Indiana (May 6th primary, 72 pledged delegates)
IN CD-01: 6 delegates
I estimate that blacks will makeup 25% of all voters in the First District (the second highest percentage in that state). Nevertheless, the district has a slighter lower than average level of education, and I anticipate the white vote will break 60-40 for Clinton. Obama should pull out a narrow popular vote victory here, but not the big margin that he needs to win that state.
Allocation of CD-01 delegates
Clinton 48%, Obama 52%
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 3 pledged delegates
IN CD-02: 6 delegates
Despite the presence of Notre Dame University, the Second District has an even lower lever of education than the First District. I also anticipate that blacks will make up only 11% of the electorate here. I anticipate a solid victory for Clinton, but not enough to pick up any delegates.
Allocation of CD-02 delegates
Clinton 55%, Obama 45%
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 3 pledged delegates
IN CD-03: 4 delegates
The Third District is located in the Northeast and is considered solid Clinton country. Only about 8% of the electorate should be black, and the district has an average level of education. Obama should do well enough in Ft. Wayne to keep it somewhat close, and I don’t anticipate Clinton gaining any delegates out of the Third.
Allocation of CD-03 delegates
Clinton 54%, Obama 46%
Hillary Clinton: 2 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates
IN CD-04: 4 delegates
The Fourth District is one of the most conservative districts in the state, but it includes Purdue University. As a result it is second most educated district in the state. In spite of blacks making up less than 5% of the anticipated electorate, I project that Clinton will only narrowly win the Fourth and get no delegates out of it.
Allocation of CD-04 delegates
Clinton 52%, Obama 48%
Hillary Clinton: 2 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates
IN CD-05: 4 delegates
Many people think the Fifth District, which is represented by Dan Burton and only gave John Kerry 28% of the vote, is going to break heavily for Clinton. I disagree. The Fifth District is, by far, the most educated in the state. I actually predict that Obama will win the white vote in this district and carry it easily. He won’t, however, get any delegates for his efforts.
Allocation of CD-05 delegates
Clinton 43%, Obama 57%
Hillary Clinton: 2 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates
IN CD-06: 5 delegates
The Sixth District is the only district in Indiana with an odd number of delegates. It only takes 50+1% of the vote to earn a delegate. The district houses Ball State University. Nevertheless, it has lower than average income and only about 6% of the vote is likely to be black. Clinton should cruise to a large victory here, but not a large enough one to earn more than one delegate.
Allocation of CD-06 delegates
Clinton 59%, Obama 41%
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates
IN CD-07: 6 delegates
The Seventh District is Indianapolis, and this is Obama’s stronghold. With about 43% of electorate expected to be black, I predict Obama will win by about a 63-37 margin and net about 33,000 votes out of the capital. But it won’t be enough to offset his deficits elsewhere in the state.
Allocation of CD-07 delegates
Clinton 37%, Obama 63%
Barack Obama: 4 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 2 pledged delegates
IN CD-08: 6 delegates
Allocation of CD-08 delegates
Clinton 59%, Obama 41%
Hillary Clinton: 4 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates
IN CD-09: 6 delegates
Allocation of CD-09 delegates
Clinton 59%, Obama 41%
Hillary Clinton: 4 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates
At-Large Delegates (16 delegates) and Pledged PLEO Delegates (9 delegates)
Allocation of at-large delegates
Clinton 51%, Obama 49%
Hillary Clinton: 9 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 7 pledged delegatesAllocation of pledged PLEO delegates
Hillary Clinton: 5 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 4 pledged delegates
