If next Tuesday’s elections go as the polls indicate that they will go, the Democrats will control Washington completely, and may even have the ability to overcome Senate filibusters on issues where they remain united. But that will become the key question…can the Democrats remain united? And the answer is ‘no’. On a lot of key legislation we will find that parochial concerns are more important than party affiliation. Nowhere will this be more true than on Energy policy.
The Democrats will have little trouble passing some important legislation and making key policy changes. Some things we will see include:
A stimulus package that includes funding for state governments, extended unemployment insurance, and more food stamps.
Federal funding for Stem Cell research.
Passage of the Employee Free Choice Act, which will promote union membership.
Expansion of the SCHIP medical program for children.
A cut in subsidies to private health insurance plans.
A ‘tax on the carried interest that hedge funds and other financial firms make in compensation and an effort to close several tax haven loopholes.’
The closing of Guantánamo Bay’s internment camp.
These things will either pass easily or be instituted by executive order. But the biggest issues are going to be health care and energy issues. The Democrats will have the raw numbers to pass legislation, but only if they remain united. And they won’t remain united on big ticket issues that alarm budget hawks or that threaten local business interests (e.g., anti-coal legislation, reimposing a ban on off-shore drilling, etc.)
As for the Republicans, those that remain in Congress will slowly learn to adapt their behavior. To have any legislative impact at all, they will have to help Democrats pass bills on which they are divided. Washington won’t only look completely different, it will work in a completely different manner.
