What’s your bet on the final tally? We need 217 to win. I’m going to be optimistic and guess 223. As of now, it looks like it will be 220 if Stupak gets language in the executive order that doesn’t make pro-choicers bolt. But I think there will be a few more that come over at the last moment. What’s your over/under?
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BooMan
Martin Longman a contributing editor at the Washington Monthly. He is also the founder of Booman Tribune and Progress Pond. He has a degree in philosophy from Western Michigan University.
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mine is 222 min, 226 max,
I can’t wait until this part of voting is over, I am transfixed watching this today although it’s hard to listen to the Reps.
Well since we know that armageddon begins today or is it tomorrow, is everyone ready.
I’ve got my water bottles and flashlights ready. What should I use for the boils that will cover my body – I know I’m not getting called up.
Just what does Armageddon entail? Something about Locusts, right? Is it followed by the Rapture? Maybe the fundies will wrap themselves up in plastic sheeting and duct tape.
Or something like this:
Video from Six Feet Under “In case of Rapture” episode.
.
Just sufficient to pass, because there is less backbone under our chosen representatives than you presume BooMan.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."I’ve gone from 217 2 weeks ago, to 222 now.
I’m going with 222.
I would guess at least 220 Dem’s and maybe a couple more.
The real question for me is whether there are one or two smart Republicans who see the train that’s about to run them over and vote to be on the right side of history. Maybe Mr Cao of Louisiana? Anyone else with a conscience?
Cao is the only possible vote from the GOP.
When the House passed their bill with little room to spare, I felt at the time that Pelosi engineered it that way to allow those members with compelling political reasons to vote against it.
This time I suspect the idea is to swell the total a little, to 225 or more. I say this because I think the White House is aware that the optics of a larger than expected margin of victory would be helpful in generating momentum as the spotlight shifts to the Senate and out into the political airstream after that.
225. I think some of the windbaggers will feel the momentum and realize that voting “yes” gives them better cover than “no”. Anybody know if House rules allow the changing of votes after the tally is in?
219
I’ll go big. 230.
I’m thinking bigger, like you, 228-230. And I have no idea why. Just a gut feeling, I guess.
Stupak just got his pony. 230+, the historical element of health reform’s passage opens the floodgates
Yes, the deal is done!
I’m thinking that the final tally will be a bit closer than it ought to be, because Pelosi will “release” a few Democrats who represent politically regressive districts and allow them to vote ‘No.” I hate that kind of chickenshit politics.
We’ll soon see. I think she also has a stake in a little better vote than a squeaker.
It depends on how many are going to vote with history once passage is assured.
Minimum 220
Maximum 253 (whole caucus)
Likely 225 (I’m a little bit more optimistic on the vote with history angle)
225;for unknown reasons..
will surprise me. ergo, l think it’ll squeak by with 217-218.
there’ve been too many lines drawn in the sand for most of the traitorous d’s to back down now.
The question should be: Now that the “deemed passed” is out and there are two separate bills, will Blue Dogs welsh and not vote for the fix bill?
Another question that arose as I drove home is will the Senate amend the fix bill and send it back again to the House? Some GOP Congressman was predicting that.
Not quite 223. And I didn’t see a rush to be in on history.
Stupak is going to get White House support in the primary against Connie Saltonstall.
Now, can Reid deliver this time?
Since you haven’t got a thread on the actual vote yet — well, by now everyone knows how it turned out. Congratulations to all. I just wanted to say this: I believe I just saw the Republican Party turn into a fringe party. I say this because they are totally and irreversibly committed to a losing proposition.