The Wash Post/ABC Poll has been one of the more McCain-friendly polls out there this election cycle, but they now show Obama opening up a double digit national lead.
Overall, Obama is leading 53 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, and for the first time in the general-election campaign, voters gave the Democrat a clear edge on tax policy and providing strong leadership.
What’s clear is that the Obama campaign is functioning on a very, very high level, and getting their message out there in a most effective way. Taking the lead on tax policy and strong leadership? Al Gore and John Kerry can only gasp in admiration.
…Obama’s pitch to the middle class on taxes is beginning to sink in; nearly as many said they think their taxes would go up under a McCain administration as under an Obama presidency, and more see their burdens easing with the Democrat in the White House.
Not only has McCain failed to convince voters that Obama would raise their taxes, he has failed to convince voters that he would cut them. That’s a spectacularly big failure, and may reflect Obama’s success in critiquing McCain’s Health Care proposal (which would tax health benefits for the first time).
Twenty-three percent of all adults — and 18 percent of political independents — gave the president good marks, putting him within a point of Harry S. Truman’s record low in a February 1952 Gallup poll. The low ratings continue to have a dampening effect on McCain: More than half of voters, 51 percent, said that McCain, if elected, would largely continue to lead the country in the direction Bush has, and those voters overwhelmingly prefer Obama.
This is more confirmation that David Broder’s ‘Pony Boy’ president is the worst in history. It’s also confirmation that Obama has succeeded in disseminating his ‘More of McSame’ message.
More than half of all voters, 53 percent, volunteered in an open-ended question that the economy and jobs constituted the most important issue in their choice for president.
Obama is winning “economy voters” by 62 percent to 33 percent, nearly a 2-to-1 ratio.
Obama is finding the timing of the economic downturn to be somewhat fortuitous, but he can take credit for projecting an aura of steady-calm, while John McCain was been nothing but erratic throughout the crisis.
With the airwaves in battleground states reaching saturation level and coverage of the campaign intensifying, 59 percent of voters said that McCain is mainly on the attack, a marked increase over the 48 percent who said the same in August. And 35 percent of respondents said McCain is addressing the issues, in stark contrast with the 68 percent who said Obama is doing so.
Obama has stayed on message. And he’s managed to keep up a positive/negative ratio high enough that his attacks leave no fingerprints. McCain has payed a price for his personal attacks. Obama has payed no price for strong rebukes, like his roll-out of the Keating 5 video.
Nor has there been evident progress for the GOP campaign to label Obama as an extreme liberal: Fifty-five percent of voters see the Democrat as “about right” ideologically, and although 37 percent see him as “too liberal,” that is about the same as it was in June. By contrast, the percentage seeing McCain as “too conservative” is up to 42 percent, higher than it was four months ago.
In a sure sign of realignment, McCain is paying a heavier price for being a conservative than Obama is paying for being a liberal. I haven’t always enjoyed Obama’s move to the middle, so I am very pleased to see that he has, at least, been successful in inoculating himself against the charge that he is ideologically out-of-touch. Not so for McCain, whose choice of Sarah Palin destroyed his maverick-image. Most impressively, McCain’s attacks have failed to move the polls a single point since June in the ‘too liberal’ category. That’s not just incompetence on McCain’s part. That’s great defense from the Obama camp.
One might wish for better or different policies, but I can’t see much room to criticize Obama for his campaign. It hasn’t been flawless, but it has been the best I have seen in my lifetime. The only campaign in its league was the 1984 Reagan re-election campaign.
I’m not really surprised. Early on in this process, I recognized that the Obama campaign was better than my best advice and that I should be humble and let them do their thing. With the exception of the FISA vote (which, in retrospect, looks like an unnecessary case of extreme caution) the Obama campaign has either done what I would have suggested or come up with something better than I could have ever imagined. It is to their credit that they neither listened to the advice of the partisans of the blogosphere, nor did they let any attack go unchallenged. This polling validates their strategy. John McCain has been cut down by a thousand small-axe strikes, while failing to score any staggering blows.
Combine all of this with the breathtaking grassroots ground game, and the only word for the Obama campaign is ‘magnificent’. Three weeks to go. Visit your field office.
Politifact.com has blown holes in the Ayers/Obama connection spouted by the McCain campaign.
Poltifact.com has given a long analysis of the ties the McCain campaign has made between William Ayers and Obama, the major one being that they ran a “radical education group” together.
They are referring to the Chicago Annenberg Challenge (founded by conservative multi-billionaire Walter Annenberg’s organization), where Obama served on the Board from 1995 until it’s dissolution in 2001 and where he was Chairman for 4 years.
William Ayers was in the group that petitioned Annenberg for the funds, but he “was never on the board of the Chicago Annenberg Challenge,” and he “never made a decision programatically or had a vote,” said the Foundation’s Executive Director, Ken Rolling.
The McCain Campaign has attacked Obama and his involvement with the Foundation and Ayers as radical and far-left oriented when it was hardly more than a fairly conservative educational program.
This from Politifact:
Perhaps this will come up in the next debate… but I doubt it. McCain doesn’t seem to face Obama in live confrontations with the falsehoods he stresses in the campaign.
Under The LobsterScope
Steady as he goes.
But the Grand Oil Party is working hard to stage a McCain comeback…working gas down to under $3.00 gallon.
Steve Schmidt tells NPR, “we are proud of our campaign, we’re behind six points but McCain has been written off four times before”
Whistling through the grave yard, past 1:00 AM.
Like crashing four airplanes, how many chances do you give someone before you realize the problem was not with the airplanes, but with the pilot?
I’ve long felt there was too little attention and analysis given to McCain’s unremarkable win from an abysmal field of GOP candidates. McCain’s fundamental problem with electability–and the thin support from his own party*–are long-standing. Post-mortems of this election should start with a review of how McCain came to be the GOP nominee.
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* Remember how disaffected many Republicans were with his candidacy? Strong rumors of Dobson, et al, creating a third party. Ann Coulter saying she’d rather vote in the GE for Hillary than McCain. Unsupportive comments from other right-wing media people.
I agree Booman that the campaign and the candidate have been almost flawless. Look at what is happening in North Dakota and Obama quietly pulled out some resources there too.
Barack Obama is shown with an edge against John McCain in a North Dakota presidential race that has narrowed to a statistical tie, according to a new Forum poll. — The survey shows Obama squeaking past McCain, 45 percent to 43 percent.
Just caught up with this Sullivan piece in The Sunday Times, UK.
Worthy of repost:
After November 4th, here in battleground NC, I’m going to miss seeing Obama’s smiling face during almost every local tv commercial break. McCain’s ads only run 2-3 times a night and he doesn’t look the viewer in the eye either.
Some days I find not one, not two, but THREE different Obama promos in my mailbox. I’ve been repeatedly assured, in print, that he won’t raise my taxes, will lower the cost of healthcare and will not take away my guns. I won’t miss the mailings but it’s interesting that I haven’t gotten even one mass mailing for McCain yet. Guess he can’t afford it.
Obama would have an even bigger lead now if he had listened to economists instead of Henry Paulson and voted against the bailout plan.
LOL. Right. And his polling shot up like a rocket at the precise moment he cast that vote. Jesus. Enjoy your wank…you’ve certainly have company.
Don’t underestimate our role in this. We do things the campaign can’t. Sarah Palin is an example.
LOL, wish we could take credit for advising McCain to pick her. Fred Barnes of the Weekly Standard nd Rush Limbaugh deserve the credit for first pushing her candidacy. America thanks them.
It’s such an unexpected pleasure to finally be consistently dumber than a Dem presidential campaign. Sometimes this campaign is almost like a work of art, or at least brilliant engineering.
The McCain campaign speaks to the reptile brain, instilling fear and loathing, and speaking enough semi-complicated gibberish to create a condition pf cognitivce dissonance to a point where voters give up trying to figure out what he’s saying and just vote for him based on pure emotion.
The Obama campaign speaks to the neocortex, that component of the modern human brain wherein is housed our critical thinking skills and the ability to analyze info and base our decisions more on facts and reason. Not always a winning strategy, but in this case it seems to be working effectively.
If Obama were a white guy he’d probably be ahead by 20+ points right now. As it is all the terroris/Muslim/’crazy big spending liberal’ lies propagated by the McCain nuts and the media are providing the perfect cover behind which millions of voters can conceal their racism.
I think the racism aspect figures more prominently in all this than a lot of us want to acknowledge.
I don’t think you can listen to Palin and not acknowledge the racism. That’s pretty much all she’s about these days. Everybody of every persuasion knows exactly what “not one of us” means.
Yes! I agree.
I do think, however, that the racism aspect is much deeper and much more pernicious than what the more obvious instances of it indicate. The fact that al this other ‘terrorist’/Islamic stuff creates a perfect mask that enables the latent racism in our society to act out is, in my opinion, a very big deal.
I should put this a bit more clearly. The ‘terrorist’ charges leveled against Obama allows our fellow citizen’s racism to masquerade as legitimate patriotic and security concerns.