I’m somewhat encouraged to see an element of realism in the foreign policy Establishment regarding the situation in Georgia. It appears that people understand that we don’t have any good cards in our hand. In fact, we’ve overplayed our hand and had our bluff called. In such a situation, as painful as it may be, the only correct thing to do is to fold. If we don’t fold…if we double down on our bluff, the result might look like this:
Putin criticized the United States for viewing Georgia as the victim instead of the aggressor, and for airlifting Georgian troops back home from Iraq on Sunday.
“Of course, Saddam Hussein ought to have been hanged for destroying several Shiite villages,” Putin said in Moscow. “And the incumbent Georgian leaders who razed ten Ossetian villages at once, who ran elderly people and children with tanks, who burned civilian alive in their sheds — these leaders must be taken under protection.”
That is a naked threat to invade all of Georgia, hunt down President Mikhail Saakashvili and his top cronies, and to hang them until dead. If you want to talk about throwing down the gauntlet…it has been thrown.
Putin, shown on state television speaking to officials, said the West had manipulated the truth about the war to present the Georgians as the victims rather than the aggressors.
Washington was hampering Moscow’s efforts to find a way out of the conflict, he said.
“It is a shame that some of our partners are not helping us but, essentially, are hindering us,” Putin said.
“The very scale of this cynicism is astonishing — the attempt to turn white into black, black into white and to adeptly portray victims of aggression as aggressors and place the responsibility for the consequences of the aggression on the victims.”
American Democrats are very familiar with the ‘black is white’ gambit that our foreign policy Establishment has been running on people. Although, contra Putin, I don’t see any white in this scenario at all. What I see is bunch of people that are very cavalier with other people’s lives. It’s the same old story we’ve seen repeated since at least World War One. Misguided feelings of pride, stubborn insistence on the importance of prestige, and the battle for control of natural resources leads an international elite to act with all the moral delicacy of monkeys and to put millions of people’s lives at risk.
So it goes.
However, the West can still save a little face in this situation, and it can take actions to buck up the Ukraine so that it does not suffer a similar fate. But if the wrong steps are taken, Russia could inflict a massive humiliation. Hanging Saakashvili like Saddam, like Mussolini…that would be a terrible blow.
It’s hard to believe just how monumental the failure of the Bush administration has become, and just how thoroughly the son has destroyed the positive legacy of his father.
Saakashvili may end up getting hanged, but not by the Russians. The AsiaTimes seems to think Saakashvili’s misadventure may have in part been driven by bad numbers at home. You can only take so much graft, spend so much of the budget on weaponry, until the people begin to suffer and notice (well, apparently except in America). His bad numbers will get worse after this colossal screw-up.
I’m still waiting to hear more about the “American bodies” that the Russians said they recovered. There must be some kind of identification. The U.S. propaganda may be seriously undercut if CIA “trainers” can be connected to the invasion of South Ossetia. Then again, I have heard the story in the last 12 hours, so maybe it was the fog of war.
Boo it has to be after midnight on the east coast – this is the second day in the row I wake up to see you with thought that Russia + invade are two words linked together.
Russia isn’t going to invade or “hunt down” anyone, not Saakashvili and not anyone else. Putin and Medvedev continue to show INCREDIBLE restraint in this situation.
Have you seen Tshkinvali the images out of there? Have you seen the TENS of thousands of refugees coming out of there? Have you heard the stories?
Nobody is going to remove Georgia as a sovereign entity off the map, at least nobody from Russia. People outside of Washington have a LONG view of things and they’re going to “hang” Saakashvili the most deliciously ironic way: with the European Court of Human Rights. That shitbag fucker slipped his chain and went nuts and believe me, it’ll be a few years but he WILL pay.
The west has been jamming the OSCE down Russia’s throats for decades and it’s going to be some delicious irony to neuter it by getting a genocide charge to stick on Saakashvili.
You want a REALISTIC prediction? Here you go:
The real key to watch here is all the weak allies of the USA, especially Azerbaijan and certain factions in Ukraine. I expect a huge sea change in Baku’s stance. Just watch the news out of what Russia hints or promises them about Nagorno-Karabakh.
The neocons just really fucked up because they threw their last pair of chips in and lost on any hope of continuing influence anywhere in the former Soviet Union after ALREADY pissing off the entire Middle East.
Pax
Those are mostly good predictions but I don’t see the West doing a 180 on Saakashvili. I also see no evidence that Russia is about to back down and let Saakashvili stay in power. As a negotiating stance, this is about as strong as it gets.
I think the Russians understand that directly deposing Saakashvili would be counterproductive to their own purposes.
You really must get over your view of Russians as some kind of brutes. (I have no idea where that comes from. Are you a fan of Richard Pipes?) If you look at Russian classical music and literature, you will find that it is on a level comparable to that of the major European countries. In classical music especially, neither Britain (after Purcell) nor the United States has produced anything that can compare. Thus, in many respects, Russia has more in common with Europe than the United States does.
Before America became the hegemon, “the West” meant, basically, Europe. Thus, Russia had one foot in the West, although, as we know, the efforts begun by Peter the Great to “westernize” Russia ultimately suffered a rather unfortunate setback. But now that we are past that, I don’t see why must indefinitely see something called “the West” ineluctably opposed to Russia.
Wow. I thought an appeal to classical music as a sign of civilization kind of died with the Nazis. Who knew?
Now you’re comparing Russians to the Nazis. Nice.
You appear either reluctant or unable to explain your Russophobia.
No, I’m not comparing Russians to Nazis, but Beethoven was a German and it didn’t mean a thing for the level of civilization of the German nation. You made that argument, not me.
Of course it meant something for the level of civilization of the German “nation”! People wondered: how could the Germans, from the land of Schiller, Goethe, and Beethoven, do such a thing?
But I have to hit the road, and there is no point continuing this conversation anyway, because I remember now from an exchange we had a year ago probably, that you do not find distinctions between good and mediocre art compelling. Thus, cultural achievement has little significance for you.
But that is very American. Europeans do not think like that. And that is one reason why the “West” in your sense is a spurious construct. “The West” for you means, essentially, NATO. It used to mean European civilization.
good and mediocre art? I have no idea what you’re talking about.
You just tried to convince me that the Russians are not brutes (your term) because they have symphonic talent. All I did was apply the same logic to the Nazis. How can you call the Germans brutes? Sure they are operating death camps and throwing people in ovens but they excel at classical music!!
It’s your argument, not mine. It doesn’t follow.
The “West” meaning USA, yes I doubt they will abandon (at least with words) their man Saakashvili.
We’ll see what happens in the next couple of months. My guess is Levan Gachechiladze will be brought in through internal maneuverings and Saakashvili will pull some kind of Shevardnadze move, where he will resign or else parliament will do some kind of move to seriously shift powers away from the president and towards the prime minister.
In essence, one way or another, either Gachechiladze will outright replace Saakashvili or else a lot of power will shift to Leno Gurgenidze (even if in some kind of “caretaker” role) until they can get Saakashvili out of there for good.
The man to watch however is Arkady “Badri” Patarkatsishvili. He will be like the weathervane in this whole thing, to see which way the wind is blowing. I seriously doubt he will get some kind of important role in the government or anything but he’s a loudmouth and knows what’s going on.
Long story short, if Gachechiladze gets most of the power (whether as president per se, or something else) I see a future where Georgia is mostly neutral, still a little pro-USA/west but mostly on good if shakily neutral terms with Russia.
The man out for blood for Saakashvili though is Irakli Okruashvili and if anyone is going to pull anything close to a coup or axing Saakashvili’s cronies it is him. So we’ll see which way the cronies in Tblisi are leaning whether they give Okruashvili some forgiveness and acceptance or whether they stick to Gachechiladze or perhaps even Bakdradze.
Georgian politics is never going again to be overtly pro-USA in the near future and it sure as hell is not going to be pro-Russia either. There’s going to be a hell of a lot of infighting going on amongst the bigwigs over who is going to take the fall for this suicidal venture against Russia this summer.
BUT I can promise you this much – Russia is neither going to invade, conquer nor hold Georgian territory. Nor will Russia physically depose Saakashvili in any sort of “USA in Iraq” style way. Saakashvili has played out enough rope all on his own and they’re gonna let him hang HIMSELF on it.
The key development Moscow-wise will be to see if they keep up their commitment to move out of the Akhalkalaki military base. Tblisi really shot themselves in the foot with that one because it was a major victory to get Russia to do that and now I bet they drag their foot for another year or so AT LEAST. No way in hell do the Armenians near Akhalkalaki want Russia disappearing from the neighborhood, not with those genocidal thugs in Tblisi still running around with hands on the trigger.
And while Bagapshe is under firm Moscow control (Abkhazia) I bet the next president of Ossetia is going to be a Bagapshe clone, i.e. a hard-liner pro-Russian guy frothing at the leash to be annexed by Russia, etc.
What a miserable situation. I’m curious when the dust settles when we’ll find out who the “April Glaspie” is this time around who greenlighted this clusterfuck on the Cheney side of things.
Pax
Oops, I forgot Patarkatsishvili is dead. My bad hehe 😉
Pax
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The final phase of the base closure has already started: On April 13th, 2007, the last of the equipment left Akhalkalaki to be transferred to the base in Gyumri in Armenia. On the 19th, the equipment left Georgian territory.
The days of the remaining 3000 servicemen, Russians and local Armenians are numbered. They are waiting for the official closing; meanwhile, the base remains half empty.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
Last I heard (and I admit I could be way off on this), they were supposed to lock the door and walk off around September of THIS year.
Sometimes I wish I had time to do full-time blogging again because I’d love to dig through the Armenian papers and see what’s being said down there.
You know one of the issues that isn’t being mentioned here but pops into my mind is what this effect this whole thing is gonna have on the whole CFE treaty. Thats why they were moving out of Akhalkalaki in the first place.
Anyway, something to think on.
Pax
Ok so I couldn’t resist. I found this hilarious editorial in Armenian paper ARAVOT where the guy says “it takes no special knowledge” to know that:
Hehe too funny because yeah no shit!
By the way there seems to be some little minor kerfluffle as apparently a couple of those Russian bombers might’ve come from a base in Armenia proper.
Interesting side note, there’s some Azeri politicians pushing to side with Georgia on this (politically) as they’re saying Russia will never help ’em out with Nagorno-Karabakh. Good stuff.
Pax
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Russia is denying foreign arms inspections as part of its decision last year to stop abiding by a treaty limiting conventional weapons in Europe. Claiming the current situation “cannot last indefinitely,” the United States and its NATO allies are seeking to induce Russia to reverse its suspension with a proposal to resolve long-standing disputes related to the treaty.
Accusing Western countries of acting in bad faith under the 1990 Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty, Moscow Dec. 12 announced that it would freeze implementation of the pact. The treaty, which limits the tanks, armored combat vehicles, heavy artillery, attack helicopters, and combat aircraft that its 30 states-parties may station between the Atlantic Ocean and the Ural Mountains, has no suspension provision.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
The West won’t have to do a 180. The Georgian opposition will. Saakashvili, his folly aside, is one corrupt motherfucker. He won’t survive.
NATO was initially set up to intimidate the USSR which responded by setting up the Warsaw Pact as a counter. When the USSR broke up there was never any need for NATO to continue.
Now once again it is used to intimidate Russia, and it has expanded. What is the justification for this aggressive highly militarised organization to continue and to act outsode of international organizations such as the EU and UN? Oh apart from it makes big profits for some arms companies that win supply contracts for the fairly standardized equipment and the very existancer of such an aggressive organization makes a certain level of arms race almost a fate accompli which in turn makes more money for…….
Look who lost us the Cold War!!
What’s so special about the Ukraine? Russia has legitimate claims on some of its territory. The Ukraine seceded illegally from the Soviet Union; if the secession had been done properly, borders would have been renegotiated.
Russia shows no indication of doing anything about that, although things might get touchy when its lease runs out on its base in Sevastopol. I think both the Ukraine and the West should rethink the Ukraine’s entry into NATO, however. The US promised Russia that would never happen.
By the way, Ukrainians hate it when the Ukraine is referred to as “the Ukraine”: they hate the use of the definite article. I use it because I speak Russian, and so know that “Ukraina” (the Russian form) means periphery; in English, if you refer to a particular periphery, you use the definite article.
During the Soviet period, Russian officials slyly suggested to English-language journalists that the definite article should be used with Ukraine, to produce the subliminal impression that the Ukraine is a region, not a country.
Russians can be funny when it comes to nationalities. (Political correctness is, sad to say, still completely alien to them, even to highly educated ones.) For example, the Russian word for German is “Nemets”, which means, literally, “a dumb one”, i.e., someone who is unable to speak.
For obvious reasons I would not bring Ukraine into NATO. But we can take actions to make it clear that can’t be so easily rolled over.
And by ‘we’, I mean The West. Ukraine wants to be part of the West and they have that right. If we want to really get rolled and have to start worrying about the Eastern Bloc we can start by playing dead in Ukraine.
See? No ‘the’.
Someone needs to write a study piece on the West’s rollback policy implementation. It grew out of a post-war rejiggering of Petain’s “cordon sanitaire.” This includes all those CIA Nazi importation programs, the whole ABBN/WACL crew, and the reinjection of fascists and children of fascists, trained and financed to be “leaders,” into the ring of countries around Russia. Perhaps some of Saakashvili’s State Dept. endowment should have been spent at Atlantic City. He apparently didn’t learn about odds.
everything that ther west has used to justify Kosovo it expansionist polices is now used by Putin. Th earguement sand logic he is using may not be valid but then again they were equally never valid when used by the west to justify Kosovo, Iraq and the Lebanese adventure of Israel.
The question is will the patheticwestern media that turns a blind eye to almost daily bombings and shellings of civilians by our forces continue to report the Russian counterattack on Georgia as like a unique slaughter of civilians that is not seen anywhere else in the world today. The other question is and Putin makes this well, is it OK to be a military aggressor, war criminal and ethnic cleanser because you are democratically elected and supported by the west? The truth is by the standard the west has set Saakashvili should be hauled before the international war crimes court. If the west refuses to go along with this call as they expect others to when naming their own enemies as war criminals then the west will publically identify its stance as purely hypocritical and with no ethical basis (as some of us are already aware). The West is at least as morally reprehensible as Russia in its dealing with what it sees as its sphere of influence.
Now maybe I will be surprised and proved wrong when Bush and his puppies demand Saakashvili be immediately arrested and flown to the Hague.
As to Ukraine and any of the other former Soviet areas and countries on the borders, the strategic direction should be as Finland has been of “Don’t even think about choosing sides”. Any reasonable excuse will result in Russia doing its best to secure its own safety. Expanding NATO and setting up ABM’s are the most insane and escalation of hostilities. Poking a bear with sticks is just not smart. Democracy or not democracy is not really the issue, and is a convenient American myth that justifies the right wing agenda.
What are the Americans thinking? It is pure folly to expect Georgia and Ukraine to become full fledged members of NATO, an organization created to stop an empire that no longer exists. Russia is naturally upset with nations on its borders that belong to a military organization that once was and easily could be again, hostile to its core interests.
Bush and his Neocon fellow idiots are playing with pure fire when they try to enlist former satellites of the Soviet Union to their capitalist cause. Sending military advisers to Georgia along with military equipment and backing the current nut case masquerading as president is utter madness. Russia, apparently, still remembers the twenty-seven million of its people killed in World War II. Putting anti-missile batteries in Poland and radar installations in the Czech republic is sure to piss them off. Opting out of the anti-missile disarmament treaty does not contribute to cordial relations; neither does spending such huge amounts on our military machine.
A McCain presidency may well be the prelude to a nuclear Armageddon. Perhaps, the US is just going collectively crazy. I think it’s time we all woke up while we still have time.
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is on the ground near the war zone speaking to its citizens who have just arrived as refugees in North Ossetia with terror and fear in their eyes, hearing the truthful stories of atrocities and war crimes committed by Georgian forces.
Bear in mind that S Ossatia had a population of 100,000 and nearly 40,000 have fled into Russia. It’s a mountainous, uninhabitable region where the elderly have memories of
NaziOssetian atrocities. Within two days 2,000 civilians fell victim of a cruel barrage of artillary and missiles. Subdueing an etnic group by military force is so 19th century. Where was Saakashvili educated? And his wife Sandra of the rose revolution?BBC Profile: Mikhail Saakashvili
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
He got an endowment from a U.S. State Dept. Freedom Support Act fund. ‘Nuff said.
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BooMan’s Tribune
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
I suspect that this is because people are looking for commentary other than what’s going on in the MSM. Not everyone is buying it.
in Georgia announced by Medvedev. I gues that exposes the lies of Saakashvili about the imminent fall of Tblisi. Now can we please haul his butt before the Hague war crimes tribunal
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Just put up my diary –
Breaking News: Medvedev Declares End of Hostilities
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
Including 90% of the “the West” – whatever that means.
Booman, I really fear that, like a lot of the US/European policy wonks. you’re falling gratefully into the Cold War narratives that you grew up with. We’ve all been primed to see the Russians as the villains of any piece they’re in.
Now, my inclination is to believe that they’re all villains, including most of our own dear leaders, so you shouldn’t take me as pro-Russian. It’s just I”m also anti-pretty much everyone else: the US (and France and … ) are just as evil as Russia on a good day.
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WASHINGTON – Scrambling to find ways to punish Russia for its invasion of pro-Western Georgia, the United States and its allies are considering expelling Moscow from an exclusive club of wealthy nations and canceling an upcoming joint NATO-Russia military exercise, Bush administration officials.
Bush calls for strong condemnation.
But with little leverage in the face of an emboldened Moscow, Washington and its friends have been forced to face the uncomfortable reality that their options are limited to mainly symbolic measures, such as boycotting Russian-hosted meetings and events, that may have little or no long-term impact on Russia’s behavior.
For now, the Bush administration decided to boycott a third meeting at NATO on Tuesday at which the alliance’s governing board, the North Atlantic Council, was preparing for a meeting with a Russian delegation that has been called at Moscow’s request.
Typifying the administration’s dilemma, a planned late-morning White House briefing by national security adviser Stephen Hadley was postponed “until further notice” due to ongoing developments in Georgia and in Moscow, where Sarkozy was meeting with Russian officials on behalf of the West.
Bush in Beijing and Russian PM Putin in Ossetia
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."