Two things have happened recently to drive home the point that the Republican Party is in massive decline. The Democratic Caucus in the U.S. Senate reached sixty members and we saw three potential 2012 GOP presidential careers’ unexpectedly implode. Where are they going from here?
The GOP might regain some momentum by winning the governor’s races this November in either/both New Jersey and Virginia, but their prospects of picking up seats in the 2010 Senate elections look exceedingly bleak. The Democrats have very strong candidates running in Missouri, Ohio, Kentucky, and New Hampshire in what should all be open seats. The Republicans will have to stage upset victories in all four of those seats and find a way to win elections in Delaware, Colorado, or Connecticut to gain any ground. And most of the emerging races are on Republican ground. Texas could become a competitive seat once Kay Bailey Hutchison resigns to run for governor. It remains to be seen if Charlie Crist will prevail in Florida’s closed GOP primary. Sen. Richard Burr of North Carolina is polling terribly and could become vulnerable if the Democrats find a strong challenger. Sen. David Vitter of Louisiana could have difficulty weathering his diaper-wearing visits to the Cat House if Rep. Charlie Melanchon gets in the race.
The Dems have a little housecleaning to do. They will have contentious primaries in Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York. But they should be favored to win all of those races. My best guess is that the Democrats will pick up a net of four to six seats, giving them 64-66 senate seats for the 112th Congress.
The House is another matter. The Dems will probably lose at least a couple of seats. There are only a handful of vulnerable Republicans left in the House, so unless they have a lot of retirements, the odds are that they’ll win more contests than they lose. But, even here, it’s highly doubtful that they Republicans can net even a dozen seats, and that will barely change the dynamics of Congress at all. In fact, the most vulnerable Democrats are already voting with the Republicans half the time anyway.
In short, there does not appear to be any near-term relief coming for the Grand Old Party. And, if they take another beating in 2010, their next obstacle will be the post-census redistricting which will be controlled in many states by the Democrats. A bunch of Republican seats will just get carved out of existence for the 2012 races, and a decade of deep minority status will set in.
Finally, if the party doesn’t show any signs of life through 2010, then it’s likely that no new leaders will emerge to challenge for the presidency. They have no one now, and there is nobody on the horizon. The last time this happened was when Eisenhower failed to recruit an ideological successor and his vice-president lost to Kennedy. The GOP tilted badly to the right and nominated Sen. Barry Goldwater of Arizona in 1964. Goldwater got crushed and the Democrats entered the period of their greatest dominance in the post-war period. We appear to be on a similar trajectory. Which makes this all the funnier.
