High Information Swing Districts: MN-03, NJ-07 and WA-08

What do these three districts have in common? All three are currently represented by Republicans and have solid pockets of high information voters, creative class professionals and symbolic analysts. They are suburban in nature and boast a healthy dose of diversity be it geographic, economic, ethnic or racial. Obama should do quite well in these districts and has already scored impressive caucus victories in both Minnesota and Washington State.

These districts and their congressional representatives also hold the key to a progressive governing coalition in an Obama administration. Much as southern democrats and Bush Dogs have held the key to democratic legislation and progressive progress over the last generation, suburban congressional democrats will exert crucial influence in energy policy, transportation, immigration, healthcare, telecommunications and technology policy over the next decade.

Over the next several weeks we will explore these districts and their candidates. We’ll examine current polling data where it exists, look at current patterns of representation and the strengths and weaknesses of the democratic challengers in each district (MN-03 and NJ-07 are open seats due to retirements by republican congressman).

MN-03, NJ-07 and WA-08 are true swing districts represented by a wide range of republican congressmen.

MN-03 is represented by moderate congressman Jim Ramstad a co-sponsor of the Wellstone Mental Health Equity Act with Patrick Kennedy. Ramstad however, has also been a solid vote for the Bush administration on the Iraq war and a reliable supporter of administration initiatives in Iraq and Afghanistan.

WA-08’s David Reichert is best known as the sheriff who caught theGreen River Serial Killer and as an out and out sexist (HT to Matt) with this 2006 ad on former Microsoft program manager Darcy Burner.

Republican Mike Ferguson is a career opportunist who first ran for Congress against Frank Pallone in NJ-06, a district in which he had never lived before. After being trounced 57% to 43%, Ferguson moved to New Providence in NJ-07 after Representative Bob Franks announced his intentions to run for the U.S. Senate. Ferguson is a native of Ridgewood NJ and attended the prestigious Delbarton School in Morristown, Notre Dame and Georgetown. Ferguson is pretty right wing for NJ, though nationally his stance against drilling in ANWAR and his stated support for the Endangered Species act have served to moderate his image.

Ferguson is the former Executive Director for the Catholic Campaign for America and there is some speculation that he is a member of Opus Dei. Another view of Opus Dei is here.

Established in 1989 The Catholic Campaign has a very distinct outlook on public life:

The growing confidence of conservative Catholics to speak as Catholics in the public square was much in evidence at the conference. Old inhibitions born of past discrimination are quickly being set aside in favor of a more self-assured, activist posture as more and more Catholics sense the need for the renewal of American public life. This trend was strongly affirmed by Neuhaus, editor of the influential journal First Things, who encouraged the audience to think of themselves not as American Catholics but as Catholic Americans, with a responsibility to contribute to the vitality of American democracy precisely by nurturing a distinctively Catholic way of being American. Conference speakers left no doubt that this includes above all an unswerving loyalty to a pro-family agenda in service of what John Paul II has termed the culture of life. The several women who spoke at the conference enthusiastically supported this emphasis, and drew a close connection between a strong pro-life stance and what Campaign board member Mary Ellen Bork referred to as an “an authentic womanhood.”

We’ll take a closer look at Ferguson and what his 2000 election and 2008 retirement in NJ-07 may mean to the district and to the conservative movement in suburbia in later posts.

The Challengers

The three democratic challengers offer different and distinct backgrounds and perspectives. Burner and Stender both fit the classic model of the modern suburban democrat; female, married, kids, with an age range running from the mid thirties to early fifties. Stender offers experience in local and state government having served as a councilwomen, mayor, county freeholder, and state assemblywoman. Burner is a former group program manager with Microsoft, a position requiring a unique combination of smarts, creativity and business discipline. Madia, the youngest of the challengers in these three districts, just turned 30 this year. Madia is an attorney and former Marine lawyer who spent a year with a downtown Minneapolis law firm prior to running for Congress.

Burner and Stender have been raising buckets of money and have both out raised their opponents to date. However Lance, the republican candidate for NJ-07, just won a six way primary battle which included Kate Whitman, daughter of former NJ Governor Christine Todd Whitman. Madia, the democratic challenger in MN-03, was involved in a DFL endorsing contest through April 12th. This quarter’s upcoming filings will shed some much needed light on where these contests are headed.

Fundraising as of 3/31/08:

Source: opensecrets.org

Each democratic challenger faces unique barriers in their respective races:

Burner must convince voters in WA-08 that she will better represent their interests than Dave Reichert and that she has the experience and skills needed to serve in the U.S. Congress. Reichert aggressively challenged Burner on her experience in 2006 and pulled out a victory in a district where John Kerry beat Bush by two and a half percentage points.

Stender must trade on her deep community roots in NJ-07. She faces an added challenge with Leonard Lance’s victory in the NJ-07 primary and Dick Zimmer’s win in NJ’s U.S. Senate primary. Both Lance and Zimmer represent a more moderate brand of horse country republicanism and have deep roots in the western portions of NJ-07. Zimmer represented portions of Hunterdon and Somerset County in the U.S. House and Lance has served as a State Senator, Senate Minority Leader and Assemblyman since 1991. He is the third generation of his family to serve in the New Jersey Legislature. Like Stender, he was born in the district and has spent most of his life there. This district will be won in the trenches and will require strong efforts in mobilizing turnout in the candidates home communities as well as among the base.

Madia faces his own challenges. A relative newcomer to the district, he’s single in a district where kids and families overrun the parks and Paneras and where school concerns predominate. A Greenberg Quinlan poll commissioned in March by his opponent during the DFL endorsement contest showed Madia trailing Erik Paulsen, his republican opponent, 43% – 40%.

Madia is counting on his ability to outwork and out hustle his republican opponent. And there’s no doubting Madia’s capacity for hard work and hustling. Madia is also pinning his hopes on a strong field effort and grassroots mobilization. He recently hired Stu Rosenberg, a regional field director for the HRC, as his new campaign manager. The campaign has held several door knocks in republican communities since Madia’s endorsement victory and plans to continue this emphasis. Minnesota has a strong tradition of grassroots organizing and the Obama campaign’s recent appointment of Jeff Blodgett as Minnesota State Director may give Madia a big boost. Blodgett is known for his strong grassroots skills and has trained many organizers and candidates through Camp Wellstone.

UPDATE, 9:02AMCST: Joe Bodell at Minnesota Campaign Report has an interview up with Madia’s new campaign manager

Future posts will look at each of these districts more in-depth. We’ll also spend some time on the fundraising numbers once they are released and polling information as it becomes available. Longer-term I’d like to take a look at the implications of these candidacies for a progressive majority.