The Senate Finance Committee (SFC) has twenty-three members: 13 Democrats and 10 Republicans. If the Republicans remain united in opposition to the health care bill, the Democrats can afford no more than one vote against it. If Olympia Snowe (R-ME) votes for the bill, the Democrats can afford two defections. Both Ron Wyden (D-OR) and Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) are very unhappy with the bill and have threatened to vote ‘nay.’
According to reporting at The Hill, Democratic senators are walking on eggshells around Rockefeller.
“Rockefeller is so high on the food chain that there aren’t many people here that can talk to him about his vote. The president’s about the only one who can,” said a Democratic senator who requested anonymity because he felt uncomfortable discussing a fellow senator’s vote.
It doesn’t help that the debate over health care has Rockefeller in a downright ornery mood. He is technically the chairman of the Finance Subcommittee on Health Care, but, despite that, Baucus took over the crafting of the legislation and shut him out of the Gang of Six negotiations. From Baucus’s point of view, he had to find a bill that had the support of the more conservative members of his committee (Conrad, Lincoln, Bill Nelson, Carper, Snowe) and courting Rockefeller wasn’t going to facilitate that process. The problem now is that Rockefeller’s feelings are hurt. He probably correctly considers himself the foremost expect on health policy in the Senate, and his input has been largely discounted and discarded. Beyond that, he simply hates the Finance Bill, as most/all liberals do.
That’s the starting point, but the dimensional chess goes deeper. Setting aside Wyden’s displeasure for a moment, there is a careful dance going on between Rockefeller and Snowe.
One [Democratic] aide said that a no vote from Snowe would make it more difficult for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) to include provisions she favors in the bill he puts on the floor. One such provision would set up a government insurance program that would only go into effect if private insurance companies failed to meet certain benchmarks for providing affordable, quality care.
“The public option with a trigger would be a compelling thing to put in the merged bill if the Finance bill has the endorsement of Snowe,” said the aide. “When progressives howl, you can point to Snowe’s support.”
But…not so easily if Rockefeller votes no:
Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) said a no vote from Rockefeller would send a strong signal that Democratic leaders cannot take liberal support for granted.
Baucus has gained leverage with Reid by arguing that certain policy proposals favored by liberals, such as the public option, would not have enough votes to pass the Senate. Rockefeller’s opposition could balance that argument by allowing liberal advocates to claim that a healthcare package closely resembling the Baucus bill could face significant opposition from Democratic liberals.
“It would send a signal to pay attention to the left,” said Whitehouse.
This tension between the center and the left has defined the whole SFC process from the beginning. But the strategy behind Rockefeller and Snowe’s votes is about positioning for the next steps in the process. I’ve said repeatedly that Republican senators cannot expect to maintain any relevance on policy if they vote no on everything that comes out of their committees. Baucus has courted Snowe all year, and the Finance bill contains many provisions aimed at winning her support. If she votes against it, it will not only make it harder for Reid to include those concessions in the final bill, but it will make it harder for Snowe to win concessions in the future. She has a strong incentive to vote for the SFC bill.
But Rockefeller has just as strong an incentive to vote against it. A ‘nay’ vote would not only send a message that liberals are opposed to the SFC bill, but it would send a message to Baucus not to shut him out of negotiations on future bills.
When the time comes for a vote, the Democrats will vote before the Republicans. Rockefeller, who is second in seniority, will vote first (because the chairman votes last), and will not have the benefit of knowing what Snowe or his colleagues are going to do.
I don’t think he wants to vote yes if Snowe is going to vote yes.
