A house divided against itself cannot stand, especially in the face of a unified enemy. The narrative unfolding in Washington, which is backed by some statistics, is that the Democratic coalition is coming apart and suffering from demoralization. Here’s a sample of headlines from today’s newspapers.
Liberals warn Obama that base may skip midterm elections
Midterm backlash may await Speaker Pelosi over Afghanistan troop surge
As U.S. Expands Role Overseas, Survey Finds Isolationism on the Rise
The performance of Republicans in Washington so far this year has been bizarre, obstructive, dishonest, relentlessly negative, and strangely effective. While a fundraising advantage hasn’t materialized for the GOP, they have beaten the Democrats severely in the candidate recruitment department. Their surprising unity of opposition and stubborn willingness to use procedure to slow legislative progress has forced a lot of compromise and led to frustration among the Democratic base.
None of this has made congressional Republicans or their leaders popular. They are about as unpopular as it is possible to be. In the latest Research 2000 weekly tracking poll, we see the following approve/disapprove ratings.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell 15/68
House Minority Leader John Boehner 13/66
Congressional Republicans 14/70
Republican Party 24/66
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid 31/59
Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi 41/51
Congressional Democrats 41/54
Democratic Party 43/52
Granted that some other pollsters (particularly the consistent outlier, Rasmussen) find narrower results, it’s clear that the Republicans are not making themselves popular with their tactics. But they are satisfying the desires of their base while causing consternation among Democrats who want to see more legislation passed on more Democratic terms. The result is easily seen here:
A new poll commissioned by Daily Kos, a prominent liberal blog, found that the Democratic base has lost a lot of enthusiasm since the 2008 election.
The survey by Research 2000 found that only 56 percent of Democratic respondents said they would definitely or probably vote in the 2010 congressional elections, compared to 40 percent who said they would definitely or likely not vote. Republican voters were much more enthusiastic by comparison, posting an 81 percent to 14 percent split.
Republican obstruction and united opposition has delayed appointments, prevented the closure of Guantanamo, intimidated Obama into backing down on some promises related to transparency and disclosure of classified information, slowed and weakened the passage of health care, and forced several items to be pushed off to next year. In refusing to offer any bipartisan cover for the most controversial legislation, the Republicans have made Democratic centrists nervous and uncooperative in many areas.
Because the Republicans are pursuing a wholly negative and rejectionist strategy, they would be setting themselves up for a disaster at the polls if next year were a presidential year with high turnout. But next year is a midterm election, where turnout is typically low and outcomes are decided by the relative strength of the party bases more than by the battle to win over independent voters. Their success at recruitment is important because the Democrats have come close to maxing out how many seats they can realistically win. That the Democrats are still more popular than the Republicans is deceptive because to maintain such large majorities, the Democrats have to be much more popular. The Democrats can win many more votes in the midterms and still lose quite a lot of seats.
It’s somewhat sickening to realize that this crazy death panel teabagging craziness is actually working, but it is. And the only way to combat it is to pass more legislation on Democratic terms. As a matter of survival, the Senate Democrats should consider modifying the Senate rules in order to pass more legislation, make more appointments, and show some results to the Democratic base.
At present, they are being divided and their troops demoralized. The decision to escalate in Afghanistan just made the problem much worse.
