The problem with trying to ram home a public option at Stage Two is that it can’t be done unless all 60 Democrats vote for cloture to start debate and to finish debate and vote. With Lieberman promising to filibuster any bill that contains a public option, there’s only downside to debating it for weeks and then losing. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.
Far smarter would have been to let the Senate debate a bill without a public option, defeat the amendment for installing it, and then push for the a watered down House version in the Conference Committee. If the Senate still refused to vote for it then, it would be a whole lot easier to make the case for a public option in budget reconciliation. That was the original plan. If Obama seriously let himself be convinced of Harry Reid’s whip count, he screwed this up.
If the problem is limited to Lieberman (and I don’t think it is) then the solution is simple. He should lose his committee chairs in the next Congress. But that won’t solve anything if the problem isn’t limited to Lieberman.
The only upside I can see is that budget reconciliation just became more likely than a lousy bill in regular order. But, that hardly matters because a lousy bill in budget reconciliation just became infinitely more likely than it would have been had Reid not tried and failed to put the public option in the base bill at Stage Two.
I say, let them filibuster. But make them really do it – stand on their feet – never stop talking, etc.
Let them embarrass themselves in front of a nation in which the majority is wondering why their representatives aren’t really representing them.
Then do it in the budget reconciliation, if necessary. But let them look bad, first. And then maybe, finally, we can get rid of Lieberman, or at least make clear to Connecticut he is not a replacement for a REAL Democrat.
Yep, make Lieberman stand up there alone of his caucus and defy them.
Force him to do it.
Curious though, if they just hold the vote when 2 Repubs are absent they only need 59, right? Or does that only hold for quorums?
Exactly. Let Lieberman and the Repubs spew. It’ll make great TV.
I don’t really find today any more surprising than yesterday, i.e. Reid declaring he’d insert the PO into the Senate bill and Lieberman saying he won’t go along. I think you’ve been right that the White House didn’t want to bring the PO into the Senate discussion until later, and I think they’ve seen it this way since the spring.
But several things bug me: could Reid really be this dumb? I have a hard time believing it even though he is kind of a dumbass (he fouled up a vote count just last week bigtime). If he’s not, then what’s going on? Does he have something else up his sleeve?
I have to say, Lieberman is an excellent candidate for focusing progressive anger and action and bringing blistering pressure on Congress and the White House. I hate the man with such a passion that I’m all fired up and ready to go. The question is, is there anywhere else but reconciliation, which I think was the assumption made by Obama’s team in the first place? My hope is that this can be made to backfire and lead to a far more progressive bill than could have been had otherwise. This should be interesting.
I think he really is that dumb, myself.
Lieberman should lose his committee chairmanships regardless. If he won’t vote for cloture on a major bill with his ostensible party, than he should be a backbencher in the party of his choosing. He will likely be toast in 2012; might as well treat him like dirt in 2009.
Booman, aren’t there are two possibilities?
Your analysis is predicated on possibility 1. But isn’t 2 a likely scenario?
My problem with BooMan’s analysis is that he is presuming that an asshole Senator who would filibuster now (like Lieberman) would not do so after the conference committee process.
I remember the stimulus debate just as well as anyone. I remember Snowe, Collins and Nelson dictating the terms of the stimulus and threatening to take their ball and go home if it was changed too much.
So even in BooMan’s scenario where we pass a trigger public option in the Senate and try to fix it in conference, we would still be right where we are now. Leaks that Reid & Obama are putting an opt-out public option into the bill, followed by some ass like Lieberman saying he would filibuster such a bill.
The problem is not the process or the order in which things are being done. The problem is getting these 60 Dems to fall in line. If you eliminate the public option or put a trigger on it, you lose 3 or more liberals (Burris, Rockefeller, Feingold). If you have the opt-out, you MIGHT lose Lieberman, Lincoln, Nelson. But if you are going to pressure somebody, you should pressure the people who are out of step with 80% of the caucus and 60% of the public. The Conservadem resistance has to be broken at some point. If we can’t break it now, it wouldn’t be any easier after the conference committee.
I also don’t believe that momentum towards reconciliation matters, except to cable news talking heads. If a filibuster is successful, either now or later, move to reconciliation. The GOP will be completely opposed, so it’s easy to sell it as a response to obstructionism.
The key here is Obama, and when he will start fighting and putting pressure on these wavering Senators.
the point is to make sure the public option is never defeated prior to the one vote in which it succeeds. You get one bite at an apple like this, not two or three.
Giordano thinks Lieberman just wants attention: http://narcosphere.narconews.com/thefield/
I tend to agree. Lieberman never really stood up for anything. He likes tweaking people. Gives him some weird sense of control. In the end, he’ll make the safe bet. Can’t see him giving up all his perks for nothing in return. Call his bluff and watch him fold.
I still don’t understand why the WH hasn’t become more involved. Has Obama called any of these Senators to see where they stand or to put pressure on them? I read on Americablog that he hasn’t, which I find to be insane.
At the very least, last week Obama could have picked up the phone and called a few folks to see where they stand. Reid tells them he has 60, but Reid hasn’t been very good at getting things done so why not verify it and call up some people. “Hey Evan, it’s Barack. You aren’t going to nuke my top priority are you?” “Hey Joe, how’s Hadassah? So I just want to make sure you will not force us into reconciliation.”
It would take 30 minutes of Obama’s time to make those calls. So I just don’t understand how the WH could ever be caught flat-footed on this. Hell, they should have been laying the groundwork for this push for months now.
I think Reid is doing the right thing, but he can’t do it alone. Reid can’t force Lieberman’s hand, but Obama could. And so far I’m not seeing much evidence that Obama is lifting a finger on what should be his highest priority of the year.
Why would you see evidence that Obama has done those things?
There seems to be plenty of public fandango, the private stuff we can only guess at. At this time, if I were prez, I’d want the bickering to belong to the senate.
We have heard from multiple Congressional sources that Obama hasn’t been making these phone calls or putting pressure on Senators. When directly asked, the Senators say that Obama hasn’t been putting any pressure on them.
In addition, all of these news stories talk about the WH wondering if Reid has the votes or not. Obama and Biden were in the Senate themselves, surely they can get on the phone and find out what’s happening without having to trust Reid.
Maybe all of these news stories are wrong and Obama is in Lieberman’s ear every night. I hope so. But that’s not what anyone is reporting.
I would expect a lot of pressure to be brought to bear on Lieberman — from his constituents and also from inside the beltway. In the end, I think he folds like a lawn chair.
I really don’t think Reid could be talked out of it. An anonymous aide said it was dangerous to do it this way. The Netroots would have had a hissy fit if it was handled any other way because they could care less about any reform. They just want a PO to prove how powerful they are. Sorta like telling people with pre-existing conditions to go to hell. Any type of bill would be better than none for the poor and the uninsured.
Also, a public option-less bill could not get 60 votes. It would gain Lieberman and lose Burris, Rockefeller, Feingold.
Now, you can say that the minds of these Senators could be changed in order to move the process forward. But why can’t the same be said for Lieberman, who owes Obama more than anyone else in DC?
What little we know about Burris is that he can be bought. Rockefeller and Feingold are not going to have their legacies be tied to the permanent defeat of health care reform.
Durbin’s comments hinted that progressive senators were threatening to vote against the bill if Reid didn’t include a public option at this stage. I suspect that progressive and centrist senators are playing chicken with threats about cloture, and that the centrists are now screaming because they fear a real loss of power and influence if they lose this fight. I also suspect that the centrists never planned to let the WH add a public option in conference.
the centrists will block the PO unless the pressure is overwhelming. that’s why they shouldn’t have tried it this early.
Then I would think that if the WH signed off on Reid’s changed game plan, they think they can ramp up the pressure to “overwhelming” at stage two.
Yesterday it was “Kudos”; today it’s “Idiots”. You and every other self-described progressive were patting Harry Reid and yourselves on the back for an obvious political stunt that “progressives” were too damn delusional to see through. That’s what happens when a moral cause–extending health care benefits to the tens of millions of uninsured–gets bastardized by a political agenda: winning the war between liberalism and conservatism.
You’re obviously embarrassed and well you should be. You especially because you’ve been the lone voice of reason in the progressive bloghesphere and should have seen this stunt coming from a mile away. Your otherwise clear-eyed and fact based analysis of the mechanics of health care reform legislation was clouded yesterday by the shadow of Harry Reid in the balloon stunt designed to make progressives think they had won something when they hadn’t won a damn thing.
“If Obama seriously let himself be convinced of Harry Reid’s whip count, he screwed this up.” The President knew Harry didn’t have the votes, which is why he pointedly said to him, “I hope you know what you’re doing.” Clearly, the President was not convinced of Reid’s whip count. But he knew he couldn’t stop him. Reid’s like a trapped animal trying to gnaw his foot out of a trap, the trap being sinking re-election prospects. They couldn’t stop him, but I’m sure they directed him to be more measured and nuanced about the trigger and Senator Snowe. While Reid was pushing Snowe under the bus, neither he nor “progressives” noticed Lieberman jumping in the driver’s seat.
Unlike most “progressives”, I trust my President, and I have no doubt that while Reid was giving his faux press conference yesterday the President was on the line with Senator Snowe and conservative Dems telling them to just hang tight while this blows up in Harry’s face and they can get back to business.
Just to be clear, I’m not suggesting that Booman doesn’t trust the President. Clearly that’s not the case. I just think Reid’s announcement yesterday demanded a healthy dose of his skepticism.
If Obama were actually on the phone telling Snowe and Conservadems to hold tight while Reid goes down in flames, that would be an act of treason against health care reform.
Why? Because Snowe and those Conservadems are the ones with the power to make Reid fail. If they simply didn’t filibuster, Reid would win and health reform would have great momentum.
I just have a hard time believing that Obama would help kill the public option one week and then think he can easily resurrect it the next. Once these Conservadems wield their power, they don’t like to give it up. They would threaten to filibuster any final bill with a public option, knowing how desperate Obama is to pass anything.
“If Obama were actually on the phone telling Snowe and Conservadems to hold tight while Reid goes down in flames, that would be an act of treason against health care reform.” Only if you believe health care reform is synonymous with an up front public option. Conservadems will follow Snowe on the trigger.
And what does the trigger trigger if it doesn’t trigger a public option.
Are they going to put a trigger on restrictions against denial of pre-existing conditions, rescissions, and annual and lifetime caps?
You can’t say that you are against a government insurance plan and then say you want to trigger it and have a logical argument for compromise.
Ahem. I wasn’t. I repeatedly said it all seemed too easy, and that I didn’t trust Reid because of that.
what I said yesterday was that it was great if Reid has the votes and stupid otherwise. Nothing has changed.
Surely you knew yesterday that Lieberman would do his usual grandstanding. If nothing has changed, why the gloom attack?
Because they shouldn’t have done this if Lieberman was going to spike it.
All I can say is Lieberman better keep his sorry ass on his side of the Potomac, because he’ll be damned glad he’s got a public option if I cross paths with him.
Whatever happen to passing Health care reform with a simple majority. Maybe Obama should go give “joe” a Kiss, it worked for W.
Isn’t this what that idiot and betrayer Obama was trying to AVOID, with his strategy for ending up with a public option on his desk?
Gosh, he’s just so stupid.
(facepalm)
I don’t see that yet more bullshit from Lieberman justifies this defeatism. Do you really think he’s going to stand alone as the one who killed healthcare?
What would he get out of putting himself in that position? He’d kill any chance of reelection or any other political power. He’d almost certainly be kicked out of the Dem caucus and all the perks that go with it. Yeah, he’d make points with his insuranceco johns, but not significantly more than if he pleaded that he’d be of little use to them after paying the price for filibustering — either in Congress or as a lobbyist. And then he could vote against the bill at the end and be forgiven. He’s certainly crafty enough to see what will be best for the only person who matters in this world.
I’ll just repeat what I said over at DK: Poor Lieberman is buffeted between his two prime directives: being a coward and being a whore. I think Coward will win in the end when he faces the prospect of standing alone to block a healthcare reform vote. All his concern trolling about the deficit, etc. is just his way of extorting a bigger tip on the nightstand.
I agree with you, Dave. Lieberman gets his 15 minutes in the spotlight. Were he a real human being, rather than some odd facsimile, he would feel shame and not want this kind of attention. But it appears that, for Joe, it’s just about attention — period!
If he can make a hemorrhoid of himself, he will. For as long as he can get away with. But in the end, he’ll fold because he has no substance and no gravitas whatsoever.
And if I’m wrong, I hope Obama has the guts to go reconciliation and punk Lieberman right out of the caucus. No chairmanship, no seat at the table, no fund raising, no nothin’!
Isn’t Reid the same guy who thought he had 27 GOP votes for a bill just to have the GOP vote unanimously against him? I’d be wary of any vote count that he guarantees…
from subtle kabuki to a three ring circus that barnum and bailey would be proud of in < 24 hrs.
who said politics wasn’t fun?
For the life of me, I don’t see why pushing a trigger through the Senate and then going for a public option when reconciling the bill with the House is/was more likely to result in a public option in the final legislation than trying for one now in the Senate and perhaps losing in that initial vote.
I don’t see why the public option could not then still be added when reconciling the Senate bill with the house. None of this makes sense to me.
Rather, I think we have a shot at getting the public option through the Senate, so we go for it. If it fails, we try again later when reconciling with the House.
You don’t see how having the whole bill stall at the very end because it has a public option might hurt the chances to get to it in Conference? The bill has to PASS the Senate in order to get to conference.
And if they get cloture to start debate, but not to end it, they’re doubly fucked. If they can’t start, at least Reid can pull it back and offer a different bill.
If you are smart, you don’t allow debate on stuff you need and let it be defeated, hoping to put it back in anyway. You don’t debate it until you have the momentum to pass it. It’s not rocket science.
Losing an amendment on a 60 vote threshold doesn’t kill momentum like the whole bill dying, or the whole bill having to be withdrawn.
I don’t see why the loss of committee chairs has to be limited to Lieberman. What Reid would have to do is make the threat openly before calling the cloture vote. Then the Senators will have clearly chosen their fate. He should make it covertly before he makes it overtly, of course, to avoid humiliating the defectors if possible. Say it quietly and try to get public statements of support from defectors. Then say it publicly after all or nearly all defectors have fallen in line. This way the defectors can pretend that it wasn’t the threat that swayed them, and Reid can treat the threat merely as a backup formality. I can see it would be a problem with a dozen or so defectors, but we seem to be talking 3 or 4 at most.
is whether Obama pressures the defectors. He may have had misgivings about this strategy, but he gave his OK. I don’t see any way Lieberman keeps his gavel unless Obama defends him again, and that goes for other defectors too. Reid is fighting for his life. Whether it was better now or later, the PO is on the table now with Obama’s approval. Will Obama fight for it, or will he be interested in having been “right”?
Yeah, you’re probably right. He could still hold back and let it fail on the opening cloture vote, but Lieberman says he’ll grant that vote. He can’t let debate start if he can’t get it to stop. But if Reid has to withdraw the bill, the chances of getting the PO back later are pretty much gone. So, having given Reid permission to do this, he has to fight for it. Problem is, no one I know ever thought they could get the PO thru the senate on the first pass.
I don’t see the basis for believing that a defeat at this junction has to be final. I do think the media will so treat it, but there is no formal reason that has to be true, so it’s largely a question of how hard a ball are Obama, Reid, and the caucus prepared to play. Being filibustered provides a good excuse for reconciliation from what I can see, and there is no point is worrying about making the Republicans angry. There is nothing that can separate Republicans and rage – that was what Clinton needed to learn.