If I were Bob Menendez, head of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), I wouldn’t necessarily be interested in moving the Senate in a progressive direction. What I would want to do is take over as many Republican seats as possible in 2010 in order to cripple opposition to the Obama administration and to take advantage of a third straight favorable political season before the tide turns back in the Republican’s favor in 2012. My goal would be to win a net of eight seats, giving the Democrats a true supermajority of 67 seats. Now, how would I get there? Let’s look at the races.
Indiana: Evan Bayh is a strong candidate who will be very difficult to defeat. I’d like to see a progressive challenger just to hold Bayh’s feet to the fire, but Menendez just wants this race to take care of itself.
Colorado: Michael Bennet just won an appointment to this seat. If I’m Menendez, I’m hoping that Bennet emerges as a good senator that can raise money for his own defense of this seat. I’d look for signs of weakness, especially if the Republicans come up with a strong challenger, but I’d look to strengthen Bennet and discourage primary contenders.
Utah: Robert Bennett is getting old and might retire. But this seat should be safe for the Republicans even if it becomes an open seat. Just in case, I’d keep in touch with Rep. Jim Matheson. It doesn’t hurt to plan for success. If the political climate moves strongly in Obama’s direction, no seat will be safe for the Republicans.
Missouri: Kit Bond is retiring and the Democrats already have their top recruit in Secretary of State Robin Carnahan. This is one of the top races for 2010.
California: Barbara Boxer should be safe but the Republicans will give her a run for her money. Carly Fiorina or Arnold Schwarzenegger could be strong contenders.
Kansas: Sam Brownback is retiring to run for governor. Recent polls show that Gov. Kathleen Sebelius would be an early favorite to win this seat. She must be recruited because no one else is likely to make this race competitive.
Kentucky: The Republicans want Jim Bunning to retire. If he does not, this seat will almost definitely be won by the Democrats. If I’m Menendez, I get behind Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, who almost beat Bunning six years ago. However, Rep. Ben Chandler and State Auditer Crit Luallen are also formidable recruits.
North Carolina: Richard Burr could be vulnerable. The Democrats have a wealth of potential opponents, including Reps. Brad Miller and Heath Shuler. If I’m Menendez, I encourage all the strong candidates to enter the primary and then embrace the winner.
Idaho: Mike Crapo is unbeatable. I’d find a candidate to run in case of scandal, but I would not otherwise waste any resources on this race.
South Carolina: I’d like to make the defeat of Jim DeMint a high priority, but I don’t know of any good candidates that can get the job done.
Connecticut: Chris Dodd has shown some weak poll numbers lately and could face a fairly strong challenge from former Rep. Rob Simmons. This is a defensive race to keep an eye on. It’s also possible that Dodd will retire.
North Dakota: Byron Dorgan is very popular but he can’t be considered too safe in such a conservative state. This is a race that Menendez needs to be prepared to defend.
Wisconsin: Russ Feingold is in good position to win reelection, but Rep. Paul Ryan could make it interesting if the political climate turns ugly for the Democrats.
Iowa: Chuck Grassley might retire. If he doesn’t, there is no point in contesting this race. If he does, this becomes one of the hottest races in the country. Menendez needs to be prepared to recruit a top notch candidate.
New Hampshire: With Judd Gregg joining the Obama administration, this race will be open in 2010. I’d recruit Carol Shea-Porter because she’ll have an easier time winning statewide than Paul Hodes, but Hodes will make an excellent recruit, as well.
Hawaii: Dan Inouye is getting up in age but says he is going to run again. If he does, he wins. If he doesn’t, this race could become unexpectedly competitive. Gov. Linda Lingle is a Republican.
Georgia: Johnny Isakson could be vulnerable. Maybe Jim Martin could win this seat. In general, Georgia is a tough state with a weak Democratic bench.
Delaware: Ted Kaufman is not running for reelection. It looks like this race will go to Beau Biden.
Vermont: Patrick Leahy should be safe.
Arkansas: Blanche Lincoln should be safe but Mike Huckabee could make things interesting.
Florida: Mel Martinez is retiring and there will be a competitive primary. Whoever wins is going to need a ton of money.
Arizona: John McCain says he plans to run for reelection. I’m not so sure. We need to be prepared if the seat comes open.
Maryland: If Barbara Mikulski retires, I recruit Chris Van Hollen to replace her.
Alaska: Lisa Murkowski might get a primary challenge from Sarah Palin. With that amount of blood on the ground, it’s imperative that the Dems have a good recruit in place to take advantage. Maybe Ethan Berkowitz?
Washington: Patty Murray could get a strong challenge from Dave Reichert.
Nevada: Harry Reid is supposed to be vulnerable but the Republicans have no decent challengers.
New York: Chuck Schumer is safe.
New York: Kirsten Gillibrand might get a primary. I wouldn’t interfere.
Alabama: Richard Shelby is very popular at home and is increasingly powerful in the GOP caucus. I’d recruit Commissioner of Agriculture Ron Sparks to run against him.
Pennsylvania: Arlen Specter says he is running again. I think Rep. Patrick Murphy would clean his clock. I would recruit him over other candidates.
South Dakota: John Thune is safe.
Louisiana: David Vitter likes to wear diapers. Don Cazayouz might be a strong recruit.
Ohio: George Voinovich is retiring. I would support Tim Ryan as the strongest recruit.
Oregon: Ron Wyden should be safe.
Illinois: There is going to be a primary in Illinois and there is no point in pretending otherwise. If I am Menendez, I ask the contenders to keep the contest as civil as possible and embrace the eventual winner.
Oklahoma: Tom Coburn might retire. If he does not, this race could become competitive if either Gov. Brad Henry or Rep. Dan Boren is willing to enter the race. I would recruit Henry before Boren. If neither of them is willing to run the race is probably hopeless, but I’d ask state Rep. Andrew Rice to give it a second go.
Here is how we win a net of eight seats. We hold all the seat we currently own, and we win the following (in order of probability).
1. Ohio
2. Missouri
3. New Hampshire
4. Kentucky
5. Florida
6. Louisiana
7. Kansas
8. Pennsylvania
And, since it is hard to run the table, it’s important to look for opportunities in Alaska, South Carolina, North Carolina, Oklahoma, and Georgia.
