The battle for pledged delegates is now over and Barack Obama has won. There is now only one fantasyland scenario remaining where Obama has not seized the most pledged delegates.
Option 1: No FL & MI: Pledged Delegate Majority (PDM) Clinched with the Oregon polls closed.
Option 2: Seat MI as 69-59. PDM Clinched with the Oregon polls closed.
Option 3: Seat FL with 1/2 votes (supers get full vote). No Michigan delegates. PDM Clinched with the Oregon polls closed.
Option 4: FL 1/2 vote, MI 69-59 split. PDM Clinched with the Oregon polls closed.
Option 5: Seat FL & MI based on the elections that have taken place. Not clinched tonight.
The decision on what to do about Michigan and Florida will be made on May 31st. Unless they go with Option 5, Obama will be able to count on the endorsement of the Pelosi Club of superdelegates that have pledged to endorse the winner of the pledged delegate count. Former President Jimmy Carter is in this group. Obama maintains an insurmountable popular vote lead of over half a million votes, although if you count Michigan (and give him no votes) and the flawed results from Florida, Clinton has a popular vote lead of 71,000 votes. Of course, it makes no sense to give Obama no votes from Michigan, and if you give him a reasonable share of those votes, even this strained lead for Clinton is erased. There are many superdelegates that have pledged to wait and see if Clinton can win the popular vote before endorsing Obama. It is now clear that she cannot accomplish that task except by counting all her votes from Michigan and Florida, while denying Obama any votes from Michigan. That situation cannot change in the remaining three contests.
What will be interesting to see today is how many delegates come out for Obama. Thus far, the trickle strategy of announcing two to five delegates a day has been quite effective. But I think that strategy is no longer a good one going forward. It will be best to erase any lingering doubt about the nomination now that Obama has won the pledged delegate count and the popular vote count.
Meanwhile, it doesn’t look like Clinton is going to concede any time soon.
She has also disputed the notion that, by staying in, she was unintentionally fostering a racial divide with white voters in some states overwhelmingly supporting her.
Rather, in private conversations and in interviews, Mrs. Clinton has begun asserting that she believes sexism, rather than racism, has cast a shadow over the primary fight, a point some of her supporters have made for months. Advisers say that continuing her candidacy is partly a means to show her supporters — especially young women — that she is not a quitter and will not be pushed around.
Indeed, she is headed to Florida today to undermine the legitimacy of Obama’s lead, even as it has already been demonstrated that Obama leads under all but one worst-case scenario even if you count the results from Florida. It is, in fact, her decision to make a huge issue out of Florida and Michigan that is probably the most dangerous aspect of her continuing campaign. When the DNC Rules Committee meets on May 31st, they will face the choice of giving Clinton everything she wants or furnishing the final blow that ratifies Obama’s pledged delegate lead. It’s clear that she will then rile up her supporters into some kind of Al Gore sense of outrage, and alienate them from our nominee. And, to be clear, Barack Obama is in no way responsible for the fiascoes in Michigan and, especially, Florida. I think this delegitimization of Obama’s victory is the act she will be most remembered for. And if Obama does not win the election in November, Clinton will join Ralph Nader in the left-wing Hall of Shame.
