During 2008, Gallup Polls documented something ominous for the Republican Party. While as recently as 2002 the majority of U.S. states were Republican in orientation, by 2008 the Democrats had the edge in 41 states and the District of Columbia, and were tied in two others. Gallup noted that the swift movement indicated how quickly fortunes can change in politics, but they also said this:
With Democratic support at the national level the highest in more than two decades and growing each of the last five years, Republican prospects for significant gains in power in the near term do not appear great.
In fact, their prospects look rather dismal. This week’s Research 2000 poll has the Republicans in Congress getting 15% approval ratings and their leaders doing about the same (McConnell 22%, Boehner 17%). A full 70% of the people have an unfavorable view of Congressional Republicans. To be honest, the situation is even worse than these numbers indicate because the Republicans are vastly more popular in the South than they are in any other region of the country. A look at the Research 2000 crosstabs reveals this. Congressional Republicans get a 28% approval rating in the South, but only 10% in the West and Midwest, and only 8% in the Northeast. The Republican Party has an 85% disapproval rating in the Northeast, but only a 49% disapproval rating in the South (the only region where they outperform the Democrats).
The point is that the nationally-averaged numbers are masking the depth of the GOP’s problems. To make any kind of comeback either in Congress or in the Electoral College, the Republicans have to win outside the South, and they are showing no capacity to do so. Moreover, as Jonathan Martin and Ben Smith reveal in today’s Politico, the Republican base is not moderating their positions or demands at all. Destroying abortion rights and deporting Hispanics remain their two biggest political goals. Party leaders would like to moderate their positions but cannot even get a fair hearing from their activists.
What I take from this is that the Republican are not going to start winning elections any time soon outside of the South (with the exception of a few swing districts in the House). Their position will grow even worse after the 2010 redistricting, as the Democrats control the process in many more states than do the Republicans. So, how are the Republicans going to make a comeback?
I believe it will happen organically rather than as the result of some revamped message or moderated platform. Despite the Democrats’ huge favorability advantage, several of their governors are vulnerable or term-limited. It is not hard to envision the Republicans winning the gubernatorial races this November in both Virginia and New Jersey. Next year, they could easily win in Michigan. In a down economy, even some party stars like Massachusetts governor Deval Patrick are suffering in the polls.
Once the Republicans win governor’s races in Blue States, those new governors will have run their states effectively, which means they can’t be the ‘Party of No’. They won’t really have much in common with an Eric Cantor or a Mitch McConnell. If they want to get reelected, they’ll have to be somewhat moderate on social issues and immigration. Over time, the Republicans will begin picking off House and Senate seats in the Northeast and West Coast again, but at first only when there is a taint of scandal or an open seat.
However, to achieve something as difficult as retaking control of the House of Representatives, they’ll probably have to do something that only Democrats have a history of accomplishing. They’ll have to tie together a Northern and Southern wing of the party that are bitterly divided on social issues. I have real trouble believing that that can be done by the more authoritarian right. For the time being, it looks like the Democrats will hold the House of Representatives indefinitely, hold the Senate until at least 2014, and probably beyond, and have a virtual lock on the Electoral College provided that the candidates are somewhat evenly matched in skill and charisma.
So long as the Republicans let demagogues like Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh speak for their base, they will continue to be in trouble.
If I were a Republican, I’d insist the leadership move to replace those voices immediately, to marginalize them, to say those people do not speak for conservatives.
But the thing is, they do. And the right is going to have a tough time because of that.
The nut of the problem with the GOP is that they don’t have a leadership. They have people in leadership positions, but those people are not leaders. They can’t get people to follow them, which means that they have no power to do anything other than get in front of the rest of the group and pretend like they’re leading the way.
So you won’t see anyone in a “leadership” role moving to marginalize Hannity or Limbaugh or even Beck anytime soon – they can’t and they know it. It would marginalize them to even try because they just aren’t popular enough with the people who make up the Republican Party to call the idiots out.
We saw this during the campaign last year – not one of the candidates for the GOP slot were popular enough within their own party to be able to set an agenda. Not one. They ALL had to work to out wingnut the others for any hope to win the nomination. In the end John McCain had to throw away a persona that he spent decades crafting in order to get in front of the idiot parade and pretend like he was leading the pack.
Until someone hits the national scene who can drag a bunch of actual moderates back into the GOP AND has enough charisma to convince the base to come along for the ride, the GOP is going to be hurting. I’m not sure that’s going to happen anytime soon. They would almost need to have a second coming of Ronald Reagan – and even that might not be enough to do the job now given how reactionary the activist base is compared to the rest of the nation right now.
Serpenthead agrees with me, basically.
Deval Patrick has been in trouble before the economy started tanking. Hope Obama proves to be different than Gov. Patrick.
I also would certainly LIKE to think that the omnipresence of credible information on the Internet is helping to persuade moderate people not to blindly follow talking heads, but to find out other points of view and then make up their own minds. I hope that’s part of what’s happening.
i know that times are hard but, given my total agreement with your position, wouldn’t you think that it might be wise to make some donations to the loony right congress folks. The louder they are the better it is.
I don’t think you can predict political futures through history or polling. The Dems are in power because our government hit bottom under the Reps, and they promised change. If they fail to deliver that change (and it’s looking like a much harder struggle than it should be), the reaction could put the GOP on top in just a few years. I wish I were more confident that our beloved Dem “representatives” really understand that.
The next step has to be to replace those Dem “moderate” bipartisan leaders who basically went all the way with Cheny/Bush – they’re the ones who will sell out on Obama and any progressive agenda – and hand victory right back to the GOP again.