Seeing Sen. John Ensign (R-NV) acting like an idiot got me thinking about the future of Republicans in the Senate. When they convene in 2011, what is the Senate likely to look like? Here are some predictions.
Right now, Chris Dodd (D-CT) appears to be the only vulnerable Democrat who will be up for reelection in 2010 (I’m assuming that Roland Burris will not be the Democratic candidate on election day). But, Dodd will probably win if he doesn’t retire or take a job within the Obama administration. The Democrats will probably see a few new members: Beau Biden from Delaware, Alexi Giannoulias from Illinois, and possibly replacements for Teddy Kennedy in Massachusetts and Robert Byrd in West Virginia. These won’t represent any change in the balance of power, but they will constitute new blood. We’ll see if Michael Bennet can hold on in the primary in Colorado.
The Republicans, on the other hand, will be without the retiring Kit Bond of Missouri, George Voinovich of Ohio, Sam Brownback of Kansas, Judd Gregg of New Hampshire, and Mel Martinez of Florida. They’ll almost definitely be lacking Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas, who will probably be governor at that point. It’s not unlikely that Sen. Tom Coburn of Oklahoma and Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa will have retired. Sen. Jim Bunning of Kentucky will have been defeated in either the primary or the general. The same can probably be said of Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania.
In all likelihood, the Democrats will have picked up seats in New Hampshire (Paul Hodes), Missouri (Robin Carnahan), Pennsylvania, and Ohio. The Democrats have a better than even chance of picking up seats in Kentucky and North Carolina. And, depending on the breaks, the Dems could win seats in Iowa and Florida. Throw in prostitute-loving David Vitter in Louisiana for good measure as a possible election day loser. If things get really ugly we could see races in South Carolina (DeMint) and Georgia (Isakson) become competitive.
On a bad day, the chances are good that the Dems will pick up 3-4 seats. On a great day they could net as many as ten seats, which would put their majority at 69-31. Outside of Maine, the Republicans would have no senators from the Maryland suburbs of Washington DC all the way up through the Mid-Atlantic, New England, and out the Upper Midwest to the Minnesota border of South Dakota. They’d still have no senators on the West Coast and only one out of four in Hawaii and Alaska (assuming Lisa Murkowski wins reelection).
And, honestly, that’s where the Republican senate is heading. It may not be as bad as the worst case scenario, but the best case still would leave them with about thirty-seven seats. So, keep it up Ensign. You’re doing God’s work.
