Even though these types of polls don’t mean much, the results of the Southern Republican Leadership Conference presidential straw poll are still interesting.
Newt Gingrich 18% (321)
Mike Huckabee 4%
Gary Johnson 1%
Sarah Palin 18% (330)
Ron Paul 24% (438)
Tim Pawlenty 3%
Mike Pence 3%
Mitt Romney 24% (439)
Rick Santorum 2%
Neither Mitt Romney nor Tim Pawlenty showed up in New Orleans for the conference. Whether that was because they’re northerners or because of true scheduling conflicts, I don’t know, but it looks like Romney probably should have taken the time to speak to this audience since he managed to win the straw poll even without being there.
I don’t know if anyone would have predicted that a Mormon from Massachusetts who is closely associated with the national health care plan just passed by Congress would win a presidential straw poll in a southern GOP leadership conference after turning down an offer to appear there.
Almost as interesting is that Ron Paul only lost to Romney by a single vote. It looks like the Paulistas continue to infiltrate these GOP conferences and demonstrate outsized influence.
If Romney and Paul have anything in common, it’s their focus on economic matters over social issues. Notice how poorly moral crusaders Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum did in the poll. It’s also of interest that Romney did so well while Pawlenty got no traction at all.
I’d be tempted to argue that Romney’s numbers reflect a deep pragmatism on the part of the conferees, but then you have to match his numbers up against Ron Paul’s, and that argument doesn’t hold a lot of water.
Maybe it just reflects a fundamental split. A quarter just want someone who can win, a quarter want to completely overhaul the GOP in Paulist direction, and half are split up among various socially conservative long-shots. It’s hard to believe that these people have enough in common to even be able to talk to each other.
