The New Math

According to DNC legal analysis, the DNC has no choice but to strip Florida and Michigan of half their delegates. There is an option to restore their delegations to full strength, but that cannot be done before the Credentials Committee meets at the convention and would ultimately require a vote by the full delegation in Denver. So, let’s look at the New Math. Without Florida and Michigan, there are a total of 4,049 delegates of all types. That is why the magic number has been listed as 2,025 (the minimum for a majority). Including pledged superdelegates, Obama is now within 46 delegates of reaching that magic number. To calculate the new magic number once Florida and Michigan are included at half strength, we need to do some math.

If the DNC really means what it says, it will strip all the Florida and Michigan delegates (including superdelegates) of half their vote. That means Florida will have 105.5 delegates and Michigan will have 78.5 delegates. If we add these 184 new delegates to the 4,049 preexisting delegates, we have a total of 4,233 delegates at the convention. To get a majority, a candidate will need 2,117. It’s also possible that the DNC will cut the pledged delegates by half, but give the superdelegates full votes. If they do that, there will be 4,260.5 delegates at the convention and, in that case, 2130.5 will be the magic number.

As for how MI delegates will be apportioned, I think Poblano is correct that the best split would be 69-59 for Clinton (which matches the Michigan party’s proposal), but halved as per DNC regulations. So, let’s give Clinton 34.5 delegates and Obama 29.5 delegates. If Florida’s results are left standing but halved, Clinton would get 52.5 delegates, Obama would get 38 delegates, and Edwards would get 2 delegates. This adds up to 87 new delegates for Clinton, 67.5 new delegates for Obama, and 2 new delegates for Edwards. Plugging that into the current numbers, we get this:

    Obama: 1979 + 67.5= 2,046.5
    Clinton: 1780 + 87= 1,867
    Edwards: 7 + 2= 9

Using the magic number of 2,117, this would leave Obama needing 70.5 superdelegates and Clinton needed 250 to secure the nomination. However, there are still three contests left. Puerto Rico has 55 delegates, Montana has sixteen, and South Dakota has fifteen. Using Slate’s Delegate Counter, and going by the polls that are available, I estimate the Clinton will win 44 delegates in the remaining three contests to 42 for Obama. Let’s plug those numbers in.

    Obama: 2,046.5 + 42= 2,088.5
    Clinton: 1,867 + 44= 1,911
    Edwards: 9 + 0= 9

This means Obama needs approximately 28.5 superdelegates to win the nomination, while Clinton needs approximately two hundred and six. It also means that Obama should finish the primary season with a delegate lead of 177.5 and a pledged delegate lead of one hundred and thirty-two. If Edwards’ nine delegates follow his recommendation and vote for Obama, he is down to needing 19.5 superdelegates.

These numbers will be slightly more favorable to Clinton if Michigan and Florida’s superdelegates get a full vote, and it doesn’t take into account that Clinton may have a better than 50-50 split in Michigan and Florida’s superdelegate vote. Nevertheless, we have learned two things. Obama will need to announce the support of approximately 30 superdelegates between now and June 3rd in order to be able to claim that he has won the majority of delegates the night of the last contests. So, Mark Ambinder’s report is quite compelling:

Neither the Clinton nor the Obama campaign is clear what the DNC’s rules and bylaws committee will do on May 31; depending upon how or whether they re-allocate delegates, Obama could wind up within to 20 to 30 votes of the nomination — a situation rectifiable by a piddling performance in Puerto RIco, South Dakota and Montana — or more than 100 delegates short, requiring solid performances in those states plus a few dozen superdelegate endorsements to put him over the top.

To prepare for that eventuality, the Obama campaign has, for the first time, really, begun to bank delegates. Sources close to the campaign estimate that as many as three dozen Democratic superdelegates have privately pledged to announce their support for Obama on June 4 or 5. The campaign is determined that Obama not end the first week in June without securing the support of delegates numbering 2026 — or 2210, as the case may be.

The case may be: 2,117. And three dozen superdelegates will do the trick.

The New Math

According to DNC legal analysis, the DNC has no choice but to strip Florida and Michigan of half their delegates. There is an option to restore their delegations to full strength, but that cannot be done before the Credential Committee meets at the convention and would ultimately require a vote by the full delegation in Denver. So, let’s look at the New Math. Without Florida and Michigan, there are a total of 4,049 delegates of all types. That is why the magic number has been listed as 2,025 (the minimum for a majority. Including pledged superdelegates, Obama is now within 46 delegates of reaching that magic number. To calculate the new magic number once Florida and Michigan are included at half strength, we need to do some math.

If the DNC really means what it says, it will strip all the Florida and Michigan delegates (including superdelegates) of half their vote. That means Florida will have 105.5 delegates and Michigan will have 78.5 delegates. If we add these 184 new delegates to the 4,049 preexisting delegates, we have a total of 4,233 delegates at the convention. To get a majority, a candidate will need 2,117. It’s also possible that the DNC will cut the pledged delegates by half, but give the superdelegates full votes. If they do that, there will be 4,260.5 delegates at the convention and, in that case, 2130.5 will be the magic number.

As for how MI delegates will be apportioned, I think Poblano is correct that the best split would be 69-59 for Clinton (which matches the Michigan party’s proposal), but halved as per DNC regulations. So, let’s give Clinton 34.5 delegates and Obama 29.5 delegates. If Florida’s results are left standing but halved, Clinton would get 52.5 delegates, Obama would get 38 delegates, and Edwards would get 2 delegates. This adds up to 87 new delegates for Clinton, 67.5 new delegates for Obama, and 2 new delegates for Edwards. Plugging that into the current numbers, we get this:

    Obama: 1979 + 67.5= 2,046.5
    Clinton: 1780 + 87= 1,867
    Edwards: 7 + 2= 9

Using the magic number of 2,117, this would leave Obama needing 70.5 superdelegates and Clinton needed 250 to secure the nomination. However, there are still three contests left. Puerto Rico has 55 delegates, Montana has sixteen, and South Dakota has fifteen. Using Slate’s Delegate Counter, and going by the polls that are available, I estimate the Clinton will win 44 delegates in the remaining three contests to 42 for Obama. Let’s plug those numbers in.

    Obama: 2,046.5 + 42= 2,088.5
    Clinton: 1,867 + 44= 1,911
    Edwards: 9 + 0= 9

The New Math

According to DNC legal analysis, the DNC has no choice but to strip Florida and Michigan of half their delegates. There is an option to restore their delegations to full strength, but that cannot be done before the Credential Committee meets at the convention and would ultimately require a vote by the full delegation in Denver. So, let’s look at the New Math. Without Florida and Michigan, there are a total of 4,049 delegates of all types. That is why the magic number has been listed as 2,025 (the minimum for a majority. Including pledged superdelegates, Obama is now within 46 delegates of reaching that magic number. To calculate the new magic number once Florida and Michigan are included at half strength, we need to do some math.

If the DNC really means what it says, it will strip all the Florida and Michigan delegates (including superdelegates) of half their vote. That means Florida will have 105.5 delegates and Michigan will have 78.5 delegates. If we add these 184 new delegates to the 4,049 preexisting delegates, we have a total of 4,233 delegates at the convention. To get a majority, a candidate will need 2,117. It’s also possible that the DNC will cut the pledged delegates by half, but give the superdelegates full votes. If they do that, there will be 4,260.5 delegates at the convention and, in that case, 2130.5 will be the magic number.

As for how MI delegates will be apportioned, I think Poblano is correct that the best split would be 69-59 for Clinton, but halved as per DNC regulations. So, let’s give Clinton 34.5 delegates and Obama 29.5 delegates. If Florida’s results are left standing but halved, Clinton would get 52.5 delegates, Obama would get 38 delegates, and Edwards would get 2 delegates.

Carter rebukes Europe: Stop kissing up…

…to Israel and the US on the matter of human rights in Gaza and much more.

This news was published on Tuesday, May 27, 2008 by The Guardian/UK and republished in the US by CommonDreams.Org, an internet news source. The article is entitled: Carter Urges `Supine’ Europe to Break With US Over Gaza Blockade and was written by Jonathan Steele and Jonathan Freedland.

My only question after reading this article was: where is American mainstream media in reporting this news? It is a damned shame when Jimmy Carter, a former president, a Nobel Peace Prize winner, and a world-class humanitarian, must go to Europe to address audiences about human rights crimes in which the US is a participant.
“Ex-president says the EU is colluding in a human rights crime (in Gaza)”, was the byline.

Quoting Jimmy Carter,

Britain and other European governments should break from the US over the international embargo on Gaza, former US president Jimmy Carter told the Guardian yesterday. Carter, visiting the Welsh border town of Hay for the Guardian literary festival, described the EU’s position on the Israeli-Palestinian dispute as “supine” and its failure to criticise the Israeli blockade of Gaza as “embarrassing”.

Referring to the possibility of Europe breaking with the US in an interview with the Guardian, he said: “Why not? They’re not our vassals. They occupy an equal position with the US.”

The blockade on Hamas-ruled Gaza, imposed by the US, EU, UN and Russia – the so-called Quartet – after the organisation’s election victory in 2006, was “one of the greatest human rights crimes on Earth,” since it meant the “imprisonment of 1.6 million people, 1 million of whom are refugees”. “Most families in Gaza are eating only one meal per day. To see Europeans going along with this is embarrassing,” Carter said.

Read the rest of the Guardian article at the above link. It describes recent ceasefire terms that Carter negotiated in Syria, which were agreeable to Hamas. If Israel stops its air and ground strikes, Hamas would halt rocket attacks, and it was Carter’s hope that Israel would accept the terms being communicated through the Egyptians. Hamas had called for a ceasefire with Israel over a half dozen times in the past year and had imposed a voluntary ceasefire on itself for one month to no avail.

Carter criticized the Quartet’s policy of not talking to Hamas, but also took on Elliot Abrams, a White House national security official he called “a very militant supporter of Israel,” which he implied was a stumbling block. Carter also spoke about America’s involvement in torturing prisoners, saying he wanted the next US president to promise never to do so again.

More About the CA Marriage Ruling

So much has been written out there about the California marriage ruling, and I’ve read so much of it, that I can’t possibly write a post in response to each of them. In fact, some of them I’d just agree with and not add much more. So, this seems like as good a time as any for a round-up post of some of the most interesting stuff I’ve come across as bloggers celebrate and critique (sometimes simultaneously) the California ruling.

So, here goes.

First, Kip manages with just a few “hasty stitches,” as Kip calls them, to cut through the legalese and underscores some aspects of the ruling that were totally lost on me. But then, of the two of us, he’s the on with the law degree.

I find especially frustrating the critiques of the decision relative to the gains California gays have made through the legislative process. The idea that gays’ ability to obtain a few crumbs — or even a comprehensive Domestic Partner Rights and Responsibilities Act — from benevolent legislators at some point in the past somehow negates the fact that gays are a permanently disadvantaged minority politically (or that there is no basis, under any standard of review, to allow this “just one bit of unfairness” to endure) is as baseless a proposition as the notion that “tradition” is a valid excuse for perpetuating injustice. It is the same sort of cruel drivel that Justice Scalia spewed in his vitriolic Lawrence dissent.

> Similarly, Judge Baxter’s dissent, making this same spurious argument (rather obnoxiously — “This is simply not so.”), gets it exactly backwards. It is indeed “simply so.” The fact that “California gay couples may already have 99% of what California straight couples have” shows not that corrective action is unnecessary, but exactly the opposite: That the missing 1% can only be explained by an improper cause — why deny gays that last 1% of equality except for some impermissible reason? See generally, Romer v. Evans.In conclusion, I never cease to be amazed that anyone, libertarian or not, bigot or not, gay or not, would dare suggest that there is such a thing as a “right to demand that someone else wait for their rights.” As I noted earlier, waiting to win more hearts and minds might be skillful pragmatic politics, but it is simply not the moral high ground.

I haven’t yet heard it put any better than those last two sentences.

Hans Johnson, who’s also a former coworker of mine from my HRC days, highlights a significant passage from the ruling that may resonate in other courts in years to come, and then arcs the spotlight from the bench to a personal moment that portrays what the ruling is all about.

George, in California, like Kennedy before him, held forth with a boldness informed by such extremism and determined to limit its tyranny. Similar to Kennedy, he struck down the specific provisions before him in a holding that transcends discrimination in the marriage cases. He wrote: “An individual’s sexual orientation — like a person’s race or gender — does not constitute a legitimate basis upon which to deny or withhold legal rights.”

The court applied an age-old insight to efforts by antigay leaders to infringe on the rights and freedoms of a minority group through a referendum, like the one restricting marriage rights approved by California voters in March 2000. Hostility and hype aimed at barring a group of people from accessing a right they seek recalls a line from Shakespeare: You really do protest too much, the court, in essence, ruled.

But seek marriage gay couples have. “We waited more than 50 years for the opportunity to marry,” said Phyllis Lyon, 83, a San Franciscan who, along with her partner of 56 years, was a plaintiff in the California case. “We are thrilled this day has finally come.”

This isn’t necessarily related to same-sex marriage, but this Alternet post about why we care about other people’s sex lives (well, really about attitudes towards sex workers) includes a passage that is at least relevant if not related.

But I think there’s a core assumption underlying the argument, one that makes it hard to argue against merely by offering boring old evidence. And it’s an assumption that doesn’t just apply to sex work. It’s an assumption that gets applied to all kinds of sexual variation … and not with very happy results.

The assumption is this:

“Everyone must like — and dislike — the same sexual things I do.”

“If other people do sexual things that I don’t enjoy,” the thinking goes, “they must not be enjoying it either. And there must be something dreadfully wrong with them for them to do sexual things that are so obviously not enjoyable. They must be troubled, crazy, under coercion.”

(And let’s not forget the parallel notion: If other people don’t enjoy things that I do enjoy, there must be something wrong with them as well. They must be repressed, uptight, out of touch with their bodies. The sex-positive world can fall prey to these assumptions, too. I certainly have. “Everyone is basically bisexual, if they would just be honest with themselves” … Loki in Heaven, was I ever really that young?)

The Science Avenger also takes apart some of the empty arguments against same-sex marriage, like the one from the previous post.

(Also, this autistic blogger had an interesting take on same-sex marriage and social changes.)

Earlier this week, I spoke with a colleague about the California ruling. He happens to be heterosexual, and was happy about the ruling. He said at first he thought about in terms of the political impact, until he received a phone call from a California relative who told him that she would marry her partner of several years, after the ruling. What was good news became happy news; it became personal. The most interesting thing he said was that he was not so much pro same-sex marriage as he was pro-marriage in general, regardless of whether a couple is same-sex or opposite sex. He saw it as an incredible good that out to be equally accessible to both.

I was reminded of our conversation when I read E.J. Dionne’s story of how he came around.

Imagine what it would be like not to be able to marry the person with whom you want to spend the rest of your life. Then imagine how tens of thousands of gays and lesbians in California must have felt last week when the California Supreme Court declared that homosexuals have a right to marriage under the state’s constitution.

My visceral reaction to this decision, rendered by a moderately conservative court dominated by Republicans, was to share the joy of the gay and lesbian couples you saw celebrating on television. But my practical reaction was to wonder whether this decision would speed or slow our country’s steady change of heart on the matter of recognizing committed gay relationships.

As it happens, I am one of the millions of Americans whose minds have changed on this issue. Like many of my fellow citizens, I was sympathetic to granting gay couples the rights of married people, but balked at applying the word marriage to their unions.

“That word and the idea behind it,” I wrote 13 years ago, “carry philosophical and theological meanings that are getting increasingly muddled and could become more so if it were applied even more broadly.”

Like a lot of people, I decided I was wrong. What moved me were the conservative arguments for gay marriage put forward by the writers Jonathan Rauch and Andrew Sullivan and New York Times columnist David Brooks.

They see society as having a powerful interest in building respect for long-term commitment and fidelity in sexual relationships and that gay marriage underscores how important commitment is. Prohibiting members of one part of our population from making a public and legal commitment to each other does not strengthen marriage; it weakens it.

Dionne’s words came to mind when I read Kathy G’s post about how she came around on whether pursuing marriage equality was a good political strategy.

When GLBT activists first began pressing for gay marriage, and when in fact many GLBT groups made gay marriage the top priority on their political agenda, I thought it was probably the wrong decision on their part, both strategically and substantively. It’s not that I opposed gay marriage, but I thought that other concerns — such as the right to be free of discrimination in jobs and housing, and even the right to serve in the military, were more important.

I also thought that pushing for gay marriage was too radical. Face it, gay marriage is a lot of conservative folks’ worst nightmare. Wouldn’t it be better to work up to that gradually? To ease people into it by first advocating for less controversial measures, like a statute outlawing job discrimination against GLBT folks? Or by not asking for anything more, for now, than civil unions?

Gay marriage as an issue didn’t sit right with me for another reason: it seemed not only too radical but also too conservative. There are radical traditions within the GLBT liberation movements that are sharply critical of marriage for being a conservative, bourgeois, heteronormative institution. I always found those critiques useful, as I did the (similar) feminist anti-marriage critiques. I never entirely embraced the anti-marriage ideology, but I thought there was much truth in the anti-marriage arguments, and much reason, for me and other feminists, to be deeply skeptical of marriage as an institution, and and to view the romanticized portrayals of marriage that saturate our culture with a gimlet eye.

…All of which brings me to the change of heart I’d had about gay marriage. It now seems obvious to me that focusing on gay marriage was a stroke of genius on the part of the GLBT groups. It was daring, because it dramatically took issue with conventional wisdom (the same kind of conventional wisdom that has so sagely counseled us that, among other things, Democrats shouldn’t oppose the Iraq War, or they’ll look weak, and that Democrats shouldn’t “go negative” against the President, because that will be unpopular. And on and on). But it was brilliant, because it gets people right where they live. It exposes the evil lie on the part of conservatives that being gay is about some debased, sinful lifestyle, and makes it crystal clear that what the whole gay rights debate is really about nothing more than the right to love, and to live in dignity.

That seems like a pretty good note to end on, I think.

Don’t take your eye off of Bush

Crossposted from Left Toon Lane, Bilerico Project & My Left Wing


click to enlarge
The only thing that seems to be in the news is McCain, Hillary and Obama with an occasional smattering of tornado coverage and a few blurbs about gas prices. I rarely see any recent coverage on MSM about Iraq. Last night I saw that same old tired file footage of the Al Qaeda training video that has run since 9-11 – you know, the one with the Jihadis on monkey bars.

When I see these reports this morning, it makes me think Bush wants to wait till these deals go though before the US strikes.

Iran eyes Azeri Shakh-Deniz gas from Caspian Sea

Iran is interested in buying significant amounts of gas from the second phase of ex-Soviet Azerbaijan’s largest gas field, Shakh-Deniz, in the Caspian Sea, an Azeri government source told Reuters on Wednesday.

The second, $10 billion phase of Shakh-Deniz is expected to come on stream towards the end of 2013.

“Iran’s deputy oil minister and the general manager of its state gas company spoke to the management of (Azeri state oil firm) Socar over importing some seriously large volumes from Shakh-Deniz’s second phase,” the source said.

Iran sees gas pipeline deal with India, Pakistan by mid-year

Iran’s ambassador to New Delhi said Tehran hopes to finalise a gas pipeline deal with India and Pakistan by mid-year, in an interview released on Wednesday.

The 7.5-billion-dollar project which aims to transport natural gas from Iranian oilfields to Pakistan and India was discussed during a visit to India last month Iranian by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

“It is hoped the trilateral agreement will be signed by the middle of summer this year,” Iran’s ambassador to India Sayed Mahdi Nabizadeh was quoted as saying in an interview in the latest issue of India’s Hardnews magazine.

I just think we are taking our eye off of Bush way too much. When he is NOT watched, he tends to exercise his powers of dictatorship more readily.

SPECIAL REQUEST FOR TCD FANS: The San Francisco Chronicle is pondering the addition of new cartoons for their paper – a process that seems to be initiated by Darren Bell, creator of Candorville (one of my daily reads – highly recommended). You can read the Chronicle article here and please add your thoughts to the comments if you wish. If anything, put in a good word for Darren and Candorville.

I am submitting Town Called Dobson to the paper for their consideration. They seem to have given great weight to receiving 200 messages considering Candorville. I am asking TCD fans to try to surpass that amount. (I get more than that many hate mails a day, surely fans can do better?)

This is not a race between Darren and I, it is a hope that more progressive strips can be represented in the printed press of America.

So if you read the San Francisco Chronicle or live in the Bay Area (Google Analytics tell me there are a lot of you), please send your kind comments (or naked, straining outrage) to David Wiegand at his published addresses below. If you are a subscriber, cut out your mailing label and staple it to a TCD strip and include it in your letter.

candorcomment@sfchronicle.com

or

David Wiegand
Executive Datebook Editor
The San Francisco Chronicle
901 Mission St.
San Francisco, CA 94103

An Invitation


On Wednesday, May 28 (tonight) at 8:00 p.m. EST/5:00 p.m. PST my publisher is hosting an on-line chat for the release of my second novel, Skinny Berry.

For those unfamiliar with my work, I think it is a bit of a mix between John Grisham, Michael Crichton, Carl Hiassen and Ayn Rand (if only she were progressive).

This particular novel is a fictional look at the potential problems with the introduction of genetically modified organisms into our food supply.  My publisher will be giving away a few copies of the book during the on-line chat, so if you haven’t bought the book yet, this might be a good chance to get a copy at the rock bottom price of $0.
I was very pleased with my first book signing last week.  It turned into something of a town-hall meeting on these issues, which was all I could have really hoped for in writing the book.  Lots of voices in my own community.  Just regular people.  Talking about their food supply.  Very interesting.

So, while I’m aware that I won’t get to see many of you in person at any book events, I am happy to have one event where we might at least say hello in the virtual world.  Perhaps we’ll see you there.

At Least 40,000 Vets with PTSD

Yes, Virginia, that number in the title to this post really is true. How do I know this, being the lying, liberal traitor that I am, prone to to slander our noble warriors in the US Armed Forces? Because I didn’t pull that number out of the nether regions of my body. It comes to you courtesy of the United States Department of Defense, which has just revealed this staggering statistic: that 40,000 vets of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have been diagnosed with PTSD.

WASHINGTON — The number of troops with new cases of post-traumatic stress disorder jumped by roughly 50 percent in 2007 amid the military buildup in Iraq and increased violence there and in Afghanistan.

Records show roughly 40,000 troops have been diagnosed with the illness, also known as PTSD, since 2003. Officials believe that many more are likely keeping their illness a secret.

“I don’t think right now we … have good numbers,” Army Surgeon General Eric Schoomaker said Tuesday.

Defense officials had not previously disclosed the number of PTSD cases from Iraq and Afghanistan.

The key words above are “diagnosed” and General Schoomaker’s remarks that we don’t “have good numbers.” As indeed we don’t since we know Bush administration officials have purposefully told Veterans Administration clinicians to diagnose many PTSD sufferers with the less severe “Adjustment Disorder” in order to limit their ability to claim disability benefits:

A psychologist who helps lead the post-traumatic stress disorder program at a medical facility for veterans in Texas told staff members to refrain from diagnosing PTSD because so many veterans were seeking government disability payments for the condition.

“Given that we are having more and more compensation seeking veterans, I’d like to suggest that you refrain from giving a diagnosis of PTSD straight out,” Norma Perez wrote in a March 20 e-mail to mental-health specialists and social workers at the Department of Veterans Affairs’ Olin E. Teague Veterans’ Center in Temple, Tex. Instead, she recommended that they “consider a diagnosis of Adjustment Disorder.” […]

Veterans diagnosed with PTSD can be eligible for disability compensation of up to $2,527 a month, depending on the severity of the condition, said Alison Aikele, a VA spokeswoman. Those found to have adjustment disorder generally are not offered such payments, though veterans can receive medical treatment for either condition.

Perhaps someone should ask John McCain if he supports this policy of shortchanging so many wounded veterans (and yes, PTSD is a physical wounding of the brain’s structure and function as debilitating as any other combat injury) as well as his support for George Bush’s threatened veto of the GI benefits bill which recently was passed by the Senate. Since only Republicans support the troops, I’d like to know what he thinks about our current commander-in-chief’s outrageous dereliction of duty toward our combat veterans.

Oh, I forgot. He isn’t called John McSame for nothing.

Clinton Support Calls in South Dakota

I received an odd phone call here in South Dakota from the Clinton campaign tonight. And I think I, like so many of us, have such campaign fatigue I’m not sure if I’m angry or just sad about it.  A Clinton volunteer called my home at 8 p.m. The caller identified himself and told me he was calling on behalf of Hillary Clinton. He asked if he could count on my support in the primary next week. I was very polite (stress is just not good for me these days) and said I was sorry, but I already voted and did not vote for Senator Clinton, but for Barack Obama. That should have been the end of the phone call. I told him I already voted.
Instead, the volunteer was armed with considerable information (bad information) and proceeded to interrogate me about why I voted for Obama and, more interestingly, why I didn’t vote for Hillary. The volunteer asked me what I thought about the states Clinton won that Barack didn’t. I told him it depends on what states he was talking about and that I wasn’t worried about how Obama would do in many of those states in the fall. He berated me and I mentioned states in which Obama was polling ahead of Clinton and was beating McCain. He told me I was wrong had old polling information from Ohio and Pennsylvania to back up his claims. I suggested those were old numbers and mentioned again that I didn’t think it would be a problem in the fall.

The caller got particularly exercised when he asked me why I voted “against” Senator Clinton. I noted the Rovian tactics of the campaign and refusal to work for the betterment of the party’s chances in the fall. At that, the caller became even more upset and ended the call after I said, “this phone call is indicative of the problems with the Clinton campaign and some of its supporters.”

Again, I already voted, so what’s done is done and this guy wasn’t going to change my mind. But don’t you think any normal campaign would want voters to leave a conversation such as this one with a positive or at least neutral feeling toward the volunteer and the campaign – even if they support the other candidate? I mean, after I mentioned I voted for Obama ALREADY, he could have simply said, “Well, thank you.” or “Thanks for being a/voting democrat.” or “I’m sorry to hear you won’t be voting for Clinton in the primary, but I hope you will consider voting for Sen. Clinton if she is the nominee…” – SOMETHING positive, right?

Doesn’t this seem like a poor way to cultivate future support, should Hillary need it?

I suspect that a lot of South Dakotans are receiving similar, pushy phone calls from the Clinton campaign. And it probably only signifies that Hillary’s supporters have fully bought into her victimhood to the point where they’ll browbeat fellow Democrats who simply don’t support the senator’s campaign. It’s sad, really.

McClellan Has Unkind Words for Bush

The Politico gets a pretty huge scoop.

Former White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan writes in a surprisingly scathing memoir to be published next week that President Bush “veered terribly off course,” was not “open and forthright on Iraq,” and took a “permanent campaign approach” to governing at the expense of candor and competence.

Go read the whole thing. The most explosive revelation is that McClellan thinks he was a witness to an obstruction of justice carried out between Scooter Libby and Karl Rove.

“There is only one moment during the leak episode that I am reluctant to discuss,” he writes. “It was in 2005, during a time when attention was focusing on Rove and Libby, and it sticks vividly in my mind. … Following [a meeting in Chief of Staff Andy Card’s office], … Scooter Libby was walking to the entryway as he prepared to depart when Karl turned to get his attention. ‘You have time to visit?’ Karl asked. ‘Yeah,’ replied Libby.

“I have no idea what they discussed, but it seemed suspicious for these two, whom I had never noticed spending any one-on-one time together, to go behind closed doors and visit privately. … At least one of them, Rove, it was publicly known at the time, had at best misled me by not sharing relevant information, and credible rumors were spreading that the other, Libby, had done at least as much.

“The confidential meeting also occurred at a moment when I was being battered by the press for publicly vouching for the two by claiming they were not involved in leaking Plame’s identity, when recently revealed information was now indicating otherwise. … I don’t know what they discussed, but what would any knowledgeable person reasonably and logically conclude was the topic? Like the whole truth of people’s involvement, we will likely never know with any degree of confidence.”

Of course, nothing can be proved, but we know what happened.