I think Vaughn Ververs slightly overstates his case, but he’s right about one thing. Once Al Franken joins the Senate, the Democratic caucus will have sixty members. And that means that the Republicans will no longer have the ability on their own to filibuster bills. Whenever a filibuster is successful it will be because at least one Democrat is willing to buck their own party’s agenda. This is not that important procedurally because there is often a Democrat or two that opposes legislation in the Senate. But it’s important politically because the Democrats will have lost the ability to argue that the Republicans are responsible for obstructing their agenda. In the future, it will be clear that individual Democratic senators are wielding a veto pen.
This will change the pressure points in the Senate. Obama will be less concerned with pleasing Republican moderates than in appeasing Democratic centrists like Blanche Lincoln, Ben Nelson, and Evan Bayh. The main change, however, is the leverage that Obama has over the Democratic centrists. Prior to reaching sixty, senators like Ben Nelson could vote with the Republicans to sustain a filibuster without incurring the blame for the result. The filibuster usually would have been sustained regardless of how Nelson voted. But, now, everyone will know that Nelson (or whichever Democrat filibusters) is solely responsible for frustrating the president’s agenda.
The Democratic centrists just gained leverage at the Republican moderates’ expense, but they also gained a whole lot more pressure to vote with the caucus.
The Republicans gain something from this, too. Since they can’t sustain a filibuster anyway, they’ll be under a lot less pressure to remain united in opposition. They’re basically free to join the Democrats if they want to. Over time, I expect that a general decline in Republican unity will be the biggest result of Specter’s defection. Look first to the voting behavior of the Republicans that are up for reelection like Lisa Murkowski and Richard Burr. But, also look at senators that prize bipartisanship like Richard Lugar, Orrin Hatch, and John McCain. Something is gonna shake loose soon and I think it will be the Republican base’s hold over the caucus, with a resulting loss of unity in opposition.
