The state of the Senate races is very fluid. I’ll begin by listing the seats I have 100% confidence that the Democrats will win.
VIRGINIA: Fmr. Gov. Mark Warner defeats Fmr. Gov. Jim Gilmore
NEW MEXICO: Rep. Tom Udall defeats Rep. Steve Pearce
COLORADO: Rep. Mark Udall defeats Fmr. Rep. Bob Schaffer
I have about 90% confidence that the Democrats will win these seats:
ALASKA: Mayor Mark Begich defeats Sen. Ted Stevens
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Fmr. Gov. Jeanne Shaheen defeats Sen. John Sununu
OREGON: State Speaker Jeff Merkley defeats Sen. Gordon Smith.
So, I predict with at least 90% confidence that the Democrats will pick up 6 senate seats. I have better than 50% confidence that:
NORTH CAROLINA: State Sen. Kay Hagan defeats Sen. Liddy Dole.
The Minnesota race is impossible to predict due to the presence of a very strong third-party candidate. Al Franken is narrowly ahead in some polls and narrowly behind in some polls. I consider the race a true tossup. I have better than 50% confidence that the Dems will pick up seven senate seats, and I have 50% confidence that they will pick up eight seats. The next three races are competitive:
GEORGIA: Jim Martin vs. Sen. Saxby Chambliss
Analysis: Due to the Democrats’ huge advantage in early voting, this race is in the toss-up category, even though Chambliss has enjoyed a consistent, if narrow, lead in the polls. A Libertarian candidate that is polling in low single digits makes it hard for either Chambliss or Martin to crack 50% of the vote. According to state law, an election that does not result in any one candidate reaching 50% will result in an early December run-off election. That appears to be the most likely outcome. Predicting who would win such a run-off is nearly impossible. I give Martin about a 40% chance of being the next senator from Georgia.
KENTUCKY: Bruce Lunsford vs. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell
Analysis: McConnell has maintained a narrow lead in the polls in a state where McCain is expected to do very well. Lunsford cannot be counted out, but he cannot be considered as a favorite, either. I give him about a 25% chance of winning the seat.
MISSISSIPPI: Fmr. Gov. Ronnie Musgrove vs. Sen. Roger Wicker.
Analysis: Musgrove has been declining in the polls at a gradual rate throughout the last month of the campaign. It is these negative trendlines that lead to my pessimistic assessment of this race. There is no doubt that black turnout in Mississippi will be at all-time high levels, so the Democrat cannot be counted out. I give Musgrove about a 25% chance of winning the seat.
I have 40% confidence that the Dems will pick up 9 seats, and 25% confidence that they will pick up 11 seats.
We can break the rest of the senate races into three categories. The first category is for the races that still could surprise.
LOUISIANA: Mary Landrieu vs. John Kennedy
Analysis: All along, this has been the Republicans only realistic chance of unseating a Democratic incumbent. I don’t see anything to worry about, though, based on the polling.
TEXAS: Rick Noriega vs. John Cornyn
Analysis: If there is one race that could really slip by the radar, this is the one. Noriega should be doing better but he just hasn’t had the money he needed to compete in such an expensive state. Cornyn is not popular and Obama supporters will be much more enthusiastic about voting than McCain supporters. The Latino turnout could surprise the pollsters.
MAINE: Rep. Tom Allen vs. Sen. Susan Collins
Analysis: Obama leads in the most recent polls out of Maine by between thirteen and twenty percent. Collins is polling comfortably ahead, but she will need a lot of split tickets in order to get reelected.
There are three other races that seem uncompetitive (and probably are) but that could conceivably shock the world.
SOUTH CAROLINA: Bob Conley vs. Lindsey Graham
Analysis: Bob Conley is a Ron Paul-Republican that somehow won the Democratic nomination. He has no support from the Democratic Party and he has very little money. But he’s running to Graham’s right on immigration and to his left on foreign policy. In order to win, he’d have to get a very high percentage of the Democratic vote (which I see as unlikely), but keep an eye on this race because conservatives are not happy with Lindsey Graham and a lot of them will be voting for Conley.
NEBRASKA: Scott Kleeb vs. Fmr. Gov. Mike Johanns
Analysis: Kleeb has three strengths. He hails from Nebraska’s Third District, which is perhaps the most conservative district in the country. He may do better there than a typical Democrat. Obama is competing heavily in Nebraska’s Second District. And Kleeb is a fantastic and attractive candidate. I don’t have any recent polling, but I can’t rule out a Kleeb stunner.
IDAHO: Larry LaRocco vs. Jim Risch
Analysis: This is a five-way race with four conservative candidates. Risch is polling well below fifty-percent and isn’t all that popular in Republican circles. He’s certainly the heavy favorite, but LaRocco still has a prayer of winning.
The final category of races are simply lost causes. Obama is way too weak in Oklahoma to give state Sen. Andrew Rice a real shot of upsetting Jim Inhofe. Jim Slattery has shown no life in his Kansas contest against Pat Roberts. And our candidates are simply too weak to compete in Tennessee, Mississippi-A, Wyoming-A, Wyoming-B, or Alabama.
To recap, I have:
100% confidence in a pickup of 3 seats
90% confidence in a pickup of 6 seats
50+% confidence in a pickup of 7 seats
50% confidence in a pickup of 8 seats
40% confidence in a pickup of 9 seats
25% confidence in a pickup of 11 seats
There is a small possibility of upsets in Louisiana, Texas, or Maine.
True shockers are still possible in South Carolina, Nebraska, and Idaho.
The rest of the races are set in stone.
