Seeing Sen. John Ensign (R-NV) acting like an idiot got me thinking about the future of Republicans in the Senate. When they convene in 2011, what is the Senate likely to look like? Here are some predictions.
Right now, Chris Dodd (D-CT) appears to be the only vulnerable Democrat who will be up for reelection in 2010 (I’m assuming that Roland Burris will not be the Democratic candidate on election day). But, Dodd will probably win if he doesn’t retire or take a job within the Obama administration. The Democrats will probably see a few new members: Beau Biden from Delaware, Alexi Giannoulias from Illinois, and possibly replacements for Teddy Kennedy in Massachusetts and Robert Byrd in West Virginia. These won’t represent any change in the balance of power, but they will constitute new blood. We’ll see if Michael Bennet can hold on in the primary in Colorado.
The Republicans, on the other hand, will be without the retiring Kit Bond of Missouri, George Voinovich of Ohio, Sam Brownback of Kansas, Judd Gregg of New Hampshire, and Mel Martinez of Florida. They’ll almost definitely be lacking Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas, who will probably be governor at that point. It’s not unlikely that Sen. Tom Coburn of Oklahoma and Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa will have retired. Sen. Jim Bunning of Kentucky will have been defeated in either the primary or the general. The same can probably be said of Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania.
In all likelihood, the Democrats will have picked up seats in New Hampshire (Paul Hodes), Missouri (Robin Carnahan), Pennsylvania, and Ohio. The Democrats have a better than even chance of picking up seats in Kentucky and North Carolina. And, depending on the breaks, the Dems could win seats in Iowa and Florida. Throw in prostitute-loving David Vitter in Louisiana for good measure as a possible election day loser. If things get really ugly we could see races in South Carolina (DeMint) and Georgia (Isakson) become competitive.
On a bad day, the chances are good that the Dems will pick up 3-4 seats. On a great day they could net as many as ten seats, which would put their majority at 69-31. Outside of Maine, the Republicans would have no senators from the Maryland suburbs of Washington DC all the way up through the Mid-Atlantic, New England, and out the Upper Midwest to the Minnesota border of South Dakota. They’d still have no senators on the West Coast and only one out of four in Hawaii and Alaska (assuming Lisa Murkowski wins reelection).
And, honestly, that’s where the Republican senate is heading. It may not be as bad as the worst case scenario, but the best case still would leave them with about thirty-seven seats. So, keep it up Ensign. You’re doing God’s work.
and come to think of it, under my worst case scenario, you could draw a line from the southeastern border of Idaho all the way out to Iowa thru Ohio down to DC and back up to border of Maine and John Thune of South Dakota would be the only Republican within it.
Why they aren’t all tossed out on their ears after their track record is beyond me.
You seem to be forgetting Dick Lugar in Indiana. I don’t really see a scenario where he’s not around in 2011.
Regardless, another grim way of looking at it from the Republican side is that Dick Lugar, Mitch McConnell, Susan Collins, and Olympia Snowe might soon be the only Republicans representing states that stayed with the Union in the Civil War. And even among the states of the Confederacy, the Dems already have 7 out of 22 seats, and could pick up as many as four more in NC, TX, LA, and FL.
Oops, you’re right about Lugar. My mistake.
Given either scenario, in 2011 the republican’t party will further hype up the rhetoric, and send Joe the non-plumber and Sarah Palin on separate whirlwind tours to fleece the sheeple some more and hate mongers like Rush will double down seeing the last three election cycles were such outstanding success, (from his standpoint of being the only hope, in his mind, the wingnuts have left ….)
By 2012, the republican’t party will begin to look like a black hole in politics, with dimming stars and hanger-ons surrounding them for a generation or so.
Either they find a way out of this seeming death spiral, or they become a 21st century version of the Whigs they replaced, for essentially the same reasons, they were no longer relevant to the body politics of the day.
Hmm got to disagree. It’s almost inconceivable right now that Dodd will win based on the numbers we have. Also, why would West Virginia elect another Democrat that is not Byrd? Beau Biden is also about even with his potential challengers right now.
why would West Virginia elect another Democrat that is not Byrd?
I think WV is a lot more democratic than it seemed in the last election. They’re stupid, ignorant and probably the most racist state in the union, but favor democrats as long as they’re white.
You left out ugly.
nalbar
Talk about timing….
I was channel flipping earlier and saw the Miss USA pageant and saw Miss WV in the swimsuit competition and she did not fare that well versus some of the numbers for the other ladies.
I thought they dropped the swimsuit stuff years back.
Ummm. Ouch. Overgeneralize much?
My money (which is not much and not all that accurate) leads me to believe that WV will put Joe Manchin (the current gov) into Byrd’s seat either in 2012 (when Joe is term limited) or earlier should Byrd not make it to 2012.
I’m not sure about stupid and ignorant, to be honest. My only guess as to the last few presidential cycles is that the religion angle was played quite well in WV by the Repubs. We’re bluer than one might think. It’s like the Dems in the last few cycles just either took us for granted or did not pay enough attention at all.
Hi Robert! That could all be said about my state as well, so you’re not alone;-)
My corner of Indiana happens to be a lot more to the left of much of the state due mainly to the large university next door.