The ultra-conservative senator Jim DeMint broke the news to Arlen Specter last Thursday.
Last Thursday night on the Senate floor, Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., told Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter, then still a Republican, that DeMint would be supporting Specter’s rival, former Rep. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., in next year’s Senate Republican primary. DeMint says Specter “pretty much cut me off and said, ‘I’ve heard enough.’”
Sen. DeMint explained himself today.
“I would rather have 30 Republicans in the Senate who really believe in principles of limited government, free markets, free people, than to have 60 that don’t have a set of beliefs.”
I want to explain how DeMint might succeed in getting his wish.
With Arlen Specter and Al Franken, the Democrats now how have 58 votes plus the two Independents, Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders, in their caucus. The Republicans are stuck at forty members. How could the Republicans lose ten more seats in 2010?
Start with the fact that five Republicans have already announced that they are retiring: Sam Brownback of Kansas, Mel Martinez of Florida, Judd Gregg of New Hampshire, George Voinovich of Ohio, and Kit Bond of Missouri. Kansas will probably remain in Republican hands, but the others could easily fall to the Democrats. The situation in Florida is highly dependent on whether or not Governor Crist decides to run for for Martinez’s seat or go for another term in the Statehouse. Let’s be optimistic and assume the Democrats pick up four of these five seats.
Then we need to talk about other potential retirements. There is a lot of speculation that Chuck Grassley of Iowa and Tom Coburn of Oklahoma might call it quits. If they do, the Democrats have solid candidates to run in both states. Let’s assume they the pick up these two seats as well. That puts us at a six-seat pickup.
Incumbents Richard Burr of North Carolina and Jim Bunning of Kentucky are extremely vulnerable. Their seats could bring us to a pickup of eight.
David Vitter is running for reelection on a platform of being most famous for procuring hookers for himself instead of federal aid for his state. That seat could make nine.
To get to ten, the Democrats would have to field a strong candidate to run against either Johnny Isakson of Georgia or Jim DeMint of South Carolina.
There are also long-shot opportunities if John McCain of Arizona or Bob Bennett of Utah get fed up with their own right-wing primary challengers and call it quits.
The only really safe Republicans appear to be Lisa Murkowski of Alaska (assuming Sarah Palin makes no trouble), Mike Crapo of Idaho, and Richard Shelby of Alabama (a former Democrat).
I’m not suggesting that DeMint will get his wish, but it seems a whole lot more likely today than it seemed yesterday.
Just to put some names to this so we can envision it.
Of course, we could pick up number ten from Georgia or Arizona, too.
We really have strong candidates, and further retirements could make the damage severe.
Another outside possibility is that Olympia Snowe will bolt, giving us an ext-ree.
may not have much to worry about in terms of electability up there in maine, but she’s on steele’s shitlist over the stimulus vote…along with collins and the now ex-RAT specter…an expensive, brutal, and ugly primary challenge might be just the thing to give the dems a shot at the seat…if they can find a candidate.
Snowe won reelection in 2006, so she isn’t up until 2012. She has no need to switch, but without Chafee, Specter, Jeffords, Sununu, and Gregg, she is feeling pretty isolated and unloved.
And they’ll never primary her(because Steele and Limbsugh don’t know a thing about Maine) … even if they still harbor that grudge in 2012 … so the only way she’ll switch is if they get their panties further in a bunch(meaning Steele .. Limbaugh .. et al.)
In all honesty…I think Snowe is definitely the most likely of the two here to switch. (out of her and Collins of course) But according to her statement today (of which i am too inebriated to search for the link) I highly doubt it’s likely at this time. Maybe if we put the thumbscrews to her….
Granted this is anecdotal at best, but I have slowly convinced my husband’s family to lean more left. (it’s taken alot of time to do so!!) But they are really fed up with the republicans actions and have actually been emailing their senators for the first time in their lives and rumors are around here are that they aren’t alone so only time will tell.
People tend to forget that most of Maine is rural…you have the big city which is Portland, where I happen to reside, and Portland is definitely the exception to the rule. So again, to reiterate, don’t hold out on Snowe switching right away.
Even here in NOBAMA northern KY, people are tired of Jim Bunning’s ass and want him gone. Mitch McConnell had a fair amount of trouble last year, and Dan Mongiardo would definitely be able to take down Bunning.
I’m calling a 66 majority, assuming Crist does not run. If he does, I think we’re looking at 65; MO, NH, OH, NC, KY.
One thing to keep in mind is that Daniel Inouye of Hawaii is getting pretty old…and Hawaii has a Republican governor with high approval ratings.
Count Oklahoma out. If we elected Coburn there over Brad Carson in the first place, there’s no crazy right-winger they can’t pull out of the woodwork between now and then that won’t end up winning. Granted, Carson had one major weakness as a candidate in that his personal speaking style and demeanor were of a cold fish variety; but his credentials were impressive, whereas Coburn kept spouting off the weirdest nonsense that nobody else could have believed.
You hear a lot about KS, TX, UT and etc for being crazy conservative, but I guess OK is such a foregone conclusion these days that nobody bothers to even mention them anymore.
The Republicans, led by their apostles of death,i.e. Limbaugh, Hannity, Savage, Coulter, Buchanan, Beck, are heading full speed for the abyss of political oblivion. God grant them a speedy journey to the political graveyard they so richly deserve. They have, indeed, turned the American dream into a nightmare!
Don’t forget, Dodd is almost certain to lose right now. So they might actually only lose 9.
I actually doubt Dodd will lose.
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