The biggest advantage of this long primary season on the Democratic side is that, unlike McCain, Obama will emerge with information from every county in the country. Never before has a candidate had this level of granular detail about where he has support and where he is weak. Never before has a candidate had this many identified supporters. And if the Clintons are willing to turn over their data, it will double Obama’s advantage.
Obama can literally use a laser focus to campaign in those areas where he underperformed in the primaries. Mississippi is a perfect example. He did poorly in the First District and parts of the Gulf Shore region. He has an exact roadmap now to use to make inroads and turn the state into a battleground. He even has the rationale: poverty. The part of the Gulf where he did badly was also the part that was hardest hit by Hurricane Katrina. Meanwhile, the northeastern First District represents the lowest reaches of Appalachia. He can fulfill his promise to do a poverty tour with John Edwards by visiting both regions.
One of Obama’s advantages is that, while he will not win votes everywhere, he is not hated or despised by any significant number of people. Politicians, by and large, will be happy to campaign with him in almost every district in the country. You’ll notice that even on Obama’s two worst states, Kentucky and West Virginia, he has been endorsed by Sens. Byrd and Rockefeller and Reps. Nick Rahall, Ben Chandler, and John Yarmuth. He’s also been endorsed by Appalachian Reps. Rick Boucher of Virginia and Jim Cooper of Tennessee.
It will be really fascinating to look at where Obama campaigns and compare it to his performance in the primaries. He’s going to be in Nevada tomorrow and he’s campaigning in Las Vegas. Las Vegas is the area where Clinton did well enough to make up for losing in every other area of the state. I anticipate that Obama will be looking to campaign in weak spots first. As election day draws near, I expect to switch tactics and begin campaigning in his most vote-rich areas.
One thing he should do is another college tour right after Labor Day. Those students need time to converse with and convert their parents and grandparents. I expect the age-gap to be the strongest gap in this election.
