Monica Langley, of the Wall Street Journal, is reporting on the short-lists for vice-presidential nominees:
Obama: “His focus now includes five colleagues in the U.S. Senate — Joseph Biden, Evan Bayh, Chris Dodd, Hillary Clinton and Jack Reed — and two governors, Tim Kaine of Virginia and Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas, according to Democratic operatives, though he could still make a different pick.”
McCain: “They include ex-Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, a rival during the Republican primaries; Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, with whom he has a strong friendship; and former Rep. Rob Portman of the battleground state of Ohio. Republicans also are touting Sen. John Thune of South Dakota, Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, and campaign adviser Carly Fiorina, ex-CEO of Hewlett-Packard Co., among others.”
I’m going to make a few observations about these picks.
Sen. Joe Biden: Biden is well known to the American public because he never saw a camera that he didn’t think should be filming him. He’s been in the Senate since 1973. His 1988 run for the presidency flamed out under allegations of plagiarism, and his 2008 run for the presidency never got any momentum. His greatest accomplishment in the Senate was the defeat of Robert Bork’s nomination to the Supreme Court, and he remains a totemic opponent to the religious right. His working class Catholic roots in Scranton, Pennsylvania are a plus, but his proclivity to make verbal gaffes is certainly not. Anyone that talks on tape as much Joe Biden has left encyclopedic amounts of data for opposition research. Biden chairs the Foreign Relations committee, and he knows all the major foreign leaders personally. He has a deep understanding of the State Department and its mission. At the same time, he has floated a plan for the tripartite partition of Iraq…a truly bad idea that no longer looks wise to anyone. Ideologically, he’s a moderate that is reliably liberal on most things. His vote for the Bankruptcy Bill was understandable because he represents Delaware where the credit card companies are incorporated. But it still doesn’t endear him to the left. Overall, Biden carries high risks, motivates the religous right, and doesn’t do much electorally for Obama. On the other hand, Biden is extremely smart, has excellent experience, and good relations with the press.
Sen. Evan Bayh: As Wiki reports, from 2001 to 2005, “Bayh served as Chairman of the Democratic Leadership Council (DLC). He is also a member of the Senate Centrist Coalition and helped establish the New Democrat Coalition.” Much of my motivation for opposing the candidacy of Hillary Clinton was related to her membership in the leadership of the DLC. I’d take it as a personal defeat if all that effort led to the nomination of a former DLC chairman. Yet, of all the candidates on this list, Bayh is the one most likely to make a critical difference in delivering his home state to Obama. According to 538.com, Indiana is polling too close to call. It’s hard to see an Obama-Bayh ticket failing to carry the Hoosier state and its 11 electoral votes. Bayh would make the corporate world more comfortable with an Obama presidency and help unify the Clinton/Harold Ford wing of the Democrat Party with the progressive wing. On the other hand, he’d immediately become the heir apparent to an Obama presidency, setting up an ideological battle down the line. For this reason, the selection of Bayh would depress progressive enthusiasm for Obama’s campaign, with all the associated costs.
Sen. Chris Dodd: Senator Dodd has developed excellent relations with the Progressive Movement and was the first choice for the Democratic nomination of pretty much every blogger I know. His selection would be met with great enthusiasm by the Blogosphere (in the heart, if not necessary the brain). Dodd is 64-years old, and would be McCain’s age in 2016, making him an unlikely successor. Dodd has been in Congress since 1975 and in the Senate since 1981. He’s one of the most reliably liberal members of the Senate, although his chairmanship of the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs makes him a good friend of Wall Street. Yet, considering the centrality of the banking and housing crisis to our economic problems, Dodd’s expertise would be very valuable both on the campaign trail and in the Naval Observatory. One potential problem for Dodd is a history of carousing when he was a younger man. Like Joe Biden, Sen. Dodd is a Roman Catholic.
Sen. Hillary Clinton: I assume Clinton’s name is floated here purely to show respect to her candidacy and her supporters. There is no way that Michelle Obama will approve Clinton as the running mate. However, if she is picked it will make it much easier for her most ardent supporters to back the Democratic ticket. Obama’s supporters will never stop throwing up.
Sen. Jack Reed: Senator Reed has a dynamite personal story to tell. His father was a janitor. Nevertheless, Reed was accepted into West Point and went on to be an Army Ranger and member of the 82nd airborne. Later, like Obama, he obtained a law degree from Harvard University. Reed is also a Roman Catholic, which seems to be a common thread on Obama’s short-list. Reed has been in Congress since 1991 and is a high-ranking member of the Armed Services Committee. He just accompanied Barack Obama to Afghanistan and the Middle East. In representing Rhode Island, the most Democratic state in the country, Reed doesn’t directly bring any electoral votes. But his Catholicism, his soldier’s bearing, and his good relations with the military all make him appealing and a potential vote-getter in traditionally Republican or swing constituencies. Meanwhile, he has one of the most liberal voting records in Congress and would be easily embraced by the Progressive Movement.
Gov. Tim Kaine: Governor Kaine is another Roman Catholic with a Harvard Law Degree. Raised in Missouri, Kaine has served as the mayor of Richmond, was elected Lieutenant Governor in 2001, and Governor in 2005. He is term-limited in 2009. Kaine is personally opposed to both abortion and the death penalty, although he has signed off on eight executions in his state. His position on abortion can best be described as nuanced. His selection will not be greeted happily by choice advocates, yet there is no reason to think that he would appoint anti-choice judges or seek to overturn the law. As a practical matter, Kaine is a popular governor in a state that could easily fall into Obama’s column. Virginia’s 13 electoral votes could prove decisive to the outcome and with both Kaine and the popular ex-governor Mark Warner (who is running for U.S. Senate) on the ballot, Obama would get a big boost.
Gov. Kathleen Sebelius: Sebelius is the popular governor of Kansas. Her father was once the Governor of Ohio with a base in the Cincinnati area. She is also a Roman Catholic. Prior to being elected as Governor, she served for eight years as a representative in the Kansas Legislature and eight years as the Insurance Commissioner. While calling herself ‘personally pro-life’ she has been endorsed by Planned Parenthood and has been a stalwart defender of women’s rights. She opposed a state constitutional amendment banning gay marriage. For me, Sebelius fits Obama’s ‘change’ narrative better than any of the other candidates. She has never been a member of Congress, she represents one the most traditionally Republican states in the union, if elected she would be the first woman to hold the position, and her style of governance fits in with Obama’s message of post-partisanship. She is my first choice from this list.
I would be very pleased with the selection of Sebelius, Dodd, or Reed. I’d be okay with the selection of Kaine. Biden, Bayh, or Clinton I would consider poor choices. Bayh and Clinton would be personally demoralizing.
On the Republican side, I’ll be brief.
Fmr Gov. Mitt Romney: Romney would probably be helpful to McCain in Michigan (where his father was once Governor) and in Nevada and Colorado where there is a large population of Mormons. Most Mormons are going to vote for McCain anyway, but any boost in turnout would help. On the other hand, Romney’s religious beliefs would depress turnout among evangelicals in many states. And Romney is both a record-breaking flip-flopper and personally despised by John McCain.
Gov. Tim Pawlenty: As the son of a milk truck driver, Pawlenty has some of the same rags-to-riches cache of Sen. Jack Reed. He probably cannot deliver his state to McCain and he has no foreign-policy experience, but at least he’s young at 48-years old.
Fmr. Rep. Rob Portman: Portman, who used to represent Mean Jean Schmidt’s southern Ohio district, served the Bush administration as United States Trade Representative and Director of the Office of Management and Budget. His main appeal is a counterbalance to John McCain’s cluelessness on the economy, but he could provide some marginal help to McCain in Ohio.
Sen. John Thune: Thune defeated Majority Leader Tom Daschle to win his senate seat. Young (forty-seven years-old) and attractive, he could provide some of the charisma and energy that John McCain lacks. Obama is polling close enough in South Dakota to make it possible that Thune’s selection could swing the state. However, with only three electoral votes…
Gov. Charlie Crist: Crist is the intensely sun-tanned Governor of Florida. He’s popular and would help McCain immensely in the Sunshine state. Crist recently acquired a beard wife and there are persistent rumors that he is a closeted gay man. If McCain wants the hassle that will bring with his anti-gay base then more power to him.
Fmr. Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina: Overseeing HP’s disastrous merger with Compaq hardly seems like a good qualification to be vice-president. However, in 1998, Fortune magazine listed her as the #1 “most powerful woman in business.” That’s something, anyway. She’s well educated and experienced in the business community. And, as a woman, she could add some buzz to McCain’s somnolent campaign.
None of these picks particularly frighten me. John Thune is probably the safest choice, but I can’t see him fundamentally changing the game. Fiorina is untested as a campaigner and her qualifications are dubious. Romney would be a disaster. Crist has to overcome rumors about his sexuality. And Pawlenty just doesn’t carry much juice.
