The DCCC’s Red-to-Blue program has several categories. The first category is for open seats, which are presumed to be to lowest hanging fruit.
1. John Adler (NJ-03)
2. John Boccieri (OH-16)
3. Bobby Bright (AL-02)
4. Charlie Brown (CA-04)
5. Debbie Halvorson (IL-11)
6. Martin Heinrich (NM-01)
7. Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15)
8. Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-01)
9. Ashwin Madia (MN-03)
10. Dan Maffei (NY-25)
11. Linda Stender (NJ-07)
12. Gary Trauner (WY-AL)
The second category was for the most competitive races involving Republican incumbents.
13. Kay Barnes (MO-06)
14. Anne Barth (WV-02)
15. Darcy Burner (WA-08)
16. Robert Daskas (NV-03)
17. Steve Driehaus (OH-01)
18. Jim Himes (CT-04)
19. Christine Jennings (FL-13)
20. Larry Kissell (NC-08)
21. Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24)
22. Eric Massa (NY-29)
23. Gary Peters (MI-09)
24. Mark Schauer (MI-07)
25. Dan Seals (IL-10)
The DCCC has just released an expanded list of competitive seats:
26. AK-AL: Ethan Berkowitz
27. AZ-01: Ann Kirkpatrick
28. AZ-03: Bob Lord
29. CO-04: Betsy Markey
30. FL-21: Raul Martinez
31. FL-25: Joe Garcia
32. LA-04: Paul Carmouche
33. MD-01: Frank Kratovil
34. NM-01: Martin Heinrich
35. NM-02: Harry Teague
36. NV-03: Dina Titus
37. NY-13: Mike McMahon
38. VA-02: Glenn Nye
39. VA-11: Gerry Connolly
And they also produced a list of ’emerging races’ which they think could become competitive.
40. AL-03: Josh Segall
41. CA-50: Nick Leibham
42. FL-09: John Dicks
43. FL-18: Annette Taddeo
44. IL-06: Jill Morgenthaler
45. IL-18: Colleen Callahan
46. IN-03: Mike Montagano
47. KY-02: David Boswell
48. MN-02: Steve Sarvi
49. MN-06: El Tinklenberg
50. NC-10: Dan Johnson
51. NJ-05: Dennis Shulman
52. NV-02: Jill Derby
53. OH-02: Vic Wulsin
54. PA-03: Kathy Dahlkemper
55. PA-06: Bob Roggio
56. PA-15: Sam Bennett
57. TX-07: Michael Skelly
58. VA-05: Tom Perriello
59. VA-10: Judy Feder
Before everything is said and done, I think there will be another dozen or so seats that are competitive. I believe the Democrats will wind up winning a solid majority of these races. If I had to put a number on it right now, I’d say that the Dems will pick up between 35-45 of these seats. If the presidential election is not perceived as close, differential turnout could push that number north of fifty seats. I anticipate that maybe two or three Democratic incumbents will be defeated. You should spend a little time investigating some of these candidates to see which ones you can really support enthusiastically.
I just posted an analysis of MN-03, NJ-07 and WA-08 on openleft. It’s called High Information Swing Districts. I’ll here.
Write BooMan, write. Love when you write bro.
It’s gonna be a tidal wave for Dems and a heat wave for GOP.
Just one quibble. Robert Daskas pulled out of the race and Dina Titus got in the race so you probably shouldn’t list them both.
Still that is a very big list of winnable seats. One that should be on Red to Blue NOW IMO is Vic Wulsin. She only barely lost last time so I don’t get why she’s not on it yet this time.
good catch in Nevada, but Vic Wulsin is #53.
I’ve never heard of Bob Roggio in PA-06, but it sounds like Gerlach is going to get a breather this cycle after barely hanging on for 3 cycles in a row.
I’m already dropping $20 a month Darcy Burner’s way. I don’t live in her district, but my rep is both Democratic and safe (Jay Inslee) and I’d sure like to see Dave Reichert (R-Helmet Hair) defeated.
Actually the Washington representative I’d like to see get the boot is Doc Hastings, who represents the central and south-central parts of the state (Yakima, Wenatchee, the Tri-Cities) and did such a stellar job as head of the House Ethics Committee. But I don’t think he hax any serious competition.
Why is the DCCC getting into NY-13 before the primary? They’re staying out of some other NY races where there is a Democratic primary race ongoing.
Prediction: I am a drooling idiot next to Booman. (No offense to drooling idiots.)
Booman, thank you. You make me think I’m not just spinning my wheels.