The Research 2000/Daily Kos Weekly Trending Poll is out with some post-health care numbers. Unsurprisingly, the president, the Democratic Party, Congressional Dems, and Nancy Pelosi are all enjoying a nice bump in public approval. Pelosi saw a three point jump, while Obama went up five points. Poor Harry Reid dropped a point. No doubt, he’s done a poor job of selling himself and his remarkable achievement in getting 60 votes on Christmas Eve. I guess these numbers are evidence that people blame him for the lack of a public option in the final bill but are giving a Pelosi a pass on the issue.
Who suffered the most? Republicans in Congress (-7) and John “Hell No” Boehner (-5) both saw their numbers tank. Only 17% approve of Boehner’s job performance, while 71% of disapprove of the job congressional Republicans are doing. Even in their homebase in the South, the congressional GOP only has 30%-56% approval.
Perhaps more importantly, the enthusiasm gap has closed (as we predicted it would) post-health care passage. Markos explains:
Three weeks ago, 40 percent of Democrats were likely or definitely going to vote, compared to 51 percent of Republicans — an 11 point “intensity gap”. Two weeks ago, as the battle for health care reform heated up, and GOP obstructionism came in full view, the numbers were 45 percent for Democrats, 56 percent for Republicans — both sides equally riled up.
This week, the numbers are 55 percent for Democrats, 62 percent for Republicans. While both sides saw big spikes in their numbers, Democrats were particularly energized, with that intensity gap narrowing from 11 points to a far more manageable seven. First [sic] the first time in over a year, Democrats have a reason to get excited about their party, and are newly engaging in the political process.
Isn’t it amazing how people actually like politicians who deliver on their promises and get hard stuff done? I think it’s particularly telling that Boehner took such a massive hit in his numbers. The Democrats are more popular than the Republicans in pretty much every category, and they have a slight money advantage, too. If the Dems continue to deliver accomplishments, that enthusiasm gap may disappear all together or even flip in the Democrats’ favor. The American people don’t want to vote for Republicans, but until this week they didn’t see much reason to vote for their incumbents either.
Harry Reid’s numbers might be up next week if succeeds in getting an unemployment insurance extension before Easter recess.
I would suggest that on the next round of the unemployment insurance extension, Reid have the bill drafted so that it gets paid out of waste, fraud, and abuse in GOP states. With military contracts spread around so much, there are probably a lot of candidates for this, which could add up collectively to paying for a few more extensions through one vote. I would hesitate to endanger ARRA funds to GOP states; but I wouldn’t hesitate to hint that I might think about seeing what GOP state-level pork might be being funded with that money.
It won’t disappear altogether. Ever.
It’s like Jesus said, “the emo kids you will always have with you.” Luckily they’re not as numerous as they think they are. Imagine if they really did constitute “the base” though. Shudder.
It’s like Jesus said, “the emo kids you will always have with you.”
Hmmm…is that from some new biblical translation that’s come out recently? I don’t remember that from my Sunday School days. But, after all, it has been a very, very long time.
It’s always good for our souls to be constantly reminded that the politically clueless are not an exclusive GOP franchise.
So what, these Rep are going to go home empty handed with any kind of accomplishments and sell their abilities left on the basis of their smile? Their tan? Who wants to buy something from a guy who’s one and only product is ‘hell no’?
Who wants to buy “Hell No”?
People who are afraid of the federal government or angry that the federal government caught them cheating on their taxes, treatment of their workers, or because the they had a bureaucratic problem with their government benefits. People who essentially don’t want to have to deal with government paperwork and who think that they are getting nothing for their taxes. People who want to shut down the federal government except for police and military functions. Gun-clingers.
There’s a pretty sizeable market for “Hell No”. Wish that it existed from 2001 to 2009. The political question this year is “How sizeable?” One cannot assume that the Reaganaut mindset will go on forever any more than liberals could assume that the New Deal mindset would go on forever.
But how can they continue? Look at how long healthcare took. They don’t have time to do much that’s important (climate legislation, financial legislation, labor legislation). The idea that Republicans would become more conciliatory because of this victory which be honest, is a victory for conservatism though not the GOP, is crazy. Their base will turn on them. They need to keep up lockstep HELL NO! or see their support collapse.
So what can they do?
I think the numbers will keep getting better as people begin to adjust to the insurance reform and its benefits. Dems will probably still lose seats in the House simply because the most vulnerable are in red or purple states, so Dems would have to take some Rep-held seats to make up for that. It doesn’t appear that the Reps are capable of coming up with anything to campaign on except the tired old “socialism” and “big government” lines. Their Big Plan to campaign on repealing HCR looks like a huge loser, and might just do the trick of turning over some Rep-held seats.
As noted though, everything depends on the Dems keeping up the momentum and delivering for the people. Hopefully their healthcare win will give them a permanent spine injection.
Interesting that only the South gives Obama a negative approval rating. If we drop that region from the numbers he gets 65%, which seems quite high for this point in a presidency.