There are countless articles being written and conversations going on that address the GOP’s fall from power and the likely roads back. The Republican Party is particularly weak in the Northeast which is, obviously, a major population center. The road back in the Northeast is fairly obvious.
The GOP’s greatest advantage is the two-party system that almost guarantees that any Democratic loss is a Republican gain. The Republicans must recruit socially moderate-to-liberal candidates that are ready to pounce on the first sign of weakness in a Democratic office-holder. This is the mirror-image of what the Democrats have done in picking off southern seats in both the Senate and the House. Once the Republicans have reestablished a rump of socially moderate-liberal members, they’ll be back on the path to a viable national party.
If you look dispassionately at the two major parties, you’ll quickly realize that the Democrats have a demographic advantage. The Democrats are strong with Latinos and the youth-vote, and they’re on the more popular side of the social issues debate. If the Republicans continue on their present path, they’ll alienate growing populations within the electorate to such a degree that they will find themselves in a permanent minority status.
Unfortunately for their political strategists, the last two elections have wiped out their most moderate members. I don’t think it will be possible, in the short-term, for the Republicans to adapt their message successfully. The real change will come organically, as they slowly win back seats in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Upper Midwest. They can win some of those seats with typical conservatives, but only when a Democratic member slips up and causes some kind of scandal. The quicker path is to recruit socially moderate/liberal candidates that neutralize that disadvantage and allow the electorate to judge their choice on other issues.
This is how the Democrats won seats recently in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. The base of the Democratic Party wasn’t enthusiastic about these Southern cultural conservatives, but they helped add to the Democratic majorities and they will eventually help the Democratic Party compete culturally in the South. Democrats would obviously prefer to win Southern seats with candidates that fully share the base’s values on cultural issues, and the Republicans are no different when it comes to the North and Northeast. But you can’t wait forever for something that may never come.
The Republican Party allowed themselves to become too homogeneous and they must adapt. Their current leaders are ill-suited to make the needed adjustments, but if they just recruit correctly the change will come about in an organic fashion. They’ll elect enough moderates to have the moderates begin to change the overall brand of the party. Once the brand changes sufficiently, the Republicans will be a viable national party again. I don’t see any way they can accomplish this in the next four years, but they can get started.
And now I am done advising Republicans.
