Now that Ken Lewis has endorsed her, I think Elaine Marshall is in a solid position to win her run-off election against DSCC-backed Cal Cunningham in the North Carolina senate race. That will be further proof that the Washington Establishment has no clue what’s going on in this election cycle. When given a choice, Democratic voters are opting for change. Sometimes, as in West Virginia’s First District, the voters are opting for a more conservative candidate. But in most of these races, the Democrats are opting for less ‘centrist’ options. And the kicker is that the polls are pretty consistent in showing that these more ‘liberal’ candidates have a better chance of winning in November than the people they’re defeating. We’re in better shape as a party because the voters are rejecting the party’s advice. That makes it pretty hard to justify giving money to the DSCC, DCCC, or DNC. We’re doing a better job of spreading the wealth around than they are.
There’s a funny article in Politico that mocks the Republicans’ failures last night and dismisses their chances in November as nothing more than a mirage. I’m not ready to say that, but I think the one thing that analysts like Stu Rothenberg, Charlie Cook, and Larry Sabato have been missing is the weakness of Republican candidates. I mean, it is troubling to see Harry Reid’s reelection numbers until you realize his opponent wants us to pay for health care with live poultry. Rand Paul is certifiably insane. Pat Toomey and Rob Portman have the worst possible biographies for an election cycle in this kind of economy. Kelly Ayotte is a dimwit. David Vitter likes to pay prostitutes to dress him up in diapers. Marco Rubio is as likely to be indicted as he is to be a U.S. Senator next year. If the people of Delaware want change as much as the people of Pennsylvania, then I don’t think promoting Mike Castle is going to be high on their agenda.
The Democrats may not be looking so hot in Connecticut or Florida these days, but wait until people get a look at World Wrestling Entertainment co-CEO Linda McMahon. And Charlie Crist, if he wins, will probably caucus with the Democrats.
On paper, the Democrats look like they’re in big trouble and could lose the Senate. But the people the Republicans have chosen to run aren’t of a high caliber at all. In fact, they are collectively so bad that I can actually envision the Democrats breaking even or even adding a seat in November.
The North Dakota seat is lost. But pick-up opportunities exist in Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio, Kentucky, and New Hampshire. Other than Florida, I am feeling increasingly bullish on all those races. And I still think Louisiana could become a tight race. David Vitter is such a dickhead that I can’t believe he’s safe in any constituency.
