While a lot of polling shows a quite tolerant attitude towards undocumented workers, Gallup shows how meaningless those results can be.
Most Americans have heard about Arizona’s tough new immigration law, and they generally support it. The law was passed partly in response to a lack of federal action on the issue. Since the Arizona bill became law, congressional Democrats have considered taking up the issue in the coming weeks, though this initial read on public opinion toward the Arizona law suggests Americans may not necessarily back an attempt to supersede or otherwise undermine it.
Meanwhile, the Democrats plan on bringing up an immigration bill even if they have no Republican support for it. If it passes, great, but in the much more likely scenario where it doesn’t pass, we have to ask ourselves…does trying and failing to pass a good immigration bill with 59 members of the caucus make it more or less likely that we’ll pass a good immigration bill next year when we have a smaller majority?
Yes, forcing the Republicans to filibuster an immigration bill will galvanize the Latino vote, perhaps mitigating our losses in the fall a bit, but from a policy point of view, isn’t it a dubious strategy, at best?
If this is what they want to do, I’ll support it and make arguments for why we need immigration reform. But, unless they can secure the Republican votes to pass something, I think it’s likely to result in the following:
It will stir up the worst instincts of the Republican Party, who will stand united in opposition to the bill, calling it amnesty, and racially polarizing the country even further than it is right now. But, despite this sickening display, the Republicans will still make major gains in the midterms (much of their gains are already cooked in the dough), giving the impression that the effort to pass immigration reform backfired (even if it actually helped). Then, next year, the Republicans will be even less inclined to tackle the issue, and Democrats will not even think of doing something without Republican support. The press, having seen the issue burn Bush and Obama in turn, will treat the issue like HillaryCare, and the only way to pass something in the next decade and a half will be to effectively let Tom Tancredo write the bill.
I’m sorry to be a pessimist on this issue, but I am. Most Americans like the Arizona law. It’s sad and depressing. But it does tell us something about the prospects of passing acceptable immigration reform between now and November. Doesn’t it?
