Florida Governor Charlie Crist will announce today that he is leaving the Republican Party and will seek a U.S. Senate seat as an independent. Chris Cillizza is correct in making the following observations:
Which side will he caucus with if elected?: Crist is almost certain to deflect this question, which will be asked of him repeatedly if he goes independent. But, his side-stepping won’t stop it from being asked until it’s answered. While a governor can get away with avoiding party labels — the essence of the job is competency and accomplishments not partisanship — a Senator simply cannot. Federal races are, by their very nature, far more partisan affairs and it’s impossible for any candidate to avoid answering the question of which side they will caucus with if they get elected. Crist will undoubtedly cast his decision as a sort of “pox on both your houses” choice but, at the end of the day, there is no independent caucus. (The two elected independents — Sens. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and Bernie Sanders of Vermont both caucus with Democrats.) Crist is almost certain to have to choose a side and, in so doing, runs the risk of losing votes — no matter which side he picks.
As I see it, Crist has almost no choice but to say that he will caucus with the Democrats. It’s not that making that declaration will help him win the election exactly, but his divorce from the Republican Party will be made total by the actions of the Republican Party.
Start with the fact that NRSC Chairman John Cornyn is dumping Crist despite having recruited him heavily to get into the race. Then consider that there will be coordinated campaign to defund his campaign by making him return money to his donors. And then there’s this from the Florida Times-Union (emphasis mine):
Most of Crist’s Republican supporters and fundraisers will probably abandon him; volunteer support might also evaporate. Anyone who works for Crist’s Senate campaign and wants to work in future GOP campaigns will have to seriously consider leaving. At a time when fundraising is already slowing down, Crist would have to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars rebuilding his organization.
While the Democratic Party will be supporting the winner of its primary (predicted right now to be Rep. Kendrick Meek), there will no comparable taboo on operatives who work for Crist ever working with the Democrats again. If Crist has any hope of staffing up, he’s going to have to turn to the centrist wing of Florida’s Democratic Party. He can have some success doing that if he promises to caucus with the Democrats, but not if he promises to caucus with the Republicans.
This is actually a useful development for demonstrating why I am so disdainful of third-party efforts to move the country in a better direction. I have nothing against a more progressive party pushing for more progressive change, but if you actually win election to Congress, you have to choose to caucus with either the Democrats or the Republicans if you want to have a seat on any committees. And if you want to keep those seats and your seniority, you have to show at least some allegiance to that party on procedural and substantive votes. There is no such thing as a true independent in Congress. Crist will have to make his choice, and if he chooses the Republicans he’s going to have trouble finding anyone to work for him and he’ll look like an idiot for promising to caucus with a party that has nothing but virulent and unhinged contempt for him.
If he wants to have any chance, Crist will eventually have to declare his intention to caucus with the Democrats. Unfortunately, this will severely diminish the prospects of a split on the right opening up an opportunity for the Democrat (presumably Rep. Meek) to pull off an upset victory. But it increases the chances that the Republicans will be lose a seat that they thought was safe.
