The Hill produces a piece from a familiar genre. It’s the ‘nervous centrist Democrats think Pelosi is too liberal’ genre. In the first midterm of a new presidency, history tells us that the president’s party usually does poorly. So, there is at least one metric out there that should make vulnerable Democrats nervous. Democrats are still doing well in the generic congressional ballot question, especially if you discount the unreliable Rasmussen polling. But, as Chris Bowers recently noted, a narrowing of the Democrats’ advantage on the generic congressional question could be enough to put a good number of Democrats in jeopardy. Bowers’ current calculations put 18 Democrats on the chopping block. It would take a net change of 39 to flip the House of Representatives back to Republican control.
The Obama campaign did an excellent job of boosting turnout, getting 56.8% of eligible voters to the polls. That compares favorably with 2004 (55.3%) and 2000 (51.3%); it was the largest percentage turnout since the 1968 elections split this country into pieces. But incumbents who were swept in by that high turnout could be swept out when the turnout drops back to historic midterms levels: 2006 (37.1%), 2002 (37.0%), 1998 (36.4%).
One thing to note about this analysis so far is that it has very little to do with any specific policies that Nancy Pelosi might be pushing. Regardless of what the Speaker does, there are reasons that freshman and sophomore Democrats should be worried. Anyone who won election with less than about 54% of the vote has to be concerned that too few of their base voters will turn out, or that the Democratic Party will lose too much of their generic edge, meaning that independents in their district could fail to make up for a Republican registration advantage.
Now, if we go back to 1994 (the last time the GOP made sweeping gains in House elections) we quickly realize that there were major issues that drove the Gingrich wave. Centrist Democrats were destroyed by the NRA’s campaign against the Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act and the Federal Assault Weapons Ban. They were put on the defensive by the president’s effort to allow gays in the military. Their base was demoralized by the failure to enact health care reform and the success in enacting NAFTA. We may see some level of base demoralization right now, but the vapidity of the Tea Party Movement shows that there are no real issues that are making Democrats vulnerable. The closest thing we have to that now is the vote the House took last summer on Cap & Trade.
Democratic members point most to Pelosi’s handling of the climate change measure. Pelosi worked the floor relentlessly to pass the fast- tracked bill, persuading a number of worried centrists to vote for it just before the Independence Day holiday. Some Democratic centrists have regretted backing that bill.
What irks them most is the sense that the Senate won’t pass anything so strong, if it passes anything at all. So they expect to get beaten up for voting on a bill that will never become law.
“What bothers me is I was put in that position unnecessarily,” said one vulnerable lawmaker.
This is a legitimate criticism that may be playing out again with the health care bill. Vulnerable politicians don’t like to take controversial votes on things that won’t become law. It opens them up for criticism that they are on the liberal side of the congressional divide. But it’s hard to identify too many members who are going to take much of a beating over efforts to address climate change. Compared to taking people’s guns away, the issue doesn’t have much resonance.
The Obama administration has been careful to slow-walk their promises on gay rights and to do nothing on guns (which breaks no promises anyway) until after they have completed their major agenda items for the year. That may be frustrating to some, but it improves their chances of getting the votes of nervous Democrats for health care reform and climate change legislation.
If the Democrats pass health care reform, they will assure that 2010 looks nothing like 1994. If health care reform doesn’t pass, it’s inevitable that 2010 will look a lot like 1994, even without the controversies on trade, gays, and guns.
And, regardless of what happens in Washington, the first Democrats to lose are going to be the most conservative Democrats. They’ll do better if the Democratic base is happy and the Dems maintain a substantial generic ballot advantage. Compromising with Republicans isn’t going to achieve either of those goals.
