Here is something for David Brooks to think about. Let’s say that we poll ten voters. Four are registered Democrats, three are registered Republicans, and three are registered independents. We ask them what they think about abortion rights. Imagine that 3 of the 4 Democrats support abortion rights, but none of the Republicans and only one of the independents do. You’d find that 75% of Democrats, and 0% of Republicans and 33% of independents support abortion rights. But, now, imagine you come back a year later and poll them again. Their opinions on abortion rights haven’t changed, but one of the Republicans has become fed up with the party and re-registered as an independent.
Your new results? Democrats and Republicans still show the same level of support for abortion rights, but now only 25% of independents do. Clearly, the country has moved to the right on this issue.
However, the sample’s opinion hasn’t changed at all. What’s changed is that the independent sample has become more conservative while the other samples have remained unchanged. While 33% used to identify as Republicans, now only 20% do. And, while 33% used to indentify as independents, now 40% do.
This is a simple example, but it reflects what has been happening in this country over the past couple of years. Common sense should tell you that a mass movement of voters away from the Republican Party towards an independent self-identification is a movement to the left. But, you won’t see that movement on every issue. A lot of voters still hold the same opinions on policy and social issues that they used to, but their opinion of the GOP has deteriorated. They haven’t become Democrats, but they have become incrementally more likely to vote for them. The result is that the pool of independents now expresses more conservative opinions and even votes just a little bit more often for the Republicans, but the newly independent voters in the pool are actually voting just a little bit more often for the Democrats than they used to (even as, overall, they still favor the GOP).
It looks like the independents are moving to the right, but, on the level of individual voters, they are actually moving ever so slightly to the left.
