During 2008, Gallup Polls documented something ominous for the Republican Party. While as recently as 2002 the majority of U.S. states were Republican in orientation, by 2008 the Democrats had the edge in 41 states and the District of Columbia, and were tied in two others. Gallup noted that the swift movement indicated how quickly fortunes can change in politics, but they also said this:
With Democratic support at the national level the highest in more than two decades and growing each of the last five years, Republican prospects for significant gains in power in the near term do not appear great.
In fact, their prospects look rather dismal. This week’s Research 2000 poll has the Republicans in Congress getting 15% approval ratings and their leaders doing about the same (McConnell 22%, Boehner 17%). A full 70% of the people have an unfavorable view of Congressional Republicans. To be honest, the situation is even worse than these numbers indicate because the Republicans are vastly more popular in the South than they are in any other region of the country. A look at the Research 2000 crosstabs reveals this. Congressional Republicans get a 28% approval rating in the South, but only 10% in the West and Midwest, and only 8% in the Northeast. The Republican Party has an 85% disapproval rating in the Northeast, but only a 49% disapproval rating in the South (the only region where they outperform the Democrats).
The point is that the nationally-averaged numbers are masking the depth of the GOP’s problems. To make any kind of comeback either in Congress or in the Electoral College, the Republicans have to win outside the South, and they are showing no capacity to do so. Moreover, as Jonathan Martin and Ben Smith reveal in today’s Politico, the Republican base is not moderating their positions or demands at all. Destroying abortion rights and deporting Hispanics remain their two biggest political goals. Party leaders would like to moderate their positions but cannot even get a fair hearing from their activists.
What I take from this is that the Republican are not going to start winning elections any time soon outside of the South (with the exception of a few swing districts in the House). Their position will grow even worse after the 2010 redistricting, as the Democrats control the process in many more states than do the Republicans. So, how are the Republicans going to make a comeback?
I believe it will happen organically rather than as the result of some revamped message or moderated platform. Despite the Democrats’ huge favorability advantage, several of their governors are vulnerable or term-limited. It is not hard to envision the Republicans winning the gubernatorial races this November in both Virginia and New Jersey. Next year, they could easily win in Michigan. In a down economy, even some party stars like Massachusetts governor Deval Patrick are suffering in the polls.
Once the Republicans win governor’s races in Blue States, those new governors will have run their states effectively, which means they can’t be the ‘Party of No’. They won’t really have much in common with an Eric Cantor or a Mitch McConnell. If they want to get reelected, they’ll have to be somewhat moderate on social issues and immigration. Over time, the Republicans will begin picking off House and Senate seats in the Northeast and West Coast again, but at first only when there is a taint of scandal or an open seat.
However, to achieve something as difficult as retaking control of the House of Representatives, they’ll probably have to do something that only Democrats have a history of accomplishing. They’ll have to tie together a Northern and Southern wing of the party that are bitterly divided on social issues. I have real trouble believing that that can be done by the more authoritarian right. For the time being, it looks like the Democrats will hold the House of Representatives indefinitely, hold the Senate until at least 2014, and probably beyond, and have a virtual lock on the Electoral College provided that the candidates are somewhat evenly matched in skill and charisma.
