Statistics have a way of smashing punditry:
In hypothetical general election head-to-heads, Obama leads McCain by slim 51 to 44 percent margin, with the public split 49 percent for Clinton to McCain’s 46 percent. Against McCain, Obama does better than Clinton with African Americans, those with college degrees or greater education and among younger voters. Clinton, however, draws more support than does Obama against McCain among older white voters, white women and whites with family incomes under $50,000 a year.
Against either Democrat, age could be a significant obstacle for McCain. Only three in 10 said they were “entirely comfortable” with the prospect of a 72-year-old newly-elected president, about half as many as said they would be similarly comfortable with an African American or female president.
I think people need to stop the hand wringing.
Joe Lieberman needs to be told to stop this sh^^t
Joe just has a natural gift at being a malignant, smear-happy horse’s ass. He chooses to share his gift…
November’s a long way away, ain’t it?
Never underestimate the breathtaking audacity of the Republican machine when it comes to stealing an election. Call it hand wringing if you will but the last two presidential contests were very likely stolen from Democrats. How can any doubts about the coming vote be cast as unwarranted? And don’t counter that this time we’ll be prepared for it. Echoes of 2004? Hell, the bastards will storm a recount session and physically intimidate poll workers into shutting it down. Won’t it be a Republican controlled Justice Department we’ll be calling upon to stop such shenanigans? Fat chance of getting help there. SCOTUS? Hah! Nah, call it hand wringing, I’ll call it logically expecting the worst they can do.
they lost control of the senate last time. they’re losing special elections — in “safe” districts. the so-called “machine” is off its wheels and the drivers can’t turn it around. november can’t come soon enough.
Yep, it is looking good, and I’ll betcha that when Obama officially gets the nom, his numbers will beat McCain even more senseless than his usual brand of senseless (which is already extremely senseless!) . But I’m still kinda nervous about the Bradley/Wilder/I’m-Just-Your-Friendly-Neighborhood-Closet-Racist Effect.
A slim 51 to 44 percent margin? 49 and 46 is a split? Must be that new math.
Yeah, ”51 to 44” ain’t that “slim” in my book (especially if we’re the “51”) — “convincing” I’d call it.
polling statistics usually come with a margin of error, usually 3%.
so 51 to 44 could actually be 48 to 47.
and 49 and 46 could be a dead heat.
I understand MOE, but this writer is asserting a tie/split/dead heat as a certainty. That is not necessarily so.
62 in the senate, baby!