It’s easy to overlook the many accomplishments of the Obama administration in their first year because so many of them were relatively low profile, or were little more than course corrections. But it will be very hard to overlook what the administration accomplishes this year. Whatever its shortcomings (and they are considerable), the health care bill was the most significant progressive legislation passed in this country since the passage of Medicare in July 1965. This will be followed by the most significant financial reforms since Franklin Delano Roosevelt grappled with the Great Depression. Before September, we should see a second lifetime appointment to the Supreme Court confirmed. If the administration accomplishes nothing else, it will still have assured itself of being in a league with the administrations of both FDR and LBJ for enduring consequence and progressive change. But the administration will accomplish more.
I’ve taken more criticism for questioning the decision to take up immigration reform this year than on anything else I’ve written in the last five years, but I didn’t say anything different from what the president said yesterday. Basically, I didn’t see the political will to pass immigration reform this year in the Democratic Caucus, and so I thought it would not pass and would create political problems without accomplishing anything. Harry Reid has had to walk back his promise to tackle immigration reform next after the financial reforms, and he will be introducing an energy bill instead. This makes sense for a couple of reasons. First, the House has already passed their version of the bill and the Senate has done their work in committee. In other words, the Senate is ready to debate an energy bill, but the same cannot be said about any immigration bill. Second, Obama has a three-pronged approach to fixing our economy. The three prongs are fixing our health care system, enacting financial reforms, and converting us to a green economy. Those priorities should pass in that order so that Obama can say that he has succeeded in implementing his economic plan. Only when his vision for fixing our economy is complete should he move on to other pressing issues.
The need to focus on the economy and jobs, combined with unprecedented Republican stalling tactics, means that the administration is behind schedule on keeping their promises to some of their most important constituencies: including the LGBT community and Labor. I will never tell the gay community to be patient because they are in the right to demand action now. But the proof of Obama’s commitment will be in what he delivers before November 2012. I expect that his record will be mixed. At a minimum, I think he will have eliminated the Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell policy be then. I think there is a decent chance that the Employment Non-Discrimination Act will be law by then, too, but I am more doubtful that anything will be done to fix the Defense of Marriage Act. Some form of the Employee Free Choice Act should be passed by 2012, but if they don’t get to it this year it might not happen because of diminished majorities in Congress.
Keeping the long view, things are on track for an unbelievably successful and progressive presidency, but the big problem is still Afghanistan, which threatens to be Obama’s Vietnam if he doesn’t come to grips with reality. Our policy there is not working and has almost no prospect of working, even if the policy is changed.
