Here is some mixed good news:
Democrats picked up ground in a new generic balllot poll, but anti-incumbent sentiment remains intense.
Democrats lead Republicans 45%-40% in the most recent Associated Press poll, a reversal from Republicans’ 44%-41% lead last month.
But only 36% of respondents want to re-elect their own member of Congress, a 7% drop from last month.
The Dems need a much more substantial generic ballot lead than five points if they are going to avoid taking substantial losses in the midterms because we have lower turnout and lower voter intensity. But a five point lead is a good start. We just have to expand it to 8-10% to give ourselves a fair shot. I’ve never seen anti-incumbent sentiment this high, and I can’t predict what it will mean. We’ll probably see more upsets in primaries. Beyond that, I’m a little concerned because the Dems have so many more freshmen and sophomores who aren’t that entrenched in their seats. But, as the defeats of Bennett and Mollohan showed, long-time incumbents are not safe.
Do you plan to vote for your representative?
