While Peter Beinert is quite possibly correct to predict that Barack Obama’s foreign affairs nominations are meant to protect his right flank so that he can safely move to the left, he doesn’t address one topic that Obama raised in the campaign. Barack Obama said, quite often, that we needed to change the kind of mentality in Washington that got us into Iraq in the first place. Now, everyone has the capacity to learn. Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton have presumably adjusted their foreign policy views in light of the debacle in Iraq, as well as the ensuing financial crisis. Some mindsets are changed without necessarily changing the people that are in charge. But the real concern on the left is that Obama is filling out his foreign policy team almost exclusively with people whose instincts were wrong on Iraq. That is not promising if the goal is to change the paradigm through which Washington views its foreign policy options.
There is no doubt that there is value in staffing up with some hawks and some ardent pro-Israeli thinkers if your goal is to move in a more dovish direction. It is wise to protect the right flank. But the Democrats run a risk. Since at least the time of McCarthy, Democrats have consistently found it necessary to protect their right flank, which is why they tend to select Republicans to run the Defense Department. It is a structural feature of American politics that the right wing will attack the Democrats as being soft on defense, even going so far as to concoct intelligence and statistics to make their case.
We saw this happen first with the whole ‘Who lost China’ debate, then the ‘Let’s Nuke China’ debate, then the ‘Let’s invade Cuba’ debate, then the ‘Let’s invade Vietnam’ debate, then the ‘The Soviets have established military superiority’ debate, and finally the ‘Democrats are soft on terror’ debate. At some point, we have to stand up and beat back this structural deficit.
There is no magic wand that will solve this problem. The Republicans will continue to make these attacks. And one way to deal with the attacks is to bring in reasonable Republicans, like Robert Gates, Chuck Hagel, and Richard Lugar, and marginalize the crazies. But this comes with a price tag. Moreover, staffing up with Hawks, even moderate Hawks, is going to determine that the kind of advice Obama is getting has a Hawkish bias. And it is a Hawkish bias that led us into Iraq.
You can see the tension here, which is why I continue to advise the Obama transition team to make sure they have some George Ball-types on their foreign policy team. Many people think Obama is selecting centrists and hawks because he agrees with them. Beinert suggests he is picking them because he doesn’t agree with them. But even if Beinert is right, Obama needs allies in his inner counsels. That is where the left is concerned. We want the mindset that got us into Iraq to change, and we don’t trust that that will happen if the only mind that reflects that change is Obama’s.
A lot of Obama’s appointments to date look like transitionary figures. I can’t see many of them still being in place in 4 years time. They will have to take the flack for the very difficult decisions that will have to be taken in the meantime. They have been chosen for their ability to take the heat off Obama himself – they are not his people, but Republicans, Clintonistas, moderates, Washington insiders and their failures will have less impact on Obama personally, because they are players in their own right.
Meanwhile Obama and his team will form a kitchen cabinet within the White House where the real strategising will be done. After 4 years they will gradually come to prominence and the real OBama footprint will become clear. The Overton window will have moved. The centrist solutions will have been tried. And where they have failed a more radical policy position will take shape.
This is all about maximising political capital and putting your defensive structures into place. Obama will play offense too, but only on carefully selected battlegrounds, and at a time and place of his choosing.
Expect Obama to be ruthless in dealing with failures – none of his appointees, with the possible exception of Clinton, is unsackable, and even she would be were she seen to have made a major mistake.
Gates will be gone unless the withdrawal from Iraq makes good progress and Afghanistan is seen to be turned around. If he doesn’t get out of there too, soon, he will be replaced by someone who will get the US out. Quite apart from anything else, the US can no longer afford such wars, and that will be clear as domestic unemployment rises.
They key to all this will be increasing the productive capacity of the economy to carry the increased debt burdon, create jobs, reduce foreclosures and improve consumer confidence. Without such growth the USA is toast -and that means reducing expenditure on dysfunctional wars and financial systems.
“This is all about maximising political capital and putting your defensive structures into place. Obama will play offense too, but only on carefully selected battlegrounds, and at a time and place of his choosing.”
Obama does not have time for this type of strategy. The stark reality of the global recession will see to that. We’re talking about immediate, radical, fundamental change needed on or before January 20 to keep America from collapsing under the weight of toxic derivatives in the hundreds of trillions plus.
It’s not a matter of political capital. It’s a matter of the people who got us into this mess are being called upon to get us out, and only a complete and total fundamental rewrite of America’s economy, radical action that makes the last ten weeks look tame by comparison.
Not only must the scale and scope of the action be completely radical, but the competence and the political will to execute the plans must be there. It must be made plain to America that this is our only choice.
We’re trying to navigate our way through a minefield with a massive boulder chasing us. Stopping to carefully maneuver through the mines will only get us crushed by the boulder…the only solution is jumping over the minefield in one, unprecedented leap and hope the landing’s good.
Incremental, transitory figures are at best going to slow Obama down. Does he have the sheer political will to make the leap, as cautious and as pragmatic as he’s been up until now?
We don’t have time for do-overs or mulligans. We get one shot at this. And so far, there’s plenty of reason to worry.
I agree with you Zandar, Obama does not have time for a quiet and orderly transition. As you point out, its those damned toxic derivatives the total value of which no one seems to know or wants to talk about. Is this why our financial institutions are so reluctant to loan one another any money? They know how precarious everything is in our current banking world?
Besides, you go with your first team when the championship is on the line and everything seems to be coming apart. You don’t start the subs.
Is Gates at Defense some kind of bad joke? He did his share to block investigations into the Iran Contra affair back under George Bush, senior, and his positions on Iraq and Afghanistan are anything but dove like. I don’t think he is the one who will bring the Pentegon under budgetary control either. What’s wrong with Wesley Clark as Secretary of Defense?
Obama has no option other than this strategy. Failure is assured in the short term – nobody has a grip on exactly what the problem is, let alone a solution – so the best strategy is to set up moderation for the inevitible fall, thereby enabling a more radical – dare I say “liberal” – approach. If he goes liberal first and that fails then you wouldn’t see a liberal policy proposed or passed in the next 50 years. On the other hand, if the moderate policy works then nobody should have a problem with it – it’s a win-win.
Foreign policy and economics. Connected, yes, but different.
He’s keeping Gates to ease the transition. If Gates is in place, then the Repukeliscum have fewer targets. We can reduce the troops in Iraq, starting on Day 1, and Gates will do that. Once that is in place, then Obama will get him out, and get in someone to stay for the long haul.
The economic arena is more difficult. Again, transitional figures to take the heat are good. Do the hard stuff with them, pull them out and with their removal go some of the negative feelings.
When Rumsfeld was removed by the moron Bush AFTER the 2006 election (surely one of the stupidest decisions ever made by any president), many of the bad feelings associated with the war went too.
Removing Rumsfeld was one of Bush’s stupidest decisions?!
Waiting until after the 2006 elections was the stupid part…
Keeping Gates is a really bad decision. Gates is worse than Brennan. Much worse.
Gates is the scapegoat, who will be used to accumulate the sins and errors of the withdrawal. Then, when the time is right, he will be asked to resign, and a new, clean SoD will be installed who can implement better policies, but without baggage. I think keeping Gates is a good idea.
Gates is a really bad actor, and if Obama does not dump him on Jan 20 there will never be a right time for Gates to go.
Finding someone who didn’t get fooled by the marketing campaign for the Great and Patriotic War for a Lie in Iraq is a tall order.
Almost everyone got fooled.
I didn’t, but I don’t think 30 years as a trainer and instructional designer qualifies me to run a Cabinet level department.
I just saw on TPM that Samantha Power has been added to the State Department transition team. Will that help?
No.