The Ranking Member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, Jeff Sessions of Alabama, announced today that there will be no filibuster of Sonia Sotomayor. Of course, demanding a vote on cloture (which is what a filibuster really is) is the prerogative of all 100 senators, so it’s quite possible that a filibuster will still happen. But it won’t be sustained. That means that Sonia Sotomayor will breeze to confirmation, and the only questions will be over how many votes she gets, how much this process has damaged the Republicans among women and Latinos, and how many angry whites have been weaponized by the Glenn Becks of the world.
We’ll get an answer on the first question shortly. Doing a little envelope math, I predict that McCain and Graham will vote for her because they’ve long talked about the need to stop alienating the Latino community. I am sure Mel Martinez of Florida will show a little Caribbean solidarity. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins are probably ‘aye’ votes. I think Richard Lugar will probably give her the thumbs up. Murkowski and Voinovich are definitely potential yeses. In fact, I think somewhere between a third and a half of the Republican caucus will vote to confirm Sotomayor. Make it thirteen to twenty votes for and twenty to twenty-seven votes against.
The Democratic caucus should be unanimous, although Ben Nelson and Bob Casey will be under pressure from pro-life groups to vote against her. So, my prediction is 75 votes to confirm (73 if Kennedy and Byrd are absent) and 25 votes against.
What say you?
