So presidency of George Bush Junior is nearing its end. Some say it was catastrophic. Americans may breathe easier and hope for better administration and better management of international affairs by whatever administration takes over next January. What chances are for significant change in atmosphere and content of international politics?
Bush still travels over the world, makes outrageous speeches. His deputy Cheney is sometimes shown in TV news but mostly keeps himself discreet, no doubt busy with wheeling-dealing. But as everybody understands Bush’s administration is lame-duck and lacks Congress support so it is not dealt with too seriously. Officials in his team like Doctor Rice and probably he himself think more about their legacy and that’s the reason behind frenetic search for any international success.
Yet success remains elusive. Late last year the Israeli-Palestinian peace process was recovered from oblivion in the dustbin. After Bush speeches in the Middle East even optimists should admit that chances to clinch new Camp David-style agreement are about nil.
What more? Living currently in India I can’t omit much-touted Indo-US nuclear deal. It seems the deal fell apart even before reaching US Congress. Instead of nuclear reactors India agreed to buy gas from Iran.
What else? You know probably more than me what’s up with Iraq and Iran and the war on terror, recently Pakistan and Afghanistan were in the spotlight. Yes, there were no new 9-11 scale disasters but there were many wars, many human rights abuses and hundreds of thousands of victims. If media is to be believed American economy is stumbling.
Overall it’s sad picture and the best indicator that Bush understands he has nothing to boast about is apathy of the outgoing administration in electoral process. During his first term as president some thought he would advance chances for his brother especially after pulling out crucial victory in Florida, and if I remember correctly Bush himself praised performance of John Ellis `Jeb’ Bush. Yet Bush family is nowhere to be seen this time around. No chances for turning the White House into the Grand Old Family fiefdom.
The hard work of the current administration ushered us in era of multiple crises from high oil prices, food shortages (with divertion of arable lands to produce biofuel), assertive Russia, belligerent Iran, Venezuela, rise of extremism and so on.
What about international reputation of US? Doctor Rice usually bristles at suggestions that US has lost high moral ground. Radicals, especially in Islamic world, tend to regard US as new “empire of evil”. More somber people continue to deal with US, at the same time disapproving the work of this administration and separating people of US from its government. Few people (more in such countries as UK, Japan, Australia, Canada, and of course Israel) wholeheartedly support Bush’s neocon policies.
How and where this administration committed mistakes? Whether the reason was its incompetence as some suggest? I am afraid there is no easy explanation. Despite Mr Bush verbal gaffes he is very much in the knowledge what’s going on in different parts of the world and proved to be very cunning politician (if leaked transcripts of his conversations with other leaders for example with former Spanish PM Aznar are true). His team uses services of the best specialists in many fields. Yet there are no results, or only disastrous results of his policies.
That’s why all the work of his administration should be patiently investigated and analyzed by whatever administration takes over in January preferably in advance to have plans to make corrections.
Some corrections are very easy to make, they are too obvious. Europeans (as well as Japanese, Australians, Canadians, etc) are waiting for better coordination process, and for concessions in topics dearest to them such as climate change. There are questions how to deal with Russia, China, India, Brazil and so on. But these are not really corrections which will be significant.
New president and his administration will have on their hands improbably difficult problems – what to do with Iraq, Afghanistan and the war on terror and Palestinian-Israel conflict. So far (at least I did not notice) there was no fresh thinking in America about new approaches to these vital issues except declared desires by Mr Obama and Mrs Clinton to bring their troops home. Mrs Clinton was talking even about victory in Afghanistan, it’s interesting how she can pull out victory in the country where British and Russian empires had stumbled.
Just a few thoughts on these issues. Take Iraq ravaged by civil war, lack of security, etc. What is plan for new Iraq? Is it possible Iraq turn into prosperous democracy in few years under foreign occupation? Withdrawal of troops may result in occupation of the country or its parts by neighbours – what if Turkey occupies Iraqi Kurdistan and declare its citizens Turks and will continue it appalling policy of cultural assimilation? What will Iran and Saudi Arabia do in such case? Or different scenario – after withdrawal of troops Iraq is falling under Iranian influence if not fully swallowed. No matter how inept or corrupt Arab governments are they will not be amused.
Will new administration restrain let alone criticize Israel in its treatment of Palestinians or its Arab neighbours? Very unlikely and not because Israel may (or will dare) return charge to Americans in overreacting and being indiscriminate in response to terrorist strikes – after 9-11 some countries were overrun and governments deposed because of that massive terror strike. It’s actually the task of special police forces to catch or eliminate culprits. America under Bush responded to 9-11 by wars but they did not yield results in elimination or capture of culprits or halting spread of terrorist networks.
This lead us to Afghanistan where Taleban government, very similar in its outlook and isolation to Burmese generals yet was steeped firmly in local traditions. Taleban mistake was in harbouring terrorists but hardly in its draconian social practices, demolition of ancient treasures or economic incompetence. These were questions for Afghans to decide do they need such government or not. Was it possible to separate Taleban from terrorists and demand simply handing over OBL and company and if not worked trying other methods? This war on terror in Afghanistan (and Pakistan) is unwinnable, casualties and unpopularity of the puppet government only fuel resentment and what then. Americans will come soon to the same conclusion Russians came 2 decades before – the war will end only with extermination of local population as it feeds insurgency without end in sight.
That’s why I do not expect on these issues too much of difference from new American administration, neither Democrat nor Republican. Iraq will be likely under foreign occupation even in January of 2010, the war in Afghanistan will still rage on. US will continue its unconditional support for Israel in foreseeable future and chances for Israeli-Palestinian peace will be dim as ever. And Bush policies will be vindicated as he dragged America in wars which are just continuations of policies of previous administrations.
