There were four big announcements over the last two days. U.S. Senators Byron Dorgan and Chris Dodd both announced that they will not be seeking reelection. Bill Ritter, the governor of Colorado, did the same. And John Cherry, the Lieutenant Governor of Michigan, announced that he is dropping his bid to replace Jennifer Granholm as the governor of the Mitten State. Cumulatively, especially on the heels of the Parker Griffith party-switch, this leads to the meta-narrative that the Democrats are dropping like flies. That narrative might be a bit of hyperbole, but these announcements are definitely a canary in coal mine.
They follow retirement announcements from several conservative members of the Democratic caucus. It’s becoming clear that there is internal polling data circulating among Democrats on the Hill that shows that many of them are in bad shape. But, if the accompanying retirements of Republicans Henry Brown and George Radanovich are any indication, the phenomenon may not be as partisan as it is anti-incumbent.
The signs are decidedly mixed for predicting what will happen in November. Usually, the outcome of congressional elections are determined well ahead of election day and can be predicted by looking at a combination of recruitments, retirements, fundraising, and polling. The Republicans are beating the pants off the Democrats in recruitments and have an edge in retirements (that matter). But the Democrats are crushing the Republicans in fundraising and hold a slight edge in the polls (if you discount partisan Rasmussen polls). On balance, I’d rather be the Republicans right now because the pendulum is definitely swinging their way and fielding a strong slate of candidates is more important than having a money advantage (as the outcome of the 2006 midterms showed).
The polling data indicates that the Democrats are still more popular than the Republicans, but not enough more popular to retain the 60-40 advantage they currently enjoy in both houses of Congress. Democrats running in districts that went for McCain, or only marginally went for Obama, are in trouble. The voters are looking to punish someone for the high rate of unemployment, and there are going to be a bunch of shocking upsets in both parties if the mood doesn’t change before November.
The Democrats have ten months to improve the mood of the electorate, but the window on candidate retention and recruitment is rapidly closing. And the Democrats need to put more Republicans on the defensive. The filing date closed for federal offices in Texas yesterday and the Democrats left seven Republican-held house seats uncontested. That is no good. If the mood of the country is indeed more anti-incumbent than anti-Democratic (and the polls definitely indicate that that is the case) then the Democrats need to be more aggressive in fielding long-shot candidates. We should not be seeing things like this.
It’s probably spitting against the wind, but progressives need to get their heads out of their asses and recognize that we’re at real risk of seeing Obama’s third and fourth year get hijacked and put at the mercy of a U.S. Senate where we have less than sixty votes and a U.S. House where we have only a nominal majority. And the Obama administration needs to stop dicking around and start giving the progressive base some things to celebrate and motivate them for the field work that needs to be done. But, most of all, DSCC chair Bob Menendez and DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen need to expand the field and get aggressive. Playing strictly defense in this atmosphere is a terrible idea.
Big picture, people. Big picture.
