According to DNC legal analysis, the DNC has no choice but to strip Florida and Michigan of half their delegates. There is an option to restore their delegations to full strength, but that cannot be done before the Credentials Committee meets at the convention and would ultimately require a vote by the full delegation in Denver. So, let’s look at the New Math. Without Florida and Michigan, there are a total of 4,049 delegates of all types. That is why the magic number has been listed as 2,025 (the minimum for a majority). Including pledged superdelegates, Obama is now within 46 delegates of reaching that magic number. To calculate the new magic number once Florida and Michigan are included at half strength, we need to do some math.
If the DNC really means what it says, it will strip all the Florida and Michigan delegates (including superdelegates) of half their vote. That means Florida will have 105.5 delegates and Michigan will have 78.5 delegates. If we add these 184 new delegates to the 4,049 preexisting delegates, we have a total of 4,233 delegates at the convention. To get a majority, a candidate will need 2,117. It’s also possible that the DNC will cut the pledged delegates by half, but give the superdelegates full votes. If they do that, there will be 4,260.5 delegates at the convention and, in that case, 2130.5 will be the magic number.
As for how MI delegates will be apportioned, I think Poblano is correct that the best split would be 69-59 for Clinton (which matches the Michigan party’s proposal), but halved as per DNC regulations. So, let’s give Clinton 34.5 delegates and Obama 29.5 delegates. If Florida’s results are left standing but halved, Clinton would get 52.5 delegates, Obama would get 38 delegates, and Edwards would get 2 delegates. This adds up to 87 new delegates for Clinton, 67.5 new delegates for Obama, and 2 new delegates for Edwards. Plugging that into the current numbers, we get this:
- Obama: 1979 + 67.5= 2,046.5
Clinton: 1780 + 87= 1,867
Edwards: 7 + 2= 9
Using the magic number of 2,117, this would leave Obama needing 70.5 superdelegates and Clinton needed 250 to secure the nomination. However, there are still three contests left. Puerto Rico has 55 delegates, Montana has sixteen, and South Dakota has fifteen. Using Slate’s Delegate Counter, and going by the polls that are available, I estimate the Clinton will win 44 delegates in the remaining three contests to 42 for Obama. Let’s plug those numbers in.
- Obama: 2,046.5 + 42= 2,088.5
Clinton: 1,867 + 44= 1,911
Edwards: 9 + 0= 9
This means Obama needs approximately 28.5 superdelegates to win the nomination, while Clinton needs approximately two hundred and six. It also means that Obama should finish the primary season with a delegate lead of 177.5 and a pledged delegate lead of one hundred and thirty-two. If Edwards’ nine delegates follow his recommendation and vote for Obama, he is down to needing 19.5 superdelegates.
These numbers will be slightly more favorable to Clinton if Michigan and Florida’s superdelegates get a full vote, and it doesn’t take into account that Clinton may have a better than 50-50 split in Michigan and Florida’s superdelegate vote. Nevertheless, we have learned two things. Obama will need to announce the support of approximately 30 superdelegates between now and June 3rd in order to be able to claim that he has won the majority of delegates the night of the last contests. So, Mark Ambinder’s report is quite compelling:
Neither the Clinton nor the Obama campaign is clear what the DNC’s rules and bylaws committee will do on May 31; depending upon how or whether they re-allocate delegates, Obama could wind up within to 20 to 30 votes of the nomination — a situation rectifiable by a piddling performance in Puerto RIco, South Dakota and Montana — or more than 100 delegates short, requiring solid performances in those states plus a few dozen superdelegate endorsements to put him over the top.
To prepare for that eventuality, the Obama campaign has, for the first time, really, begun to bank delegates. Sources close to the campaign estimate that as many as three dozen Democratic superdelegates have privately pledged to announce their support for Obama on June 4 or 5. The campaign is determined that Obama not end the first week in June without securing the support of delegates numbering 2026 — or 2210, as the case may be.
The case may be: 2,117. And three dozen superdelegates will do the trick.
