The biggest advantage of this long primary season on the Democratic side is that, unlike McCain, Obama will emerge with information from every county in the country. Never before has a candidate had this level of granular detail about where he has support and where he is weak. Never before has a candidate had this many identified supporters. And if the Clintons are willing to turn over their data, it will double Obama’s advantage.
Obama can literally use a laser focus to campaign in those areas where he underperformed in the primaries. Mississippi is a perfect example. He did poorly in the First District and parts of the Gulf Shore region. He has an exact roadmap now to use to make inroads and turn the state into a battleground. He even has the rationale: poverty. The part of the Gulf where he did badly was also the part that was hardest hit by Hurricane Katrina. Meanwhile, the northeastern First District represents the lowest reaches of Appalachia. He can fulfill his promise to do a poverty tour with John Edwards by visiting both regions.
One of Obama’s advantages is that, while he will not win votes everywhere, he is not hated or despised by any significant number of people. Politicians, by and large, will be happy to campaign with him in almost every district in the country. You’ll notice that even on Obama’s two worst states, Kentucky and West Virginia, he has been endorsed by Sens. Byrd and Rockefeller and Reps. Nick Rahall, Ben Chandler, and John Yarmuth. He’s also been endorsed by Appalachian Reps. Rick Boucher of Virginia and Jim Cooper of Tennessee.
It will be really fascinating to look at where Obama campaigns and compare it to his performance in the primaries. He’s going to be in Nevada tomorrow and he’s campaigning in Las Vegas. Las Vegas is the area where Clinton did well enough to make up for losing in every other area of the state. I anticipate that Obama will be looking to campaign in weak spots first. As election day draws near, I expect to switch tactics and begin campaigning in his most vote-rich areas.
One thing he should do is another college tour right after Labor Day. Those students need time to converse with and convert their parents and grandparents. I expect the age-gap to be the strongest gap in this election.
He needs to do another whistlestop tour, this time over a larger swath of the country, to promote both the rebuilding of our rail infrastructure and his energy policy. They’re two parts of the whole.
My favorite would be Los Angeles to Chicago, but a similar tour through the South or down the Eastern seaboard would be good too.
This is a brilliant idea, and the Obama campaign needs to be beaten over the head with it until it sinks in. Coast-to-coast high speed rail is the solution.
I agree with this analysis, and also with Omir’s whistlestop idea. Given the energy crisis, making some campaign tours by train might just work. I’m nostalgic. I saw Kennedy campaign off the back end of a train in Springfield Ohio. I still have the photos.
We lost, though.
Perhaps as much a factor as age, the divide between college-educated voters and those who have only graduated high school will probably be pronounced, as it was in 2004. Then there is the weekly churchgoers vs. the less religiously observant voter. I imagine a sixty-year-old, college educated, non-church-attending (Caucasian) voter is as almost as likely to vote for Obama as younger Caucasian voter, and perhaps more likely if that younger voter who is poorly educated and lives in one of the rustbelt states. How older (Caucasian) females vote, especially whether they split off by education, church attendance, as well as marital status, as in the past, will be interesting to see.
even if Clinton doesn’t turn over the data, Obama can work out who registered to vote in the primary, even in states that don’t keep registration by party, it won’t be hard to figure out.
then individual Clinton supporters, depending on local conditions, will contact the counterparts in the Obama organization, and give over whatever data they have.
So Obama will have plenty of data.
in my inbox ….the Obama camp wants some feedback…so I need some ideas –
just imagine the power of millions of foot soldiers during his presidency!
As for Apalachia?
Oh but for some DNA, it appears Obama won’t be the first black president!
Going forward we’re going to be reading a lot more like this
Racial heritage of six former presidents is questioned–Pittsburgh Post Gazette
Add to that, the fact Bob Barr has gotten the libertarian nomination and rallying all the hard right angry because John McCain won the republican party nomination. With all the anger on the right for their failures of the last 7 1/2 years resulting in the 2006 results, and we could see the right accepting a 4 year loss (according to their thinking) of the White House. This also includes accepting they have already lost the congress for a couple of election cycles, so they vote their conscience and hope Obama ends up like Jimmy Carter did, in a mess he didn’t create but also couldn’t solve.
But history doesn’t repeat because some want it.
Barack Obama has had to win against the strongest political machine in the democratic party since the 1960’s. He isn’t going to recreate the same mistakes Jimmy Carter did in the 1970’s because instead of just challenging for the white house, Obama is trying to change the landscape while he captures the White House.
The right seems to think Obama is a second coming of Jimmy Carter, but instead he is a cross between John Kennedy and Teddy Roosevelt both who changed the landscape because the times demanded it.
Didn’t Childress in MS-08 distance himself from Obama when the GOP tried to tie them together?
He did distance himself slightly but Childers is from the First District (the district that voted overwhelmingly for Clinton). Despite that, I don’t think Childers would mind campaigning with Obama.
In fact, I think it’s key to Obama winning the state. He cannot lose the First District by 50-60 points, but if he can lose it by 30, he’ll be in decent shape to carry Mississippi.
I like Omir’s idea, too — and I remember BooMan doing a thread about something similar. Obama will have all that voter data to work with, and it will be just as detailed and useful as all his donor data, which is itself worth, well… a FORTUNE!
College tours are good. The age-gap contagion that I’ve heard about over and over during the primaries is going to be vitally important, I think. Among these parents and grandparents, many already have misgivings to one degree or another about four more years of Bush by proxy, and all they need is a push to get them into our camp unless they’re die-hard RNC-types to begin with.
Since you mentioned Mississippi, I think Obama can make a decent run at picking us off Magoo. If we can get the black vote through the roof (Barbour will try to pull something, though), and give Obama 95% or more, and if he can improve a little from his primary numbers with my fellow whiteys (which as the nominee should be doable), it could happen, though it would be close. I think the three coastal counties did better for Obama than I thought, but the three near-coastal counties didn’t — although that stands to reason. I think Kerry probably pulled 20% or something of the white vote in MS in ’04, but I honestly think Obama could do better. Seriously. And too, Obama will be much better known everywhere going into November as the standard bearer of the Party. The more people get to know him the more they’ll like him — even among a surprising number of moderate whites in the South, I guarantee you. If Obama campaigned here in the 4th with Gene Taylor and maybe Bennie Thompson, and maybe even that theocratic turd Musgrove, it would do him a lot of good. Edwards would be great. Key: Katrina recovery. Barbour has screwed that all to hell — he’s dumped everything into Casino Row and the Port. I’d like to see Obama go into the 1st CD, too. Childers’ results were very encouraging, and Edwards could help there some too, I think.
I just have to mention as an aside that a sky-high black voter turnout might just get us that Senate seat we’re after outright. Wicker’s scared as hell, that’s for sure — he’s already running buttloads of TV ads here on the coast and November’s a while away. I’m looking forward to this!
Obama’s Cross-Country Whistle Stop Tour: Rebuilding Our Nation
Like it. And it’s not just natural disasters. We have a crumbling infrastructure. Bridges, levees, dams, complete highway systems, who knows what else. Disaster preparedness, too — which is a legitimate national security issue, as well. There’s a big one coming on the West Coast at some point. We’re not ready. AND it’s almost hurricane season again. NOLA gets a direct hit — which Katrina wasn’t — from a cat 3 or more, and it’s done.
We need to remember that there is no one way that people have become Obama supporters. We need to use all of our tools to persuade voters. I agree, college students educating their elders is important.
Here is another tool: How many women aged 55 years or older have always supported Obama? Ask them how they made that decision. A thoughtful adult decision has more street credibility than, “My child told me to.” Let’s actively collect these testimonies.