Steve Singiser has a top-notch article at Daily Kos that looks at the plight of Jeb Bush. Jeb is currently polling in dead-last place among 2012 Republican presidential aspirants. While Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and Sarah Palin are all polling in the low-20’s, and Newt Gingrich is polling at 13%, Jeb is clocking in at 6%, just below ‘Someone Else.’ Singiser does an excellent analysis of why this is the case and he also details the several ways in which George undermined the political aspirations of his younger brother.
Yet, I’m not sure that Jeb won’t be the 2012 nominee of the Republican Party. Steve hits on Jeb’s many strengths.
On paper, Jeb Bush should be able to absolutely blast this field into political oblivion. He is the former governor of what will, by 2012, be the third largest state in the Union. While serving as governor, his approval ratings were almost uniformly in the high 50s or better. His families have ties to Washington dating back three generations and eight decades. He is, for all of his ideological foibles that would drive progressives mad, one of the more telegenic advocates from the political right-wing. On the stump, he would be at no worse than a draw with the other four named candidates.
And, despite all that, there he is. Not just in fifth place, but in an almost unthinkable position: dead last, in a landslide.
First, let’s consider something about the nature of the Republicans Party. Looking at the historical record, it’s plain that the GOP has a strong tendency to nominate candidates that have either been vice-president or vice-presidential candidates. In 1960, 1968, and 1972, they chose Eisenhower’s veep, Richard Nixon. In 1976, they chose Nixon’s veep, Gerald Ford. In 1988 and 1992 they chose Reagan’s veep, Poppy Bush. And in 1996, they chose Ford’s 1976 running mate, Bob Dole. This doesn’t really have anything specific to do with the role of the vice-president. It’s more an indication of the GOP’s strong sense of hierarchy. George W. Bush won the 2000 nomination on name-recognition alone, despite the fact that his father had been a failed president. McCain won the 2008 nomination on the strength of his second place finish in 2000. As absurd as it might seem, based on precedent, Sarah Palin should be the odds-on favorite to become the Republican nominee in 2012 because, as the vice-presidential pick in 2008, she has first place in their hierarchy.
But, here’s another way of looking at it.
Republican Tickets
1976: Ford/Dole
1980: Reagan/Bush
1984: Reagan/Bush
1988: Bush/Quayle
1992: Bush/Quayle
1996: Dole/Kemp
2000: Bush/Cheney
2004: Bush/Cheney
2008: McCain/Palin
In 1996, Dan Quayle was considered too tarnished to win so the Republicans had to revert back 20 years to find the next person in the hierarchy. In 2008, Cheney did not enter the contest and Kemp was too old so the Republicans had to improvise. They chose the second place finisher from 2000. What this shows is a strong sense of both dynasty and respect of position.
If we just kind of use this as a formula, we can see that the Republicans will be inclined to pick either Sarah Palin or Jeb Bush. Palin could suffer the same fate as Quayle, which would basically hand the nomination by default to Jeb.
It’s true that people have a severe case of Bush fatigue. But unhappiness with the presidency of Poppy Bush didn’t prevent the Republicans from nominating one of his son’s eight years later. And Jeb Bush is a much better politician than George Jr. Moreover, Romney and Huckabee are extremely weak candidates, as we discovered in the 2008 primaries. Unless someone new arrives on the scene, I can’t see Jeb losing to the current cast of candidates. And Republicans simply don’t nominate people who are new on the scene. Even Reagan earned his stripes during his strong 1976 challenge to President Ford.
So, despite it all, I’d still put my money on Jeb. And, honestly, he’d be their strongest candidate.
