Who will win the Massachusetts special election tomorrow? What will the dominant accompanying narrative be? And how will the Democrats respond?
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BooMan
Martin Longman a contributing editor at the Washington Monthly. He is also the founder of Booman Tribune and Progress Pond. He has a degree in philosophy from Western Michigan University.
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Coakley squeaks by, the narrative is obviously going to be that Democrats lost no matter what happens (every piece of news is good for Republicans), and Democrats won’t respond.
I just hope that the narrative isn’t “Democrats have obviously moved too far to the left, so far to the left that even liberal God-hating homo-loving Taxachussetts almost elected a Republican!”
I have a feeling that’s going to be the narrative, though. At least on Fox News, especially on Sean Hannity.
She’s not gonna win. That foolish thing about Curt Schilling being a Yankee fan sunk an already bad candidate. Red Sox Nation…which in my opinion is a largely non-political group… will come out of the house just to vote her down.
Watch.
AG
Well, if you’re Chris Cilizza or any other Villager, the answer to your question are, respectively:
I have no guarantee the declared winner will be the actual winner. But both companies are Republican outposts. So if Coakley wins, I’ll assume it was fair. If she loses, I’ll always wonder if electronic voting did her in.
Yet another reason to provide ACCOUNTABLE paper ballots that are audited after the fact to confirm the legitimacy of the election process.
That’s interesting. I live in NY and wasn’t aware that any NYers had yet used electronic voting machines. We used the old mechanical lever machines this past November, still noncompliant with HAVA.
There are some test programs underway using electronic voting in some districts in NY. I don’t remember which. I looked into this a while back.
And lever machines are easily hackable and the results entirely inauditable.
it is overpowering evidence that Obama has lost the independent voters who put him in the White House. Brown will be elected not by Republicans but by Independents and Democrats who think Obama is failing to lead on both economic and foreign policy issues.
No, I think it’s overpowering evidence that the “rural” Democrat style GOTV is a dying strategy. She’s running her campaign exactly like Deeds; not on policy, but where she focuses her resources. Deeds tried doing what Warner did: focusing on the western regions of the state, and winning significantly in Virginia Beach/Norfolk/Hampton areas.
Rather than focusing on urban areas, she went to Plymouth, Worcester and Norfolk. With Massachusetts, this is horrible strategy. She should have poured a lot more in the urban areas like Boston. If you win Boston with at least 50% with decent turn out, it’s hard to imagine how you’ll lose a state-wide election. You’d have to lose other areas by like 20 or so points, and break even in others (break even in areas that are pretty damn liberal and lose by 20 or so points in those suburban areas).
This is why Capuano was a much better option.
is a stretch. With the future of the President’s entire agenda at stake there should be no need for a Democrat to pour money into any area of Massachusetts. Democrats should flock to the polls with no other incentive whatsoever. The apathy comes from Obama’s lack of leadership on the issues which matter most to the voters. Coakley could put as many ads on TV as she wanted and that fact would not change.
How do you know the vote will be counted accurately?
You simply can’t, when programmers are in control. Take it from this programmer!
for the polling in your philosophy? I understand that the last Democratic internal poll has Coakley by 1 point. All the other polls are either similar or have Brown in the lead. Do you think all those polls are “programmed”?
“And how will the Democrats respond?”
By forming a circle, blaming each other, but mostly blaming Obama. All fail can be traced directly to him.
I can’t wait…
Yup.
AG
There will be a recount called for, this is just too close for either side to give in foolishly/gracefully.
During the recount, work on the Health Care Bill will go forward and maybe even squeek in to make itself over to Obama’s desk.
If Brown is certified the winner Snowe & Collins are set to become senators with the most clout ever leveraged in our lifetimes.
You can’t get a meaningful recount when you run the vote electronically. The digital record will come out the same as it did the first time.
My heart tells me Coakley pulls it out with a bit of room to spare.
However, to me the bigger story is this: while the MSM will be all over this and call it a loss whether she loses or not, I’m sitting back and looking at this as a net positive for Dems. Why? The mood has shifted palpably over the past 5 days among Democrats on the web and on the ground. There is fear, yes, but it has focused everyone. There are still those that are doing nothing but take potshots at Obama’s epic failure in every way imaginable, but those voices are being shoved aside by a far greater number of highly motivated people who are, for many of them, seeing the big picture clearly for the first time. All of a sudden, more people seem to appreciate the value of passing a flawed bill. Even better, there is talk about alternative plans like passing the Senate bill and then pushing fixes for its major flaws through reconciliation.
In other words, people have been shaken out of their stupor. They’ve had a mission this week with action to be taken. They’ve got a common purpose that was being obscured by all the whining and handwringing. It feels like Democrats are coming together a bit, and it feels good.
“There is fear, yes, but it has focused everyone. There are still those that are doing nothing but take potshots at Obama’s epic failure in every way imaginable, but those voices are being shoved aside by a far greater number of highly motivated people who are, for many of them, seeing the big picture clearly for the first time.”
Can you provide an example, Bill?
Speaking to friends in Massachusetts, the volume of calls they’ve received, the explosion of awareness in recent days about the closeness of the race.
Speaking to friends in Texas, the number of calls THEY’VE placed to Mass.
KOS diaries, predominantly talking about action rather than bitching.
My e-mail inbox, with messages from all sorts of organizations (including FDL) imploring GOTV action.
Dukakis hasn’t been out campaigning—surely a plus.
Doom. My prediction is doom.
Brown will win by 3-5 points. Democrats (and the media) will behave as if the world is falling apart.
Somehow, a version of the health care reform bill will pass. Pelosi et al will seriously entertain all sorts of procedures to speed up the process enough to get a vote before Brown takes office, but will fail.
Senate version of HCR may pass as is.
Whatever happens to HCR, the Democrats will tear themselves apart, act in an utterly self-destructive manner and I will avoid watching cable tv even more than usual.
Yup.
AG
Just noticed this. Nate Silver now says Brown is a 3:1 favorite.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/01/538-model-posits-brown-as-31-favorite.html
I think Coakley will win comfortably. All the polls assumed very low Dem/indie turnout. I think many of the “won’t vote” responses were intended to make a point, not predict what the respondent will actually do on the day. If even MA voters prove stupid and shortsighted enough to throw everything away for the sake of some kind of petty spite, it might be time to just throw in the towel.
The narrative, of course, will be about how Obama is losing support, and thinking about the Dem response gives me too much heartburn to continue.
speaking of throwing
inaway the towel.imagine, if you will, the bat-shit crazy vilification that would be emanating from the rieichwing if coakley had posed for one of playboy’s girls on campus issues.
too funny. [h/t to the rude one]
>
Yup.
AG
I think Brown wins, but that it’ll be close. Too much garbage in the polling aggregators to really get a feel for it.
The dominant narrative will be “Democrats in Turmoil” one way or another. This is, of course, excellent news for Rudy! or something.
And, finally, the Democrats will do what they always do: the circular firing squad schtick. Even if they win. I’m always reluctant to call myself a Democrat, because with a few exceptions — you, folks here, JMM, and Atrios among them — it’s become clear to me for some time that the leadership and the base is about as reliable as an ARG poll.
Yup.
AG
I think it won’t matter. The lethargic pace of the Senate ensures almost nothing will be done for the rest of the term.
If it weren’t political suicide, I’d say the Dems should just fold up tents and wait until 2011 to do anything, then erase the filibuster and start jamming things through.
Read Krugman’s column today. He has annointed Obama an epic failure. No matter that he had to deal with a broken Senate which only had 60 votes for a total of the last 4 months. I don’t think any of the lowlife Dems like this know anything about how Bills become laws. Somehow this man alone is responsible for not passing a $2T stimulus bill by Executive Order I guess because it sure as hell could not make it thru the Senate.
Krugman has consistently claimed he is a “progressive” but he can’t be bothered to help his president. It has been a year of Obama Fail columns that Zsa Zsa Hamsher could have written. With “friends” like these……………..Dems are a big fail for not supporting their President. They helped this Orly Taitz/Andy Martin endorsed candidate in Mass win. They love that Brown called Obama a bastard. Well done Dems.
I read the piece, and it’s typical Krugman. More of a “we would have been much better of if we just did what he said” type of thing, which is the trend du jour going into the MA special election now that I think of it. He’s in good company lately. The media elites are all blowing Taps on the Obama administration. You wouldn’t know that the Dems still hold majorities in both Houses of Congress and occupy the White House. The Republicans are in the ascendancy! This is a movie that we’ll be seeing again and again – even when Republicans lose, they win (see NY 23 for example).
For “progressives,” this is all to the good because losing elections is how we move the Overton Window to the left, which will lead very quickly to President Kucinich. Or something.
Yup.
AG
Yes, I know this is a gloomy scenario. But even before the Brown thing, I have been concerned about the current inability to get anything through congress. Power and prestige have been accumulating in the executive for generations, and now the legislature is completely dysfunctional. Ultimately, the presidency will be seen as the only legitimate source of political action. This power won’t be seized by a democratic president, but it will be seized by a republican one, who will have the support of a core of true religious believers and a dedicated propaganda outfit (FNC). You betcha.
Am I being too gloomy if I agree with you? Especially number 3…
(OT, but when will see you? It’s been too long.)
I think you’re being too gloomy. Massachusetts liberals have been sleeping through this thing because everyone assumed Coakley would win easily. But Scott Brown has made enough noise that they’re waking up, even now at the last minute. Democratic turnout will be significantly better than expected and Coakley will prevail.
i would be delighted to be wrong, but my experience with this past local election was that Republicans came out to vote straight ticket and voice their displeasure with the new administration to their neighbors, while Dems stayed home. We got a couple of rightwing nutjobs on our school board as a result, and I’m concerned that the increased motivation of people who vote R is going to be a trend.
Yup.
That’ll be the dominant spin, alright.
AG
Too close to call, but I think Brown wins. The media will say that this means Obama’s agenda is too far Left, but I think the opposite is true, namely, people are disappointed that HCR is not real change but just political bushwa and more taxes on the middle class. If we had a viable third party, a leftist one, I think they would win a three-way election.
Democrats will respond by going even farther to the Right.
I think the Democratic Party is disintegrating like the Whig Party in the nineteenth century, which also broke up based on social issues. By 2016, there will be far Right Republican Party and probably a new party formed of Blue Dogs and
moderatemoney Republicans. I won’t guess the names, but the true names will be the Corporate Party and the Jesus Party.A possible scenario: Jesus Party takes the White House in 2012, wrecks the economy utterly, followed by the Corporate Party “saving” the country. Just like post-WWII Japan, people will be so glad to have jobs they will willingly enslave themselves to the multinational Corporations.
..people will be so glad to have jobs they will willingly enslave themselves to the multinational Corporations.
Imho, many of us are already there.
If this were 1948, I would predict Coakley. What the hell is happening to Massachusetts?
This looks terrible no matter how you slice it:
From http://www.pollster.com/blogs/what_to_believe_about_massachu.php
Predictions:
Chris Bowers nails this I think:
Hunch: Coakley by a small margin; GOP attempts to stall certification by any means necessary. Kinda like Minnesota.
OK, I’ll be the contrarian.
I’ll second that, though maybe not quite so vociferously. I think it’s super, super close, but Coakley wins by a nose: think Franken in MN, 200-500 votes. Almost certainly goes to recount, but Coakley prevails in the end. Dems, with a fire up their butt, finish up health care in the meantime.
In the long term, Coakley’s narrow win is a net good that lights the fire Dems need to get through 2010. Oh yeah, and its OFA and its 500K+ calls nationwide that put her over the top.
You wish.
AG
Yep. Number 6 would put an end to put downs using the word “pony” and pix of a “My Little Pony”. That in itself could change the tone of politics.
Politics in the U.S. is now tone deaf, Tarheel. It is synthesized, just like the music to which most Americans (don’t really) listen.
Press a button, the note comes out. Didn’t come out right? It’s digital. Fix it in the mix.
Make an appearance. Say something. Didn’t come out right? It’s digital. Fix it before the next news cycle.
Same same.
Ain’t no “fixing” something that isn’t real.
So it goes.
Hunker down, bro’, and fasten your safety belts.
The rough ride ain’t over. Not by a long shot.
AG
I used to think the world was 10% normals and 90% stupids. I now see the normals are just fictional characters played by stupids on TV.
Yours, Cap’n Stoopid
This is not like the Clinton attempt at health care reform. Most of us are going to receive a very stiff increase in our premiums with less coverage (like immediately) if this bill doesn’t pass. If the GOP doesn’t help pass this one it won’t take long until the next reform begins and a public option will probably be a mandate. The cost of our health insurance will be like buying a new car every year; it will really hurt! So let them have their brief moment…it will cost us for a while but in the end we will get something much better than what is proposed at this time.