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In South Ossetia and the war zone, there are no western TV crews, just Russian and one Ukrainian. In the initial attack by Georgian forces, 12 Russian peacekeepers were killed and 150 wounded. There are 30,000 refugees crossing the border into North Ossetia. Georgia has send troops reinforcements to the province of Abkhazia. It’s clear both sides are using heavy shelling of the capital Tskhinvali and a scorced earth policy as we have seen in neighboring Chechen province. In Moscow there are protest demonstrations underway to end the bloodshed and Russian Cossack Union members are volunteering to assist S Ossatia in its defence. The satellite channel RussiaToday has live broadcast from the war zone.
Russian analysts put the blame on US policy and big Oil & Gas multinationals undermining regional stability in the region of the Black Sea, Caspian Sea and the Caucasus. The US and its western allies have provided Georgia with arms and intelligence to wage war.
Georgia proposes cease fire in S Ossetia
TBILISI, Georgia – Georgia’s President Mikhail Saakashvili proposed to declare a cease fire in the breakaway province of South Ossetia.
Georgia’s Security Council secretary, Alexander Lomaia, said Saakashvili’s proposal means that the Georgian troops will withdraw from Tskhinvali, the provincial capital of South Ossetia, and stop responding to Russian shelling. The Russian military said previously they already had driven Georgian forces out of Tskhinvali.
The US-backed Georgian regime of President Mikheil Saakashvili sent massed military units into South Ossetia on Thursday morning, after claiming that South Ossetian military forces had shelled Georgian villages, supposedly violating a unilateral cease-fire declared by Tbilisi.
While the Georgian regime initially claimed it was carrying out a “proportionate response,” it quickly became clear that it had launched an all-out military offensive aimed at conquering the region. Using artillery, tanks, truck-mounted multiple rocket launchers and war planes, the Georgian military laid siege to the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali.
Much of the city was reportedly in flames Friday. The regional parliament building had burned down, the university was on fire, and the town’s main hospital had been rendered inoperative by the bombardment. The International Red Cross reported that ambulances were unable to reach the wounded.
“As a result of many hours of shelling from heavy guns, the town is practically destroyed,” Marat Kulakhmetov, the commander of Russian peacekeepers in the territory, told the Russian news service Interfax.
Russian forces have driven Georgian troops out of Tskinvali less than a day after Tbilisi claimed it had captured the city. Making the announcement, General Vladimir Boldyrev said Russian units are continuing to push Georgian troops out of the peacekeeper-controlled zone.
Earlier on Saturday, President Medvedev said Russia would would bring the violence to an end.
In a meeting with Defence Minister Anatoly Serdyukov, Medvedev said Russian peacekeepers would attempt to “force the Georgian side to stop fighting.”
(Bloomberg) – South Ossetia has a population of about 70,000 and is connected to Russia’s North Ossetia region by a tunnel through the Caucasus Mountains. Most South Ossetian residents hold Russian passports.
Georgia is a key link in a U.S.-backed “southern energy corridor” that connects the Caspian Sea region with world markets, bypassing Russia. The BP Plc-led Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline to Turkey runs about 100 kilometers (60 miles) south of the South Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali.
The U.S. seeks to connect Central Asia natural gas supplies with European markets, skirting Russia in an attempt to weaken the grip of Russia’s state-run OAO Gazprom energy company. One planned pipeline route runs from the Georgia-Turkey border.
NATO in April committed itself to bringing Georgia into the alliance without providing a timeframe or a clear path toward membership — as Bush had pushed for — out of concern it would antagonize Russia. Putin has called the expansion of NATO toward Russian frontiers a “direct threat” and likened South Ossetia’s drive for independence to Kosovo’s from Serbia.
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A majority of South Ossetians have the Russian nationality and their separatist movement want to join North Ossetia as part of Russia. The truce agreement was broken by Georgian aggression and an attack on the capital Tskhinvali, thereby causing hundreds of deaths including Russian peacekeepers stationed at the border.
The other breakaway province of Abkhazia wants independence.
Georgia has backing by the US to antagonize the Russian bear in the region, however this may well backfire and create a Caucasian mess.
There’a another potentially crucial aspect to this new war in the Caucasus. This aspect comes the form of a DEBKAfile exclusive report: “Israel backs Georgia in Caspian Oil Pipeline Battle with Russia“.
Key excerpt:
“Last year, the Georgian president commissioned from private Israeli security firms several hundred military advisers, estimated at up to 1,000, to train the Georgian armed forces in commando, air, sea, armored and artillery combat tactics. They also offer instruction on military intelligence and security for the central regime. Tbilisi also purchased weapons, intelligence and electronic warfare systems from Israel.
These advisers were undoubtedly deeply involved in the Georgian army’s preparations to conquer the South Ossetian capital.”
≈ Cross-posted from my diary — Georgia Pulls 2,000 Troops out of Iraq to Battle Russians ≈
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence.".
“The violence is endangering regional peace, civilian lives have been lost and others are endangered. We have urged an immediate halt to the violence and a stand-down by all troops. We call for an end to the Russian bombings, and a return by the parties to the status quo of Aug. 6.”
US President George W. Bush, seen here with Russian President Vladimir Putin before a reception in the Great Hall of the People in BeijingThe president looked grim and addressed the reporters without an introduction. He left the room without taking any questions.
White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe said Bush had spoken very recently with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili and “reiterated the United States position to both leaders.”
Sky News – Georgia In State Of War With Russia
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence.".
A two-folded mission: Marines of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet take part in war game ‘Caucasus-2008’ and Russia Mobilizes Black Sea Fleet Off Georgia
(LA Times) – The George W Bush administration is adding gasoline to the fire in the Caucasus. In Tbilisi on July 10, Rice told the press, “Russia needs to be a part of resolving the problem and solving the problem and not contributing to it. I have said it to the Russians publicly. I have said it privately.”
The effect of her comments, blaming Moscow for the escalating tensions, is to signal US support for the Georgia side in their efforts to force Russian troops from South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."Saakashvili’s calling for a ceasefire! Who will trust him when on Thursday he attacked South Ossetia hours after agreeing to a ceasfire?
Russia has now bombed Gori and the port of Poti. Abkhazia has entered the fight:
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not just by weapons shipments, but also by making threats to the Russian Naval Fleet and what I heard on RussiaToday TV was the observation of mercenaries siding with the Georgian troops. A Georgian tank was destroyed operated by Ukrainians and two dead soldiers were found of possible AfroAmerican origin.
Did U.S., Israel Provocateur S. Ossetia Conflict? Does the Sun Come Up in the Morning?
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."Ah, I remember the good ol’ days, when Georgie looked into Vladi’s eyes and saw a kindred soul.
Perhaps he can use his lea-dar to get in mental communication with Vladi and figger out what the fuck is going on there.
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and saw Black Oil.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."Here’s some useful background:
Plucky Little Georgia?
two editorials written thousands of miles apart, worthy of a read:
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Israel is to stop selling military equipment to Georgia after a complaint from Moscow. The arms ban includes sales of unmanned spy planes – several of which have been shot down over Abkhazia during recent tensions between Georgia and its breakaway republics.
The Ministry of Defence in Israel imposed the weapons embargo after ministers in Jerusalem received complaints from Russia. The ban prohibits the sale of Hermes 450 UAV spy drones, made by Elbit Systems Ltd.
The decision to cut the trade is thought to be linked to growing tensions in the Caucasus and Russia’s reaction to flights of unmanned drones over the demilitarized zone between the Georgia and Abkhazia.
Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livny is reported to have reluctantly made the decision to cut arms supplies to Tbilisi after consultations with Russia.
Tbilisi had placed orders with several Israeli military manufacturers. Among the weaponry ordered were 70 million rifle cartridges, Merkava tanks, APCs, helicopters, UAVs, fire control systems and night-vision devices.
Ukraine admits to supplying weapons to Georgia
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."Putin besichtigt das Frontgebiet und droht der Nato
Well, that’s that. What’s the West going to do, impose sanctions on Russia? After this blunder on Georgia’s part, there’s no way Gorgia is going to get into NATO now.
To quote Mark Almond again:
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As dependent as the EU may be on gas imports, Russia is even more dependent on gas exports. About 90% of Russia’s total natural gas exports are delivered to European countries. When adding oil exports and other raw materials, Russia’s energy exports to the EU account for roughly 75% of Russia’s export earnings and 40% of Russia’s budget receipts. Those numbers are reinforced by the sheer value of the European markets, which “boast” retail prices at least three times as high as Russia’s domestic prices, despite the latter’s sharp increase in recent years.
Highlighting Wars Based on US (read: Bush) Foreign Policy:
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."Russia’s back!
In this episode, Bush 2 is like Bush 1. Bush 1 didn’t send a clear messaged to Hussein not to invade Kuwait, so Hussein invaded. Also, Bush 2 encouraged Iraqi Kurds to revolt, and then left them high and dry. Bush 2 seems to have done pretty much the same thing with the Georgians.
this Georgia incursion was pre-planned in an exercise July 15, …war games are not always games but a rehearsal
a gamble that Georgia, proxy for the U.S., lost. The two provinces – South Ossetia and Abkhazia – will now follow the Kosovo precedent.
Exactly. There’s an article making that connection in the New York Times, of all places. This is payback for Kosovo.
The Georgian leadership must be incredibly stupid. Don’t they realize that Russia is a great power, and they’re just a puny little fledgeling state, no matter how many arms the West sells them? By making the first move militarily, they gave Russia all the legitimation for taking back those regions that it needed.
in that same article – in the NYT’s global edition-IHT (available with registration):
seems the BushCheney administration is divided. Overnight, I listened to a radio interview of people from past GOP administrations pointing the finger at Cheney and the neocon idiots who encouraged Georgia while Putin and Bush were spectators in Beijing.
Saying that the US can’t do anything because it’s overextended is a bit disingenuous. Even if it wasn’t involved in two wars, what could the US do? No NATO country will ever get involved in a military conflict with Russia, because it’s the second nuclear power after the US, while the West is unlikely to put economic pressure on Russia because Europe depends upon Russia for its energy.
How the Iraq war is relevant however is that Russia might not have had the self-confidence to do this if the price of oil was not so high, and Bush’s war is largely responsible for that.
the adminstration official agrees that “we’re over-extended”
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MOSCOW (AFP) – Russian warships have set up a sea blockade to prevent arms and other military supplies from reaching Georgia, Interfax news agency reported Sunday quoting a source in the Russian naval command.
“Our navy sailors have been assigned the task of preventing arms and other military supplies from reaching Georgia by sea,” the source said.
Warships from Russia’s Black Sea fleet had clamped down a naval blockade on Georgia’s coast line, turning back “several civilian ships,” said Aleksander Lomaia, Georgia’s National Security Council Chief, in a statement.
Among freighters halted with warning shots was a Moldovan-flagged vessel carrying wheat to the port Poti, threatening Georgia’s food supplies, Lomaia claimed.
Georgian intelligence gave the elements of the Russian squadron as three amphibious assault vessels, two anti-submarine warfare vessels, a reconnaissance ship, two minesweepers, two missile boats, and a missile cruiser.
President Saakashvili forgets to tell he was the agressor in Western media
Human suffering and devastation after Saakashvili ordered attack on S OssatiaRussian analysis: Failure of West to intervene in Georgian military build-up
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."Actions have consequences. Given the U.S. Iraq-AF/Pakistan precedents, not much U.S/NATO can say or do… not even to stomp their feet.
How does Saakashvili survive this adventure over-reach? Russia sees him as a U.S. puppet and is crushing his American backed ambitions.
Shades of Iraq-Kuwait..Condi’s July 10th visit appears to have encouraged him interpreted that American power and resolve were behind his aspirations to re-assert control over the two provinces.
thereby, Russia reads and is doing a two-fer so that there can be no doubt.
The consequences of the Kosovo deed, done in haste…. and the consequences of treating Russia as a defeated enemy.
worth a read, this article written November 2007:-
Losing Russia – The Costs of Renewed Confrontation
cooperation on Iran went ice cold.
Did NATO really think that by baltantly ignoring international law in creating an independent Kosovo that there would be no repurcussion?
As we see the mouths of Condi and Bush mopve we can only wonder if they would support the reciprocal legal right of Serbia to reannex Kosovo by force including a mass attack on civilians.
The world got a lot messier the day Kosovo got independence expect more of this.
Not to mention Georgia is going to be taught a bloody lesson in no uncertain terms and a strong message will resonate in other places.
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Jerome has an excellent diary up and he knows the Ukraine, Caucasus, Caspian regions as well as the BTC pipeline. The agressor this time is Saakashvili who acts more like a dictator than a democrat. The provinces South Ossatia and Abzkazia have no Georgian forces within. There was a truce with Russian peacekeepers in S Ossatia, an ethnic independent region with close cultural ties to their Russian counterpart North Ossatia. It’s a very mountainous area with small population. They have known wars with Georgia for the last 100 years. With no provocation and well planned, Georgia bombarded the capital city Tskhinvali. Within days it lies in ruins and nearly 2000 civilian deaths. The Russian peacekeepers were either killed or wounded. Georgia will be punished by the Russian bear and pay a heavy price for the demolitions. Russian news media calls it continuously a “GENOCIDE” and wants the responsible politicians brought to justice. Russia will respect the Georgian territory, except for the two break-away provinces. It’s clear the S Ossatian people want to be reunited to Russia and Abkazia wants its independence .. remember Kosovo?
There is no western news media in South Ossatia, so the view you link is western propaganda (Georgia and US). Before the fighting was underway, Russia made an appeal to the SC of the UN to no avail, as the US would not be interested until Georgian troops had overrun S Ossatia within 48 hours. Poor judgement as usual from Bush & Co and another major defeat for the US, EU and NATO. Russia has been provoked and will benefit immensely from this victory.
See my two diaries at BooMan (it’s also the more accurate title for your diary)
≈ Cross-posted from BooMan’s diary — The Invasion of Georgia ≈
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence.".
VLADIKAVKAZ, Russia — Refugees from South Ossetia described being shelled and shot at and forced to run for their lives — leaving homes, family members and most of what they had behind. They talked of hiding in the woods, being mocked by Georgian soldiers and passing the dead on the roadside.
Marina Dudayeva, a woman in her early 20s, fled from Tskhinvali wearing only her bed clothes and a pair of plastic slippers. On Sunday she found herself at a leafy, run-down summer camp near Alagir in the Russian region of North Ossetia, just across the border from South Ossetia.
The residents of both regions are ethnic Ossetians, and have close family and cultural ties.
MANY REFUGEES STILL IN SHOCK
“The Georgians burned all of our homes,” said one elderly woman, as she sat on a bench under a tree with three other white-haired survivors. She seemed confused by the conflict. “The Georgians say it is their land,” she said. “Where is our land, then? We don’t know.”
Hundreds of other refugees gathered at a central square in Vladikavkaz, the North Ossetian capital, waiting to go to be sent to Anapa, a resort city on the Black Sea.
Zema Kulumbegova, a 43-year-old part-time English teacher, said when the shooting started last week, she, her husband and two children took shelter in the wine cellar of their two-story home in Tskhinvali.
At first, the skirmishes lasted a few hours and the Kulumbegov family would venture out. But by early Friday morning, the fighting became intense. Kulumbegova said a rocket hit their neighbor’s house and started a fire. “It’s amazing that we weren’t all killed,” she said.
Her husband, a teacher and craftsman, refused to leave. So did her 90-year-old father, who said he wanted to spend the last days of his life at home.
So she gathered her three girls — Ina, 14, Lina, 12, and Marina, 11 — and called a relative to pick them up in his car. They spent the day in a nearby village, watching the fighting grow closer. Finally, she said, Georgian tanks started firing into nearby houses.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence.".
The new energy deal Russia signed with the energy-rich Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan casts a shadow on the European and American strategies of energy diversification. The deal that was signed in Turkmenistan’s Caspian Sea port Turkmenbashi allows Russia to block Western countries from having direct access to Turkmen gas, ensuring Moscow’s virtual monopoly on transportation routes from the Caspian. The deal is a severe blow to the Western trans-Caspian pipelines projects.
What consequences for the trans-Caspian pipelines?
Besides securing gas exports to remedy possible domestic gas shortages, the deal is a significant step in Moscow’s geopolitical objectives of jeopardizing European and US energy diversification policies. The European Union (EU) and the United States have supported several pipeline projects to gain a direct access to Caspian energy resources, using Georgia and Azerbaijan as transit countries.
Russia’s new energy deals in Central Asia are also a severe blow to the Nabucco pipeline which involves several EU companies. The planned Nabucco pipeline will transport Caspian gas to Europe through Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and Austria. Like the BTC pipeline, the Nabucco project also foresees eastward expansion to Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."