Ron Brownstein makes a startling, but happy observation. Given expected demographic changes, if different ethnic groups vote in the same percentages twelve years from now as they did last November, what will be the result?
These trends point toward trouble for the GOP if it cannot attract more minorities, especially Hispanics, and reverse the recent Democratic inroads among well-educated whites.
The best way to illustrate that prospect is to pitch the thought experiment forward 12 years. Imagine that the major demographic groups voted as they did in 2008, but cast a share of the vote equal to their expected share of the population in 2020. (For argument’s sake, let’s divide whites among college and noncollege voters in the same proportions as today.) In that scenario, Obama beats McCain by nearly 14 points — almost twice as much as in 2008.
Voter preferences are not static, but they are sticky. A built in fourteen-point advantage is so large that it would be difficult to lose. What I can say with a high degree of confidence is that the GOP cannot overcome such a demographic disadvantage using their current arsenal of issues and rhetoric. What passes for mainstream Republicanism today (Hannity, Limbaugh, Coulter) must, by necessity, be shunted to the margins of American politics. If it is not, there is little doubt that the GOP will no longer be viable as a pillar of the two-party system.
Personally, I think it is likely that the GOP will survive, but more through organic change than concerted strategic efforts. In the short-term I expect more traditionally reliable red states to move into the purple or light-blue column. In 2012, it’s likely that Obama will win states that he narrowly lost (like Montana, the Dakotas, Arizona, Georgia, Missouri) and that he will become competitive in others that he lost more convincingly (West Virginia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Mississippi).
I don’t think the GOP will survive in a recognizable form.
