Back on June 26, 2007, the Senate had a cloture vote on the Employee Free Choice Act. It only received 51 votes. If Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD) had been healthy, the bill probably would have received 52 votes. Every other Democrat voted for cloture. Arlen Specter (R-PA) also voted for cloture…the only Republican to do so. With Sen. Johnson now recovered, and with eight more Democrats in the Senate (once Al Franken is seated), there should be the bare minimum sixty votes to invoke cloture, cut off debate, and have an up or down vote on the bill.
But, back in 2007, the Democrats had a free vote on the bill. They knew they could please the unions by voting for cloture without angering business by voting to make the bill law. Now that the bill could actually pass, the calculus has changed.
Republican Arlen Specter (Pa.) and Democrats Blanche Lincoln (Ark.), Michael Bennet (Colo.) and Harry Reid (Nev.) will be front-and-center as the bill progresses in the coming months, and all are facing tremendous pressure from both sides of the issue as they prepare to face voters in 18 months…
…Bennet, Lincoln and Specter have all professed uncertainty on the issue in recent days, while the supportive Reid will be responsible for shepherding it to the 60 votes needed to bring it to a final vote.
Lincoln and Reid face conflict as Democrats in right-to-work states, in which employees can’t be forced to join a union as a condition of employment, while Specter’s blue-trending state is a prime Democratic target.
Bennet, who was appointed earlier this year to replace Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, could face a tough race in a swing state.
While all face potential general-election peril, they also risk irritating their party bases. Bennet and Specter, in particular, face the distinct possibility of potent primary challenges.
Various astroturf outfits are running anti-unionization ads.
The anti-EFCA Employee Freedom Action Committee and the Center for Union Facts have already been running ads in Lincoln’s and Bennet’s home states, and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is targeting Specter and Democratic senators in Louisiana, Nebraska and Virginia with newspaper and radio ads.
The Republicans are treating the Employee Free Choice Act in apocalyptic terms. They really feel that the bill would do lasting damage to their electoral prospects and further cement them in a permanent minority. In spite of this, senators in union-heavy states like Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and George Voinovich (R-OH) will feel a lot of pressure to vote for the bill. Voinovich will feel somewhat less pressure either way because he is not running for reelection.
The unions have already stated that they will back any senator that supports the legislation to the hilt, even if they are Republicans. However, only Murkowski is likely to benefit from such support in a primary. Alaska in one of the most heavily unionized states in the country.
Meanwhile, the two senators from Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor) have to deal with the considerable influence of Wal*Mart and Tyson Foods in their home states, and will not be eager to support the legislation. Sen. Mary Landrieu will also be feeling the heat. And, as noted above, ads are running against Sens. Jim Webb and Mark Warner in Virginia and Ben Nelson in Nebraska.
Given that the Democrats have to run the table and hold onto every vote (plus Specter), the odds of passing the EFCA are not looking too good. If Harry Reid can pull it off, he’ll deserve a medal.
The liberal blogosphere has never been Reid’s biggest fan, and some have expressed frustration about his leadership on the legislation.
Liberal blogger David Sirota last week suggested that if Reid can’t deliver every Democratic senator on the issue, labor unions should fund a third-party candidate who could steal just enough votes from him to allow Republicans to take the seat.
That seems like an unfair standard to me.
