Indiana (May 6th primary, 72 pledged delegates)

IN CD-01: 6 delegates

I estimate that blacks will makeup 25% of all voters in the First District (the second highest percentage in that state). Nevertheless, the district has a slighter lower than average level of education, and I anticipate the white vote will break 60-40 for Clinton. Obama should pull out a narrow popular vote victory here, but not the big margin that he needs to win that state.

Allocation of CD-01 delegates
Clinton 48%, Obama 52%
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 3 pledged delegates

IN CD-02: 6 delegates

Despite the presence of Notre Dame University, the Second District has an even lower lever of education than the First District. I also anticipate that blacks will make up only 11% of the electorate here. I anticipate a solid victory for Clinton, but not enough to pick up any delegates.

Allocation of CD-02 delegates
Clinton 55%, Obama 45%
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 3 pledged delegates

IN CD-03: 4 delegates

The Third District is located in the Northeast and is considered solid Clinton country. Only about 8% of the electorate should be black, and the district has an average level of education. Obama should do well enough in Ft. Wayne to keep it somewhat close, and I don’t anticipate Clinton gaining any delegates out of the Third.

Allocation of CD-03 delegates
Clinton 54%, Obama 46%
Hillary Clinton: 2 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates

IN CD-04: 4 delegates

The Fourth District is one of the most conservative districts in the state, but it includes Purdue University. As a result it is second most educated district in the state. In spite of blacks making up less than 5% of the anticipated electorate, I project that Clinton will only narrowly win the Fourth and get no delegates out of it.

Allocation of CD-04 delegates
Clinton 52%, Obama 48%
Hillary Clinton: 2 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates

IN CD-05: 4 delegates

Many people think the Fifth District, which is represented by Dan Burton and only gave John Kerry 28% of the vote, is going to break heavily for Clinton. I disagree. The Fifth District is, by far, the most educated in the state. I actually predict that Obama will win the white vote in this district and carry it easily. He won’t, however, get any delegates for his efforts.

Allocation of CD-05 delegates
Clinton 43%, Obama 57%
Hillary Clinton: 2 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates

IN CD-06: 5 delegates

The Sixth District is the only district in Indiana with an odd number of delegates. It only takes 50+1% of the vote to earn a delegate. The district houses Ball State University. Nevertheless, it has lower than average income and only about 6% of the vote is likely to be black. Clinton should cruise to a large victory here, but not a large enough one to earn more than one delegate.

Allocation of CD-06 delegates
Clinton 59%, Obama 41%
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates

IN CD-07: 6 delegates

The Seventh District is Indianapolis, and this is Obama’s stronghold. With about 43% of electorate expected to be black, I predict Obama will win by about a 63-37 margin and net about 33,000 votes out of the capital. But it won’t be enough to offset his deficits elsewhere in the state.

Allocation of CD-07 delegates
Clinton 37%, Obama 63%
Barack Obama: 4 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 2 pledged delegates

IN CD-08: 6 delegates

The Eighth District is the most fascinating in the state. Terre Haute is Evan Bayh’s homebase. But the district also hugs the Illinois border. And Obama should do very well in Evansville, the districts largest city, where the mayor has endorsed him. The Eighth has the second lowest level of education in the state and only about 5% of the electorate is expected to be black. Overall, this is strong Clinton country. She needs 58.5% of the vote to get a delegate split. I have her getting fifty-nine. That’s as close as you can get.

Allocation of CD-08 delegates
Clinton 59%, Obama 41%
Hillary Clinton: 4 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates

IN CD-09: 6 delegates

The Ninth District hugs the Kentucky border. It also includes some exurbs of Cincinnati. And it is the home of the University of Indiana in Bloomington. Despite the University, the overall level of education in the district is slightly below average for the state. It’s also the whitest district in the state. I’m hopeful that the numbers will be better than what my model projects, but I have Clinton pulling in 59% and just barely getting a 4-2 split.

Allocation of CD-09 delegates
Clinton 59%, Obama 41%
Hillary Clinton: 4 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates

At-Large Delegates (16 delegates) and Pledged PLEO Delegates (9 delegates)

Overall, I project that Clinton will narrowly win the state by a 51-49 margin. That’s what my model gave me. That means we’ll have the following splits among the at-large and PLEO delegates.

Allocation of at-large delegates
Clinton 51%, Obama 49%
Hillary Clinton: 8 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 8 pledged delegates

Allocation of pledged PLEO delegates
Hillary Clinton: 5 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 4 pledged delegates

That comes out to a 38-34 delegate split in favor of Clinton and an estimated popular vote victory of a mere 25,000 votes.

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