Promoted by Steven D
After watching Joe Biden score consistently high ratings from women on CNN’s undecided voter ticker during last night’s Vice Presidential debate, I was surprised to see an article pop up on MSNBC’s front page today with the teaser:
Women on Palin: She delivered
The Alaska governor boosted her standing with women, according to an early survey.
To borrow a phrase: Sadly, no.
A little close reading reveals that the article buries the true story. According to the Mitchell McKinney survey data cited in the article, the real headline should be:
Biden nearly triples Palin’s debate gains
Now beats the Alaska governor by 26 points in favorability, according to an early survey.
Or, more succinctly:
Palin loses
Here’s the key data from the article:
Overall, Biden’s favorability, already higher than Palin’s, rose by 26 percent, from 53 to 67 points. Palin’s, which started at 36 points and climbed to 41, rose by 14 percent.
The article confuses matters by using percentages that discourage direct comparison of the candidates’ gains. To use terms everyone else would use with poll or survey data, Biden’s favorability increased by 14 points while Palin’s increased by just five. Furthermore, Biden increased his favorability advantage over Palin from 17 points pre-debate to 26 points post-debate. Finally, even with her modest gains, Palin can’t seal the deal with voters — she’s stuck at 41 percent favorability.
So what about the article’s claims about Palin’s gains among women? Here’s the relevant quote:
With women, however, Palin’s approval climbed 11 percent, from 70 to 79 among Republicans, and by 20 percent, from 21 to 25 points among Democrats. That split mirrors obvious party divisions, Mitchell said, but it also shows that Palin held her own despite recent stumbles.
So Palin gained nine points with Republican women and a four points with Democratic women. But the article doesn’t provide the breakdowns of Biden’s ratings by female voters. So direct comparisons of the candidates’ gains among women are impossible.
But we know that Biden gained 14 points overall. Which indicates that unless Biden suffered a monumental gender gap, he most likely gained more among women voters than Palin did.
Which would undermine the entire premise of the article.
Hilariously, the MSNBC video accompanying the story further undermines the story by showing a focus group with seven undecided women, including five who voted for Bush in 2004. After viewing the debate, five of these women had a less favorable opinion of Palin. All seven of these women had a more favorable opinion of Biden.
