You have probably heard by now that yesterday afternoon Harry Reid invited Ben Nelson, Mary Landrieu, and Blanche Lincoln to a meeting in his office. From what I can divine, Reid likes to use subtlety more than a heavy hand.
In response to a question from TPMDC Nelson told reporters that, at a meeting this afternoon with Sens. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) and Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), Reid “talked about process, procedure, discussion about reconciliation and a whole host of issues of that sort.”
“Nobody’s really jumping up and down to push for reconciliation,” Nelson said, “he’s not threatening that, but anybody can conclude that if you don’t move something on to the floor, that is one of the possibilities.”
Rather than make any threats, it sounds like Reid just pointed out that the centrists wouldn’t kill reform by denying him procedural votes; they’d merely force him to use the budget reconciliation process. Presumably, this was accompanied by certain promises. For Nelson, Reid was willing to strip out a provision that would eliminate the insurance companies’ anti-trust exemption. For Landrieu, there were provisions to assist small businesses (Landrieu chairs the Small Business Committee) and maybe more money for Katrina recovery. Blanche Lincoln probably won some concessions, too. Those concessions would be off the table if these senators denied Reid their support for procedural votes and forced him to use reconciliation.
This is the arm-twisting and sausage-making of passing major legislation. And it won’t be easy:
Republicans, who have criticized the Democrats’ initiative as a step toward government control of the healthcare system, are already planning a series of delaying tactics, including forcing the entire bill to be read aloud on the Senate floor.
“It’s going to be a holy war,” Sen. Orrin Hatch (R- Utah) said Wednesday evening.
Whether it is Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) saying that this bill will be Obama’s Waterloo or Hatch calling for jihad, it’s clear that the Republicans want to leave some blood on the floor of the Senate. The big question is whether any member of the Senate Democratic Caucus wants to join the GOP in the bloodletting.
So, what happens now?
Tomorrow, Reid will file for cloture on the motion to proceed, which will set off 30 hours of debate before the cloture vote itself is held, likely on Saturday. That could set off yet another delay before the motion to proceed is actually passed, which could take until Monday. If that happens, the debate on the bill–including a reading of its 2000+ pages, won’t likely begin in earnest until after Thanksgiving. Got that all? Good.
It might be possible for the Senate to pass a bill before Christmas, but they’ll probably have to wait until after the New Year to get the bill reconciled with the House version and send something to the president’s desk.
Will Reid have 60 votes on Saturday? I think he will. Will he have 60 votes to end debate and pass the bill? It’s way too early to tell.
