Now that Ken Lewis has endorsed her, I think Elaine Marshall is in a solid position to win her run-off election against DSCC-backed Cal Cunningham in the North Carolina senate race. That will be further proof that the Washington Establishment has no clue what’s going on in this election cycle. When given a choice, Democratic voters are opting for change. Sometimes, as in West Virginia’s First District, the voters are opting for a more conservative candidate. But in most of these races, the Democrats are opting for less ‘centrist’ options. And the kicker is that the polls are pretty consistent in showing that these more ‘liberal’ candidates have a better chance of winning in November than the people they’re defeating. We’re in better shape as a party because the voters are rejecting the party’s advice. That makes it pretty hard to justify giving money to the DSCC, DCCC, or DNC. We’re doing a better job of spreading the wealth around than they are.
There’s a funny article in Politico that mocks the Republicans’ failures last night and dismisses their chances in November as nothing more than a mirage. I’m not ready to say that, but I think the one thing that analysts like Stu Rothenberg, Charlie Cook, and Larry Sabato have been missing is the weakness of Republican candidates. I mean, it is troubling to see Harry Reid’s reelection numbers until you realize his opponent wants us to pay for health care with live poultry. Rand Paul is certifiably insane. Pat Toomey and Rob Portman have the worst possible biographies for an election cycle in this kind of economy. Kelly Ayotte is a dimwit. David Vitter likes to pay prostitutes to dress him up in diapers. Marco Rubio is as likely to be indicted as he is to be a U.S. Senator next year. If the people of Delaware want change as much as the people of Pennsylvania, then I don’t think promoting Mike Castle is going to be high on their agenda.
The Democrats may not be looking so hot in Connecticut or Florida these days, but wait until people get a look at World Wrestling Entertainment co-CEO Linda McMahon. And Charlie Crist, if he wins, will probably caucus with the Democrats.
On paper, the Democrats look like they’re in big trouble and could lose the Senate. But the people the Republicans have chosen to run aren’t of a high caliber at all. In fact, they are collectively so bad that I can actually envision the Democrats breaking even or even adding a seat in November.
The North Dakota seat is lost. But pick-up opportunities exist in Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio, Kentucky, and New Hampshire. Other than Florida, I am feeling increasingly bullish on all those races. And I still think Louisiana could become a tight race. David Vitter is such a dickhead that I can’t believe he’s safe in any constituency.
Jenson
This is your turf, Boo, so two questions: Was Critz’s win really a triumph for the DCCC? Since he seems like the better and more progressive candidate, that would seem to break the mold.
Do you have a read on where all the pox-on-both-your-houses anger is coming from in PA12? I’d have guessed teaparty types, but Critz’s convincing win suggests otherwise. And yet left-populist anger seems even less likely. PA12 looks like it could be the microcosm that tells us a lot about the political winds nationwide. So what do you think is going on there?
The 12th District is like another planet from the 6th, where I live. I don’t have a clue what’s going on there.
But, a anti-choice, pro-gun Democrat who promised to keep Murtha’s pork flowing to the district beat a carbon copy Republican jackass. We’ve done this in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, North Carolina, and, now, Western Pennsylvania. Formula seems to work until you get a Stupak Amendment or something.
Given the struggling economy right now, the Democrats can perhaps hope that even a slightly improving jobs situation come November will take the wind out of the Republicans’ sails.
I think an improving economy will be helpful, but there isn’t enough time for the jobs situation to improve that much. The problem for the GOP is articulating a positive agenda for what they want the government to do. Without the FEAR MEGAPHONE used by Bush/Cheney, it’s hard to drive that message. All the energy on the right is with bigots and Paulist lunatics. You can’t win with Newt Gingrich calling the president a Nazi and with fringe freaks.
Overall this is a huge breakthrough for Dems who have chafed under the DLC/”centrist” whip for far too long. It is also an organizing moment. Whatever we may think of folks like Sestak and Halter, the important thing is that they know first-hand what an organized left of the party can do for them and to them. Now we have to redouble our efforts to make sure Halter goes on to win the runoff and Sestak the general.
We are also in position to hold the party leadership to account for their incompetence and conflicts of interest. I think we’ll see bolder moves leftward from Dems who can read the auguries. (Harry Reid suddenly coming out for unlimited liability for oil spills is a telling example). We’ll have to make some hard choices and do some hard and costly work to turn those timid explorations into real momentum.
It’s a scary moment as well as a triumphal one. For the first time in years, we can credibly take on some very powerful forces. The results of the runoffs and of the general will determine whether the Dem Party begins to wear a new face, or instead reinforces the conventional wisdom that politics is best left to the “experts”. Whether we have what it takes to seize the pivotal moment and force real change on the political landscape, or whether we’d rather, after all, just sit around and impotently bitch. Everything is in place. Now it’s up to us to show we know what to do with opportunity that’s been a long time coming.
I like the optimism, and I like yesterday’s results.
Only way I can see Vitter becoming vulnerable is if the oil spill can be linked to Republicans generally and to Vitter’s votes in particular. And unfortunately, on that front, the Obama administration is not exactly covering itself in glory… I do think their response is competent, but it’s politically hamhanded. I have absolutely no clue why NOAA continues to do inadequate investigation of the spill rate and extent, and why I hear Lubchenko defensively minimizing the impact and questioning the evidence in interviews. What the heck?
Maybe NOAA is still full of Bush appointees? One thing that Clinton took great care to do was organize his shadow government between November and January, so they were ready to replace Bush (Sr.) appointees with Clinton appointees. Obama, on the other hand, is trying to keep Bush people in place out of some kind of misplaced bi-partisan ecumenical theory.
But Lubchenko herself was an Obama nominee who was supposed to be a solid voice for the environment. Why she can’t acknowledge that the gusher is likely going at a rate much greater than 5000 barrels per day – I have no clue.
In the meantime, I looked in at the New Orleans news site NOLA.com, usually a source of great anti-Obama sentiment, and found multiple conservative commentators saying that against all expectation, they really want the feds to take over.
This is a genuine crisis that should not be wasted, and that will affect not only this fall’s election but Louisiana’s attitude toward Democrats and the President long into the future.
Not to mention the apalling effects of the spill, now estimated at 4,000 barrels per hour!
Oh you haven’t lived in Louisiana, have you Booman? 😛
Agree Booman. And I find it hilarious that the pundits and HuffPo, etc are saying the administration is reeling over Spector and Lincoln. Hilarious. Obama would prefer Sestak and Halter, even though he can’t come out and say that they should easily figure it out that he would want the stronger candidate – that being a non-incumbent.
I don’t know if he does prefer .. but he should .. then again .. he should have preferred Lamont over HolyJoe .. and we know how that turned out
THE WHITE HOUSE VIEW — David Axelrod, in a telephone interview just after Specter fell: “For us, the most important race was the only general-election race on the ballot, which was the special in Pennsylvania. When Murtha passed away, the Republican Party was very bullish on winning that seat. The Democrat won by more than a few points there. So the conventional wisdom about this year is suspect. If you have a Democratic candidate who runs a good, strong race, they can win — and they can win in a challenging district.”
–Axe, on Rand Paul: “The Republican Party became narrower still tonight. … The Republican Party further defined itself.”
–Axe, on Specter: “We appreciate the courageous votes he cast in the last year and a half. And on that basis, we gave him our support and our help. But everyone understood that was going to be a tough race.”
–Axe, on November: “This was an encouraging sign tonight, but I have no illusions. We are the party in power in a time of great economic upheaval. But I’m encouraged by what I saw tonight. We are prepared for battle. We’ll grind it out, district by district, race by race. We have a good story to tell.”
Thanks for that reply. It still doesn’t say much because as they ought to know, party switchers generally have a short self life.