Booman’s Open Thread for Monday has a single line in its body.
Got any predictions?
The subtext of course being the smug, self-satisfied attitude that is epidemic on the leftiness blogs now.
Got any predictions? About how badly our man is going to beat their man? Wink wink nudge nudge?
Cute.
Wake the fuck up.
Yeah. I’ve got a prediction.
And you are not going to like it.
Read on for more.
You are not going to like it, just as you didn’t like it when I predicted (Wednesday Oct. 15) on the Post-Debate Thread that:
The “If you wanted to run against President Bush you should have run 4 years ago” line alone will bump McCain up 3 points in the polls.
And
Watch the real polls. Not the little make-news-now-and-snatch-a-little rating edge polls.
By Friday or Monday.
You didn’t like it much then and you’re gonna like it even less now, because I was right on the money.
I dunno about Monday but here it is late Sunday night.
Real Clear Politics…YOU know, the site that averages out 7 major polling organizations?…had it Obama 50.2, McCain 42 on Oct 14th.
October 19th? Obama 48.8, McCain 43.8
Can you add?
Do you want to?
I understand your recalcitrance. I’ll do it for you.
I pinned it.
Joe The Plumber, that snarky line and McCain’s general performance in that debate raised him from a -8.2 underdog to a -5 underdog. 3.2 points in 3 days.
Like I said. By Friday or Monday.
There are 15 days left before the election. Should McCain gain a point a day…which I do not think he will do…he would landslide Obama.
So here is my prediction.
It’s punch/counterpunch now.
The last couple of rounds.
McCain scores in the debate.
Colin Powell counters with an endorsement.
That’s the way it is going to be right to the last electoral bell.
Prediction?
A modified Fitzmas.
Obama wins, but no landslide.
The Bradley effect is real…the one where white people say that they will vote for a black candidate but in the booth just cannot get themselves to do so.
There is another effect that all ‘a you white liberal shmoon seem to be forgetting.
The “I HATE GODDAMNED NIGGERS!!!” effect.
You know about that one, too. You just don’t seem to want to look it full in the face. All over this country there are people who would no more answer a pollster than they would let their daughters date a black man. If you ain’t from their neck o’ the woods yer a stranger, and strangers ain’t’ t’be trusted nohow. I just spent a couple of days in Appalachia North…also known as working class Maine…and bet on it, these people are RIFE up there.
And…they are going to vote.
Now…Maine may not go down for McCain, if only because of the huge influx of retired Bostonians and New Yorkers plus a granite-like streak of sheer pig-headed righteousness that runs through the culture there, but I know damned well that these Snopeses are everywhere in our great land.
My prediction?
Popular vote?
Maybe Obama 52%, McCain 48%.
Maybe less. Doubtfully more.
Electoral vote? Jive as that system is? With the addition of all of the possible vote fraud shit?
It’s going to be close.
Closer than it should have been given the Ratpub records of the last 8 years, Palin’s demonic streak and the image below.
An image, I might mention, that ALONE would have swung the vote way towards Obama had he been hip enough to use it.
That 1/2 hour of TV time he has bought?
Remember the Yule Log TV?
<
It used to run all Christmas Day on some stations.
Just put up a 1/2 hour of that Bush/McCain “Who’s my daddy? You’re my daddy!!!” hug on national TV and then prepare for the landslide.
But NOOOOOoooooo…
Obama’s too…presidential for that kind of shit.
So it goes.
Obama in a slightly less than comfortable squeaker.
Unless of course Palin and/or McCain put their foot so far up their ass that even the Snopeses can see the error of their ways.
A distinct possibility, but less and less likely as the whole process begins to wind down.
Watch.
May you be born into interesting times.
Later…
AG
P.S. Go here to actually play the McCain vs. Obama Boxing game. It is SO out there!!! (Scroll to the bottom and hit “Play Now”.)
Only in America.
Have fun…
We’re about to go nuclear and all we can do is sit and play video games starring cartoon versions of the two clowns who are currently competing for the privilege of leading us down the radioactive garden path.
Only in America.
Deep.
