Congress is being asked to vote on another appropriations bill for billions more dollars to fund military operations in Afghanistan despite reservations among many members about the corrupt regime of Afghan leader, Hamid Karzai. Operations that many in the Pentagon are beginning to question from both an tactical and strategic standpoint:
WASHINGTON, May 10, 2010 (IPS) – Although Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal’s plan for wresting the Afghan provinces of Helmand and Kandahar from the Taliban is still in its early stages of implementation, there are already signs that setbacks and obstacles it has encountered have raised serious doubts among top military officials in Washington about whether the plan is going to work. […]
The outlook at the Pentagon and the White House on the nascent Kandahar offensive is also pessimistic, judging from the comment … by an unnamed “senior administration official”. The official told [WaPo reporter David] Ignatius the operation is “still a work in progress”, observing that McChrystal’s command was still trying to decide how much of the local government the military could “salvage” and how much “you have to rebuild”.
The irony of this “strategy” is that its goal, as stated in the Pentagon’s own report on conflict, the to bring the Taliban to the table to negotiate. But isn’t that why we went into Afghanistan 9 years ago? To get rid of the Taliban and its extremist Islamic fundamentalist government which provided a haven for terrorists? So now, after all this time, we hope to coerce these people to come to a peace conference.
Doesn’t this remind you of the Christmas bombing campaign Nixon ordered to get North Vietnam to come back to the Paris peace conference and cut a deal with Henry Kissinger? And we all remember how that turned out. We had our “Peace with Honor” which was simply a cover for the admission that the war had failed, and it was time for us to leave.
Apparently. General McChrystal still hopes to “win the war” but by convincing Obama that we need to maintain a significant military presence in Afghanistan past 2011, Obama’s stated goal for withdrawing our troops. The problem w have is that justifications like these were used in Vietnam to escalate and prolong that war as well, with ultimately no benefit to our country or the people of Vietnam.
The Soviet Union cracked in large part because they couldn’t win the war in Afghanistan despite a military “footprint” far larger than the one we have deployed there. The question we have to ask ourselves is whether it is worth the cost of staying in Afghanistan indefinitely?
With the world economy still fragile and ready to tumble into another crisis at any moment, with rampant unemployment at home, with a oil gushing into the Gulf of Mexico and floods in Tennessee what benefit do we really gain from pouring ever greater resources into Afghanistan?
We don’t need thousands of more troops to deploy predator drones and Special Forces units of that is the route Pentagon analysts see as the most viable means to degrade the terrorist presence in Pakistan and Afghanistan. If we really wish to occupy vast stretches of this mountainous country don’t we really require hundreds of thousands of troops on the ground there for generations to come?
Even the most rabid neo-conservatives are unlikely to support a military project of that scope and duration. Any politician who proposed such an effort would be committing political suicide. So why are we continuing this incremental escalation of a war that cannot be won by such measures? All for a war whose true costs won’t be fully known for years to come:
As economists Linda Bilmes and Joseph Stiglitz demonstrated in The Three Trillion Dollar War, their book on the cost of the Iraq war alone, adding in debt payments on moneys borrowed to fight that war, long-term care for veterans wounded in it, the war’s impact on energy prices, and other macroeconomic impacts, the current tax bill for the Iraq war must be at least tripled and probably quadrupled or more to arrive at its real long-term cost. (Similarly, the cost in lives must be multiplied by all those lives that could have been saved through other, better uses of the same funding.) The same obviously applies to the Afghan war.
The fact is that military spending is destroying the US economy. An excellent report from the National Priorities Project, “Security Spending Primer”, provides a summary of research that supports these basic and well-documented facts:
# Investing public dollars in the military produces fewer jobs than cutting taxes.
# Cutting taxes produces fewer jobs than investing public dollars in any of these areas: healthcare, education, mass transit, or construction for home weatherization and infrastructural repair.
# Investing public dollars in mass transit or education produces more than twice as many jobs as investing in the military.
# Investing public dollars in education produces better paying jobs than investing in the military or cutting taxes.
# Investing public dollars in any of these areas: healthcare, education, mass transit, construction for home weatherization and infrastructural repair has a larger direct and indirect economic impact than investing in the military or cutting taxes.
Ask yourself this question: Whose interests are really being served by continuing these mad military misadventures in Southwest Asia? One thing we know for certain: it isn’t in the interests of the vast majority of American citizens.
It isn’t even in the interest of the military itself. The Soviet military was more than decimated after the end of the Cold War, in large part because of the money wasted on trying to occupy Afghanistan and keep it in the Soviet Union;s orbit. Defense Secretary Gates himself, no liberal dove by any means, has already stated that Defense spending must be cut back in the current economic climate:
Increasing health care costs, a top-heavy uniformed and civilian management force, and big-ticket weapons systems are swelling the military’s budget at an “unsustainable” rate, Gates said. In response, Gates said, he has ordered the Defense Department’s military and civilian leaders to find savings of 2 to 3 percent — more than $10 billion of the Pentagon’s roughly $550 billion base budget — and shift spending toward war-fighting costs.
Wars are costly in terms other than dollars. They spread misery and set the stage for more conflicts in the future. Ultimately, if they do not pay for themselves (and no one can argue that Iraq and Afghanistan have provided a treasure trove of tribute) they can ruin a nation’ economy, and poison its politics for decades. Just ask the French, the English, the Germans and the Russians about the costs of two world wars, the first which led inexorably to the second. Costs in lives and human suffering for which no price can be calculated.
Our own experience with Vietnam (the political polarization, the rise of extremism on the right, the economic slump of the seventies) is being repeated today, but on an even larger scale. To be blunt we simply cannot afford to continue to occupy Afghanistan unless we wish to destroy the the underlying foundation for our nation’s future. We need to spend our resources wisely to rebuild what a decades of conservative policies and the active neglect of our greatest resource, our people, have destroyed.
The National Priorities Project is correct. A nation’s ultimate security is based on the health and well being of its people. The wars we are fighting are like parasites sucking away our national lifeblood for the benefits of a few. It is time to just say no to more war funding. Our real national security as at risk: our democracy, our economy, our politics and our opportunity to act as a force for good in the world are all at stake.
Ha, ha ha on me. Robert Gates is the only person in Washington, DC, with a lick of sense.
Well let’s just say he’s putting out the meme that if you (i.e.the defense industry, etc.) want these wars you will have to lose business elsewhere. It’s an implied threat.
His best quality is that he is not Rumsfeld or Peter Bienert.
Better we should use the money to bail out our own postal service. Best of all, Obama should purge USPS management of all the Bush appointees who are trying to run the service into the ground as a prelude to privatization, but Obama will never do anything to imply that W was wrong.
“The question we have to ask ourselves is whether it is worth the cost of staying in Afghanistan indefinitely?”
Look, if we withdraw from Afghanistan, psychotic assholes like Frank Gaffney will go on hardball and say Obama has “surrendered” and this is a prelude to muslim domination and sharia law, among other things. Then corporate media types will start wondering aloud if Obama is making us weaker, more vulnerable, etc. So, obviously, if we have to spend a trillion here or there to keep up our number 1 global gangbanger rep, we have to do it. Again, it’s well established that presidents/presidential candidates have to be on record as willing to bomb, invade, or occupy foreign countries in order to establish their national security bona fides.
More seriously, Obama really just annoyed the hell out of me with all that B.S. about “I have listened to our generals and they tell me we can do X in X time period”. Look, generals like McCrystal are basically like the world’s biggest construction contractors. I once saw a documentary about how the Army Corps of Engineers had totally transformed the Mississippi delta (largely for the worse), and one of their flacks said something that sums up pentagon thinking: “Given the right amount of time and money, there’s nothing we can’t do with the Mississippi river”. Like, with the right amount of money, we could put the river in space! This was pre-Katrina. So OF COURSE generals like McCrystal are going to tell Obama they can accomplish whatever they want in Afghanistan. That’s their bureaucratic prime directive. It doesn’t matter if they can’t or won’t. It’s just like developing new jet fighters or whatever: the air force goes to Lockheed and says we want something that goes mach 6, is invisible to radar, has a 20,000 mile range unrefueled, takes off from unimproved fields, and Lockheed goes, sure, we can do that, just give us a line of credit.
Perhaps someone should tell Frank G. and everyone else that Afghanistan and Iraq will still be ‘muslim dominated’ even if we militarily pacify them.
Not true. With the latest atmospheric freedom dispersal technologies, we are installing jeffersonian democracy in various central-asian states. Soon they won’t be client states but partners in our glorious neo-liberal march to jobs jobs jobs.
that won’t change their religion..
Comparing the Vietnam debacle with one that potentially confronts Afganistan via peace with the Taliban is not really legitimate. Back then we had fears of the domino effect, that if we did not hold the line on the spread of communism, our democracy would eventually be threatened.
But in Afganistan, the threat is from Islamic extremists, the Taliban, who would bring back their government by religion, their theocracy, as we saw in the past enforced by bearded religious police on the street, who beat women for glancing out of their burkas too provocatively or not stepping aside when men approached. Although negotiating with the Taliban might lead to a temporary democracy, I don’t see it lasting long once NATO and the Americans, Satan, left.
So I am concerned about the future of Afganistan and fear its return to the past. And there do not seem to be any quick answers.
Agreed. In my opinion the path to peace in the region is through Kashmir and Palestine. Palestine, for obvious reasons. I think both sides of the Kashmir debate have skewed it, but I see Pakistan as the aggressor there. If they’re awarded the entire Kashmir area, where does it end? They’d continue to demand India give up provinces with Muslim majorities.
That said…I really do not see how we could actually put an end to global Islamic fundamentalism, relieve this “strategic” stress from Afghanistan and bring about a lasting stability in the entire region without fixing the Kashmir issue.
India will have to compromise for the greater good, unfair as it may seem to its populace.
In return, the US should sweeten the deal and favor India over China on economic and military grounds.
Regarding making deals with the Taliban, I knew it was what the administration had in mind when he mentioned leaving by 2011. There’s no other way to do it, unless we’re willing to commit billions upon billions for schools and hospitals and infrastructure. America will never agree to that, which is unfortunate because we don’t seem to mind sending billions and billions worth of bullets and bombs.
Even if Congress agreed to such an investment — Who listens to the American people any more? — the strategy of the Taliban would be to attack the construction projects and the construction workers.
My sense was that the 2011 date depended on Karzai not getting re-elected — but Karzai pulled a George W.
Right, which to my understanding is where the military role comes into effect.
Still, it’s not happening.
The US military is incapable of being able to protect structures that are built for a variety of reasons, including the “Kill, kill, kill” mindset that the soldiers have gotten themselves into. Sitting passively and defending is not their style. Nor is it the style of the security contractors that the US has involved in the area.
Were there locals in the Afghan military who were committed to protecting the facilities in their own communities, they might be able to get the support of the people and organize defense of the development. But the Afghan military has been made utterly corrupt by the Karzai government.
It’s not happening because there is no way to make it happen without the cooperation of large segments of the Afghan people and the Karzai government. There is no state; it’s the classical Hobbesian “war of all against all”.
Nothing to disagree with here, as per usual with your posts. Cosigned.
On Q1, it wasn’t the war that pulled the US out of the Depression; it was the deficit spending. The US grew pretty rapidly from 1934 to 1937, but faltered again in 1938 because Roosevelt tried to cut the deficit. Only when deficit spending for the war ramped up – both in the US and in Allied countries – did the economy improve enough to bring unemployment down to an acceptable level.
Answers:
2. If you know a disaster is coming one way or another, and I mean a really nasty one, doesn’t it make sense to attempt to control the timing and nature of it’s course? All I am saying is if I (a total nobody) saw this economic blowup coming for years (boo might even be able to dig up the ancient email chains from 5-6 years ago that include my bro and a few of their friends/crazed libertarian associates), why oh why wouldn’t folks who could implement the above ‘soft landing’ policy do just that?
Oh, and thanks for the very, very good answers.
I always come back to the thought that the area has likely seen a hundred generations of a warring peoples. Tribal warfare is engrained in their culture, their interpretaion of religion and the scope of their economy. If one were to compare it to the American path to beat into the dirt the Native American Indians and then corral them into Reservations, that’s only been going on for seven generations and look how well that has worked from the Indian perspective?
So it’s generations to come, not years or decades.
The biggest danger for US policy in Afghanistan is the fallacy of sunk costs, which states that it would be dishonorable to end the war after we’ve put so much money into it and lost so many lives.
The fallacy of sunk costs is what guerrilla armies depend on. It bleeds their opponents to weakness. At which point the “pitiful helpless giant” or “paper tiger” withdraws to nurse its wounds. And chickenhawks are the first to play into this “Vietnam syndrome” thinking.
The most effective thing that we can do for the region is taking their enemy away. Then the politics can settle back into domestic politics.
We should not take the bait that radical Sunnis are putting out with their attacks in Iraq; we should leave there on schedule. After all Iran has the back of the Shi’ite government, doesn’t it Mr. Chalabi.
After the coming Kandahar offensive, we should leave Afghanistan and leave Harmid Karzai to his fate. If he wants to have a government with the Taliban, let him. But on leaving we should say that our work is done and that if Afghanistan becomes a haven for al Quaeda again, the US will attack those al Quaeda strongholds. In other words, declare victory and leave.
Bush lost Afghanistan as soon as he pulled our troops out to invade Iraq. The rest, the tragic waste of lives and treasure, has just been an effort to find a way to get out with dignity. Which I don’t believe can be done. THAT is the real fool’s dream.