Booman’s Open Thread for Monday has a single line in its body.
Got any predictions?
The subtext of course being the smug, self-satisfied attitude that is epidemic on the leftiness blogs now.
Got any predictions? About how badly our man is going to beat their man? Wink wink nudge nudge?
Cute.
Wake the fuck up.
Yeah. I’ve got a prediction.
And you are not going to like it.
Read on for more.
You are not going to like it, just as you didn’t like it when I predicted (Wednesday Oct. 15) on the Post-Debate Thread that:
The “If you wanted to run against President Bush you should have run 4 years ago” line alone will bump McCain up 3 points in the polls.
And
Watch the real polls. Not the little make-news-now-and-snatch-a-little rating edge polls.
By Friday or Monday.
You didn’t like it much then and you’re gonna like it even less now, because I was right on the money.
I dunno about Monday but here it is late Sunday night.
Real Clear Politics…YOU know, the site that averages out 7 major polling organizations?…had it Obama 50.2, McCain 42 on Oct 14th.
October 19th? Obama 48.8, McCain 43.8
Can you add?
Do you want to?
I understand your recalcitrance. I’ll do it for you.
I pinned it.
Joe The Plumber, that snarky line and McCain’s general performance in that debate raised him from a -8.2 underdog to a -5 underdog. 3.2 points in 3 days.
Like I said. By Friday or Monday.
There are 15 days left before the election. Should McCain gain a point a day…which I do not think he will do…he would landslide Obama.
So here is my prediction.
It’s punch/counterpunch now.
The last couple of rounds.
McCain scores in the debate.
Colin Powell counters with an endorsement.
That’s the way it is going to be right to the last electoral bell.
Prediction?
A modified Fitzmas.
Obama wins, but no landslide.
The Bradley effect is real…the one where white people say that they will vote for a black candidate but in the booth just cannot get themselves to do so.
There is another effect that all ‘a you white liberal shmoon seem to be forgetting.
The “I HATE GODDAMNED NIGGERS!!!” effect.
You know about that one, too. You just don’t seem to want to look it full in the face. All over this country there are people who would no more answer a pollster than they would let their daughters date a black man. If you ain’t from their neck o’ the woods yer a stranger, and strangers ain’t’ t’be trusted nohow. I just spent a couple of days in Appalachia North…also known as working class Maine…and bet on it, these people are RIFE up there.
And…they are going to vote.
Now…Maine may not go down for McCain, if only because of the huge influx of retired Bostonians and New Yorkers plus a granite-like streak of sheer pig-headed righteousness that runs through the culture there, but I know damned well that these Snopeses are everywhere in our great land.
My prediction?
Popular vote?
Maybe Obama 52%, McCain 48%.
Maybe less. Doubtfully more.
Electoral vote? Jive as that system is? With the addition of all of the possible vote fraud shit?
It’s going to be close.
Closer than it should have been given the Ratpub records of the last 8 years, Palin’s demonic streak and the image below.
An image, I might mention, that ALONE would have swung the vote way towards Obama had he been hip enough to use it.
That 1/2 hour of TV time he has bought?
Remember the Yule Log TV?
<
It used to run all Christmas Day on some stations.
Just put up a 1/2 hour of that Bush/McCain “Who’s my daddy? You’re my daddy!!!” hug on national TV and then prepare for the landslide.
But NOOOOOoooooo…
Obama’s too…presidential for that kind of shit.
So it goes.
Obama in a slightly less than comfortable squeaker.
Unless of course Palin and/or McCain put their foot so far up their ass that even the Snopeses can see the error of their ways.
A distinct possibility, but less and less likely as the whole process begins to wind down.
Watch.
May you be born into interesting times.
Later…
AG
P.S. Go here to actually play the McCain vs. Obama Boxing game. It is SO out there!!! (Scroll to the bottom and hit “Play Now”.)
Only in America.
Have fun…
We’re about to go nuclear and all we can do is sit and play video games starring cartoon versions of the two clowns who are currently competing for the privilege of leading us down the radioactive garden path.
Only in America.
Deep.
With chicory.
AG
idredit did my work for me. One obvious problem with the RCP average is that they refuse to use the Research2000 poll for the presidential because it is paid for by Kos. But, they use all of Research2000’s polls for governor or senate or house, even though many of them are also paid for by Kos.
They use ARG polls selectively…when they favor the Republican.
Their rolling average sucks and is less accurate than Pollster.com or ElectoralVote.com or 538.com.
But, let me make another point. If Barack Obama wins 52% of the vote, he’ll have won bigger than Carter or Clinton did. And the overall number will be misleading. Look at the internals of today’s Research2000 poll.
What does that tell you?
It tells you that Obama is far ahead everywhere but the South, and since most competitive House seats are in the East, Midwest, and West, Obama has serious coattails.
FORGET about Real Clear Politics or any other set of prognosticators.
I actually fear a civil war within the next several years if Obama wins and takes any drastic steps whatsoever to open up the Amerikan system to some form of justice.
Look at the map included in the following comment that I made elsewhere. (Riots Break Out in 17 Cities. A future fiction account of what might happen if Obama is vote frauded as were Fat Al and Small K kerry.) :
One way or another…or any other set of “others”…this thing is far from over.
In fact…it’s just beginning.
Bet on it.
Watch.
AG
Talking shit about white power is one thing, but what is the issue that folks are going to fight and die for in the coming race war? They’ve all grown too fat and lazy to execute even the best laid plans. Relax. Safeguards are in place.
People will always talk shit against the other. It’s just how we work. It makes the lizard brain delighted to think we might not be bottom rung.
If the shit talking stops, THEN I’d worry because when the truth is completely hidden, it dies.
Have you seen the Palin/Third Wave video?
They may appear foolish, these people…but they are NOT fat and lazy. And they can be used.
As Christian Taliban.
Watch.
AG
There is such a long history in America of ready for death religious nutbags, armed to the teeth and aimin’ to destroy the Great Satan. Every last one of them has self-destructed because stupid is unsustainable. I’m not sure if you’ve noticed, but that pendulum has just started it’s swing back. It may take a while to get even close to sane again, but all in good time.
I agree that the noise will only increase as it dawns on them how far back they have set themselves by sending Palin out without properly preparing the way (witch doctor blessings aside). There may even be incidents and accidents, hints and allegations (and millionaires and billionaires and BAY-BAYH).
HOWEVER, when the long knives come out, it will be among their own, to cut out the cancer that must have brought about failure this time..
bet on it..
I’d drop two lbs of salt on the Real Clear Politics polling data. They skew GOP…and are proud of it… …in the tank on their methodology.
Don’t take my word for it.
In this election polls are meaningless. Today Gallup has Obama at 10% over McCain.
Imho, I’ll wait for the votes to be certified without the SC’s help.
Pollster.com probably has the best summarised graphical and tabular presentations of sophiticated statistical trends based on all polls (rather than the simplistic arithmetic averages of cherry picked polls for cherry picked periods as on Real Clear Politics.
As can be seen from the above, there is a distinct pro-McCain trend at the national level over the past week, but this has yet to impact on Obama’s 200 EV lead in the electoral college. Indeed only Ohio, of the toss-up states is looking any way dodgy for Obama at the moment, based on current trends,
I’m not arguing for complacency – see http://www.boomantribune.com/?op=displaystory;sid=2008/10/19/191438/78 – but neither is there a need to panic. Indeed, if any side is panicking at the moment, it looks like McCain.
only gets maybe 2/3rds of the equation. If that. Maybe only 1/7th. Read on.
I will repost what I stated above.
These people will not talk straight in front of out-of-towners of any sort. Not even about the weather if they can help it and certainly not about politics or race. But when you are NOT an out-of-towner…as are many of my relatives, who are in many ways almost moles in this milieu…then you can begin to get to see the real depth of the problem.
And I am here to tell y”all….what you are seeing is the 1/7th of the working class white cultural iceberg that sticks up out of the water.
Urban, suburban and rural.
Beware the other 6/7ths.
It’s in there.
Bet on it.
It is registered to vote but NOT to answer questions from nosy edumacated people.
Watch.
AG
In recent times there has more often been a “reverse Bradley effect” where Obama and other Black politicians have out-performed the polls. The reality is the racist vote is already counted in McCain’s numbers. There is no reason for a racist not to declare their intention of voting for McCain. Obviously the “Bradley effect” theory has never been tested in a Presidential election before – so we can’t be sure – but the original pollster who polled the Bradley campaign has always maintained there was no Bradley effect even in the 1980’s – the actual votes were within the margin of error – and unexpected results are often the result of bad polling methodology – not systematic hidden racial prejudice. Academic studies of all elections involving black politicians since them have found plenty of random variation, but no systematic bias against black politician in real elections as compared to the outcomes predicted by polls.
When you have polls out there showing Obama getting 84% of the black vote and at historical rates of turnout, you don’t have to worry about a Bradley Effect.
John Kerry got 93% of the black vote, and at much lower turnout levels that we should expect this year.
Obama can expect to top 95%, and to have record turnout. Some polls reflect this, but most do not.
As you point out, there is no little incentive for a racist to say he will vote for Obama when he or she will not. They are much more likely to feign undecidedness.
And, most experts expect the undecided vote to break for McCain at a 70-30 rate. That means that Arthur is probably right that Obama cannot expect to do much better than 52% of the national vote. An even split of undecideds (with no third-party voters) would push Obama closer to 55%. But that will only happen if there is a large differential in turnout (McCain supporters staying home because the cause is lost, and Obama’s groundteam churning out every last vote).
It could happen, but when you include the third party vote, I expect to see something like this:
OBAMA: 52%
McCAIN: 44%
3rd PARTY: 4%
Pollster.com (currently off-line) have just done a detailed analysis of late deciders in the Ford election – and concluded they marginally favoured Ford – counter to your expectation above.
see http://www.pollster.com/blogs/race_and_late_deciders_lessons.php
However, there are a LOT of reasons for many of them to not answer the question.
Not answering the phone or doorbell, chasing people away from their door with guns and dogs, being almost totally incommunicado vis-a-vis the outside world (How do you think that they managed to remain true to their racist roots in the first place?), not even appearing on any on lists that provide potential pollees, etc.
Which is my point.
It has often been noted that it is extremely difficult to accurately poll ghettos, right?
Well…racism IS a ghetto.
And not just a ghetto of the mind, either.
Walk into any small town or relatively isolated urban/suburban neighborhood in America…isolated by ethnicity and/or by class…wearing the wrong uniform or speaking the wrong dialect and you may as well be some California valley girl/valley boy walking into a Crips neighborhood in East St. Louis.
You are marked.
And nothing straight will come your way.
But…they vote, these parts of the culture.
ESPECIALLY when threatened.
And if you do not think that the elegant, intellectually gifted and proud of it, mixed race, successful and wealthy Barack Obama and his equally blessed wife (Who is herself physically black like they see in the movies as well. YOU know…like dark? None ‘a that “mixed race” shit goin’ on in HER genetic makeup. Not very damned much, anyway.) do not threaten the whole construct of racial superiority upon which they have built their lives?
If you do not think that, then you have got to get out more.
They’re gonna get out.
These racist motherfuckers.
They’re gonna get out to vote, and they’re bringing Granny and crazy ol’ Uncle jack with ’em.
Bet on it.
AG
Close enough to steal, in other words.
I’m not convinced Obama will have won until McSame drops the last lawsuit or it’s dismissed for him.
Close enough to steal.
Precisely.
AG
Too expensive these days.
Inflation and all that.
Now they just take a digital picture of one of those fake, gas-fired logs and email it to everybody in the country.
Soon, even the gas will be too expensive.
Luckily…they’ll be able to recycle the digital image.
So it goes.
Later…
AG