I seem to be on a LBJ-kick, but considering the circumstances it’s understandable, right? In any case, consider the following, from Newt Gingrich:
Former Republican House speaker Newt Gingrich said Obama and the Democrats will regret their decision to push for comprehensive reform. Calling the bill “the most radical social experiment . . . in modern times,” Gingrich said: “They will have destroyed their party much as Lyndon Johnson shattered the Democratic Party for 40 years” with the enactment of civil rights legislation in the 1960s.
Passing the Civil Rights legislation did in fact shatter the Democratic Party, lead to a realignment of the parties, and help usher in the Reagan Revolution. The biggest price we paid for ending Jim Crow was the loss of a liberal consensus on economic matters in this country. It used to be that the southern racists in our country were generally in favor of the New Deal. That meant that we were safe from any kind of radical Randian experimentation with massive deregulation or extreme changes in progressive taxation. The middle class was protected. But, once the south abandoned the Democratic Party and linked up with country-club Republicans, all bets were off. We lost a great deal when we sacrificed the Democratic Party on the altar of Civil Rights. And, yet, would any of us, knowing the costs in advance, not make the same choices now?
It’s not even a close call.
Moreover, while there are some 35 or more Democratic members of the House who are going ‘no’ on health care today, they aren’t going to switch parties over it (albeit one Democrat from Alabama has already done exactly that). Almost all the members voting against health care reform are doing it because they are scared about their reelection prospects, but there is no comparison to the well-meaning, enlightened southern Democrats who felt compelled to vote against Civil Rights legislation. That era’s politicians faced certain defeat, while today their fate is uncertain.
It’s possible that the Republicans will pick up dozens of seats in the midterms, including a bunch from Democrats who voted for health care reform. But we won’t see former Democrats winning those elections. It won’t be a true realignment because the two parties will still believe the same things. And there is no reason to believe that the Democrats won’t come right back and win seats in 2012, using the same arguments that won them seats in 2006 and 2008.
In other words, there isn’t any relationship between 1964 and 2010. Newt Gingrich has been sniffing glue again. Democrats should do the right thing and not worry about the long-term political implications. Most people, including the Republicans, believe the Democrats will benefit greatly in the long-term.
