Sarah Palin was selected to excite the Republican base, and it has worked to some degree. But, in the battle for an energized base, the McCain campaign has lost, and lost extremely badly. You can see it in the early voting numbers out of North Carolina:
Statewide, 214,000 voters braved hours-long lines to cast their ballots on the first two days of early voting. So far, the numbers have clearly favored Democrats. Some 62 percent of voters who have cast a ballot in early voting are registered with the party. Only 22 percent are registered Republicans. By comparison, about 46 percent of all registered voters in the state are declared Democrats, while 32 percent are with the GOP.
And in Georgia:
Statewide, almost 635,800 had voted by the end of Thursday, most of them in person, according to the Georgia Secretary of State’s Office. Almost 36 percent of those voting in advance by mail or in person are African-American.
The electorate of Georgia is only 29% black (up from 27% in 2004). I may do some county analysis of the early Georgia vote soon, but the pro-Democratic county of DeKalb (Atlanta) has already seen a turnout that represents 23% of the total votes cast in 2004. Republican-leaning counties in the Atlanta suburbs have seen much less early turnout (Cobb Co., 12.3%, Gwinnett Co., 14.2%). To get an idea of what this means, Dekalb county went for Kerry 73%-26%, while Cobb went to Bush 62%-37%, and Qwinnett went to Bush 66%-33%. Chatham Co. (Savannah) split the 2004 vote 50%-50%, but it has a large black population and will tilt Obama’s way this year. It has already seen turnout equivalent to 21% of the 2004 vote.
Pollsters have to guess about the demographic makeup of the electorate and weight their polls accordingly. Early voting is an indicator of enthusiasm, and it’s clear that in these two southern states, Obama has an enormous advantage. But, McCain’s voters may eventually show up, even if it is not until election day. When the counting is over, blacks will not make up 36% of the electorate in Georgia, and registered Democrats will not make up 62% of the North Carolina electorate. But that’s where things stand today. Obama has a huge lead in both states. More importantly, as his voters cast their votes he can cross them off the list and focus on mobilizing an ever-shrinking number of voters. McCain still has the bulk of his voters to drag to the polls.
Don’t be shocked if McCain doesn’t get it done.
