I honestly don’t know how the Senate can fit immigration reform into their schedule for this year, but they appear willing to try. After the Senate finishes up health care reform, they’ll move to work on the $155 billion jobs bill that the House passed before they recessed for the holidays. In February, the White House will unveil their budget for the year, and it is expected to somehow begin to address the soaring budget deficit. It won’t be an easy ride for congressional appropriators or the budget committees. Then there is work to be done on the financial/banking reforms. The House passed their version in December, and the Senate Banking Committee is still in the negotiating phase. And the toughest issue of all is the climate legislation. Adding immigration reform to this schedule seems optimistic. I can’t see it happening before the August recess, and then we’ll be right into the congressional midterm elections.
In a general sense, immigration is a bad issue for the Republicans because they and their base really can’t help themselves and they alienate racial minorities and people who recoil from overt and veiled messages of race-based hate. The issue also demoralizes their base because the Republicans serve cheap labor before all else. But what is true in a general sense does not necessarily carry on a district by district basis. Any kind of ‘amnesty’ program, as opponents like to call it, is going to be a very difficult vote for a lot of Democrats in conservative (i.e., overwhelmingly white) districts, particularly in the South. Having such a debate in Congress in the immediate months before an election is bound to cause a lot of incumbents to lose. That’s the main reason I wouldn’t expect them to debate immigration in the latter half of this year. But, that looks like what the White House is promising to do.
